Trade-off between virulence and dispersal drives parasite evolution at experimental invasion front

Abstract

Eco-evolutionary processes may play an important role in the spatial spread of infectious disease. Current theory predicts more exploitative parasites to evolve in highly connected populations or at the front of spreading epidemics. However, many parasites rely on host dispersal to reach new populations. This may lead to conflict between local transmission and global spread, possibly counteracting selection for higher virulence. Here, we used the freshwater host Paramecium caudatum and its bacterial parasite Holospora undulata to investigate parasite evolution under an experimental range expansion scenario with natural host dispersal. We find that parasites evolving at experimental range fronts favoured higher dispersal rates of infected hosts than did parasites evolving in core populations. Front parasites further showed lower levels of virulence (host division and survival) and delayed development of infection, consistent with parameter estimates from an epidemiological model that we fitted on experimental time-series data. This combined evidence suggests an evolutionary trade-off between virulence and host-mediated dispersal, with a concomitant reduction in the investment into horizontal transmission. Our experiment illustrates how parasite evolution can be shaped by divergent selection encountered in different segments of an epidemic wave. Such an interplay between demography and spatial selection has important implications for the understanding and management of emerging diseases, and, more generally, for biological invasions and other non-equilibrium scenarios of spreading populations. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENTWhat drives parasite evolution in spatially expanding epidemics? Many parasites require dispersal of infected hosts to reach new patches, and this may produce specific adaptations enhancing spatial spread. We performed experimental range expansions in an aquatic model system, with natural dispersal of infected hosts. Parasites from experimental range fronts were less virulent and interfered less with host dispersal, but also invested less in horizontal transmission than parasites from the range core. Thus, dispersal adaptation at the front may come at a cost of reduced horizontal transmission, a trade-off rarely considered in theoretical models on parasite virulence evolution. These results have important implications in the context of emerging diseases, and for parasite evolution during biological invasions or other spatial non-equilibrium scenarios.