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bioRxiv · 10.1101/2020.01.23.915447

Deforestation in Belize- What, Where and Why

Folkard-Tapp, H. R.
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Abstract

The tropical forests of Belize are a dynamic environment influenced by much disturbance throughout their natural history. In recent times, logging and agriculture have once more become the dominant drivers of land use change, yet the Belizean forests remain some of the most complete swathes of forest in the region. However, it is largely unknown how the abundance of specific forest types has changed. This study aims to critically assess whether valuable habitat types have been disproportionately affected by deforestation between 1986 and 2018. ENVI Classic 5.5 was used to calculate the NDVI values of Landsat imagery, with values over 0.6 deemed to indicate primary forest. ArcMap 10.6 was used for detecting change in forest cover between 1986 and 2018, in addition to digitising colonial maps. Results show variation in the percentage of forest lost between habitat types, with a bias towards forests fragmented by or replaced by agriculture, particularly in the north and along the Guatemalan border. The protected area network was found overall to have little influence on deforestation, though this varies between reserves. Of the three forest types experiencing the highest percentage of forest loss, only Ensino-Pixoy occurs exclusively outside protected areas. Cohune Santa-Maria and Sapote-Mahogany are found at least partially within protected areas and experience loss within them. Analysis of IUCN ratings of forest species revealed data deficiency, particularly concerning taxa indigenous to Mesoamerica, against which this study recommends further vegetation studies. to allow recommendations for protection of particularly threatened forest types. A review of management strategies in protected areas, especially the Caracol Archaeological Reserve, is necessary to avert the worrying deforestation trends this study has identified. The country-wide deforestation data can be used to advise future forest policy as well as calculation of national carbon stocks or determining integrity of ecosystem services.

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Folkard-Tapp, H. R.. 2020-01-24. Deforestation in Belize- What, Where and Why. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.915447

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