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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2020.02.07.938720

Climate explains geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents

Caldwell, J. M.·LaBeaud, A. D.·Lambin, E. F.·Stewart-Ibarra, A. M.·Ndenga, B. A.·Mutuku, F. M.·Krystosik, A. R.·Ayala, E. B.·Anyamba, A.·Borbor-Cordova, M. J.·Damoah, R.·Grossi-Soyster, E. N.·Heras Heras, F.·Ngugi, H. N.·Ryan, S. J.·Shah, M. M.·Sippy, R.·Mordecai, E. A.
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Abstract

Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28 - 85% for vectors, 44 - 88% for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections.

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Caldwell, J. M., LaBeaud, A. D., Lambin, E. F., Stewart-Ibarra, A. M., Ndenga, B. A., Mutuku, F. M., Krystosik, A. R., Ayala, E. B., Anyamba, A., Borbor-Cordova, M. J., Damoah, R., Grossi-Soyster, E. N., Heras Heras, F., Ngugi, H. N., Ryan, S. J., Shah, M. M., Sippy, R., Mordecai, E. A.. 2020-02-07. Climate explains geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.07.938720

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