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bioRxiv · 10.1101/121418

Quantifying The Fitness Benefit And Cost Of Cefixime Resistance In Neisseria gonorrhoeae To Inform Prescription Policy

Whittles, L. K.·White, P. J.·Didelot, X.
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Abstract

Gonorrhea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England. Over 41,000 cases were recorded in 2015, more than half of which occurred in men who have sex with men (MSM). As the bacterium has developed resistance to each first-line antibiotic in turn, we need an improved understanding of fitness benefits and costs of antibiotic resistance to inform control policy and planning. Cefixime was recommended as a single dose treatment for gonorrhea from 2005 to 2010, during which time resistance increased and subsequently declined. We developed a stochastic compartmental model representing the natural history and transmission of cefixime sensitive and resistant strains of Neisseria gonorrhoeae in MSM in England, which was applied to data on diagnoses and prescriptions between 2008 and 2015. We estimated that asymptomatic carriers play a crucial role in overall transmission dynamics, with about 40% of infections remaining asymptomatic and untreated, accounting for 96% of onward transmission. The fitness cost of cefixime resistance in the absence of cefixime usage was estimated to be such that the number of secondary infections caused by resistant strains is only about half as much as for the susceptible strains, which is insufficient to maintain persistence. However, we estimated that treatment of cefixime-resistant strains with cefixime was unsuccessful in 84% of cases, representing a fitness benefit of resistance. This benefit was large enough to counterbalance the fitness cost when 31% of cases are treated with cefixime, and when more than 51% of cases were treated with cefixime the resistant strain had a net fitness advantage over the susceptible strain. Our findings have important implications for antibiotic stewardship and public health policies, and in particular suggest that cefixime could be used to treat a minority of gonorrhea cases without raising resistance levels.

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Whittles, L. K., White, P. J., Didelot, X.. 2017-03-28. Quantifying The Fitness Benefit And Cost Of Cefixime Resistance In Neisseria gonorrhoeae To Inform Prescription Policy. https://doi.org/10.1101/121418

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