bioRxiv Science⌕ Search
Home/Archive/bioRxiv

bioRxiv · 10.1101/112730

Time-delayed biodiversity feedbacks and the sustainability of social-ecological systems.

Lafuite, A.-S.·Loreau, M.
View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

The sustainability of coupled social-ecological systems (SESs) hinges on their long-term ecological dynamics. Land conversion generates extinction and functioning debts, i.e. a time-delayed loss of species and associated ecosystem services. Sustainability theory, however, has not so far considered the long-term consequences of these ecological debts on SESs. We investigate this question using a dynamical model that couples human demography, technological change and biodiversity. Human population growth drives land conversion, which in turn reduces biodiversity-dependent ecosystem services to agricultural production (ecological feedback). Technological change brings about a demographic transition leading to a population equilibrium. When the ecological feedback is delayed in time, some SESs experience population overshoots followed by large reductions in biodiversity, human population size and well-being, which we call environmental crises. Using a sustainability criterion that captures the vulnerability of an SES to such crises, we show that some of the characteristics common to modern SESs (e.g. high production efficiency and labor intensity, concave-down ecological relationships) are detrimental to their long-term sustainability. Maintaining sustainability thus requires strong counteracting forces, such as the demographic transition and land-use management. To this end, we provide integrative sustainability thresholds for land conversion, biodiversity loss and human population size - each threshold being related to the others through the economic, technological, demographic and ecological parameters of the SES. Numerical simulations show that remaining within these sustainable boundaries prevents environmental crises from occurring. By capturing the long-term ecological and socioeconomic drivers of SESs, our theoretical approach proposes a new way to define integrative conservation objectives that ensure the long-term sustainability of our planet.

Source connections

Explore related subjects

ecologyPreprint

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Lafuite, A.-S., Loreau, M.. 2017-03-01. Time-delayed biodiversity feedbacks and the sustainability of social-ecological systems.. https://doi.org/10.1101/112730

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related preprints

bioRxiv2026

Particle-based representation of phytoplankton modulates emergent coexistence and biogeography in a model ocean

Phytoplankton communities sustain the marine food web through primary productivity. These communities sustain a high diversity of species, all of which must draw from the same finite nutrient supply. The mechanisms driving phytoplankton biogeography and succession, as well as those enabling high diversity, remain incompletely understood. Here, we compare emerging patterns of biogeography, richness, and diversity in a size-structured phytoplankton community as it is advected and diffused within an idealized North Atlantic double-gyre circulation, using both Eulerian and Lagrangian (particle-based) modeling (PBM) frameworks. When a sufficient number of particles is modeled, the PBM, which resolves mortality at the particle level, produces stronger seasonal variability in biomass in the northern gyre and less stable and higher biomass in the southern gyre, while reproducing large-scale chlorophyll patterns observed by satellite. These contrasting dynamics are accompanied by distinct regional diversity patterns: local richness and diversity are generally higher in the PBM than in the Eulerian model in the northern gyre, with differences depending on the mortality threshold, whereas in the oligotrophic southern gyre, PBM local richness increases with particle number, while Eulerian richness is more sensitive to the mortality threshold. The PBM also produces a dynamic and emergent biogeographical structure that is more robust to the mortality threshold than the Eulerian model. Finally, Lagrangian variability in environmental conditions experienced by particles shows a stronger impact compared to the local Eulerian variability in the Northern gyre and stresses variable sensitivity to environmental histories. Together, these results suggest that the discrete representation of biomass fundamentally alters mortality, biogeography, and emergent coexistence patterns in model plankton ecosystems.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2026

Concrete waste as a source of calcium and alkalinity for coccolithophore cultivation: an experimental test of carbon dioxide removal and sequestration

Cultivation of calcifying microalgae has been proposed as a route to carbon dioxide removal (CDR), but biogenic calcification releases CO2 unless the calcium supplied also adds alkalinity. We used cultures of the coccolithophore Chrysotila sp to test whether hydrated lime (Ca(OH)2), supplied as a reagent or within ground waste concrete, can provide both calcium and alkalinity. In a 26-day factorial batch experiment, we monitored pH, nitrate and dissolved calcium. Calcite was quantified by thermogravimetric analysis. Nitrate concentration decreased and calcite accumulated in all algal treatments, indicating that lime or concrete did not inhibit growth or calcification. Lime and concrete raised culture pH significantly whereas the algal growth rate inferred from nitrate drawdown did not differ among treatments. Calcite production was 3.6-fold higher with lime than in seawater (4.5 vs. 1.2 mg L-1 d-1) and highly variable with concrete; lime and concrete cultures remained supersaturated with respect to calcite ({Omega} {approx} 7-10 vs. 0.2). Carbonate-system calculations indicate that the added alkalinity raises the equilibrium CO2 uptake capacity of the medium by ca. 3.4 mmol kg-1, offsetting CO2 released by calcification. These results provide proof of concept for coupling coccolithophore cultivation with concrete waste reuse for CDR.

ecology↗
bioRxiv2026

Intraspecific trait variation shapes macro-scale patterns ofniche breadth and range size

Morphological variation within species may promote adaptation across ecological and geographic space, perhaps reflecting evolutionary plasticity and adaptability. Based on this concept, species with greater intraspecific variation in morphological traits may be expected to occupy broader ecological niches and larger geographic ranges. However, even in the age of global trait datasets, intraspecific morphological variation remains poorly quantified at broad taxonomic and geographic scales, limiting our understanding of how trait flexibility shapes ecological and biogeographic patterns. Focusing on 161 species of bulbuls, a widespread avian family containing some of the most abundant bird species in the world, along with some of the rarest and most restricted in range, we conducted global-scale sampling of morphological traits. These included beak shape, tarsus length and wing length, associated with dietary niche, foraging strategy and dispersal, respectively. Using phylogenetic models, we tested whether ecological niche breadth and geographical range size are predicted by intraspecific morphological variation quantified from 8,251 museum specimens and 5,627 live captures. Our results demonstrate that morphological trait variation predicts both ecological niche breadth and geographic range size. Furthermore, widespread species exhibit greater morphological variation than restricted-range species even when comparisons are constrained to equivalent geographic extents, consistent with the hypothesis that intraspecific trait variation facilitates range expansion rather than simply accumulating as a consequence of occupying a larger range. These results identify intraspecific morphological variation as a potentially important, yet largely overlooked, predictor of ecological traits and biogeographic distributions in birds.

ecology↗