Ignoring fossil age uncertainty leads to inaccurate topology and divergence times in time calibrated tree inference

Abstract

Time calibrated trees are challenging to estimate for many extinct groups of species due to the incompleteness of the rock and fossil records. Additionally, the precise age of a sample is typically not known as it may have occurred at any time during the time interval spanned by the rock layer. Bayesian phylogenetic approaches provide a coherent framework for incorporating multiple sources of evidence and uncertainty. In this study, we simulate datasets with characteristics typical of Palaeozoic marine invertebrates, in terms of character and taxon sampling. We use these datasets to examine the impact of different age handling methods on estimated topologies and divergence times obtained using the fossilized birth-death process. Our results reiterate the importance of modeling fossil age uncertainty, although we find that the overall impact of fossil age uncertainty depends on both fossil taxon sampling and character sampling. When character sampling is low, different approaches to handling fossil age uncertainty make little to no difference in the accuracy and precision of the results. However, when character sampling is high, sampling the fossil ages as part of the inference gives topology and divergence times estimates that are as good as those obtained by fixing ages to the truth, whereas fixing fossil ages to incorrect values results in higher error and lower coverage. Modeling fossil age uncertainty is thus critical, as fixing incorrect fossil ages will negate the benefits of improved fossil and character sampling.