The high burden of dengue and chikungunya in southern coastal Ecuador: Epidemiology, clinical presentation, and phylogenetics from a prospective study in Machala in 2014 and 2015

Stewart-Ibarra, A. M.; Kenneson, A.; King, C. A.; Abbott, M.; Barbachano-Guerrero, A.; Beltran-Ayala, E.; Borbor-Cordova, M. J.; Cardenas, W. B.; Cueva, C.; Finkelstein, J. L.; Lupone, C. D.; Jarman, R. G.; Maljkovic Berry, I.; Mehta, S.; Polhemus, M.; Silva, M.; Ryan, S. J.; Endy, T. P.

doi:10.1101/102004

bioRxiv · 10.1101/102004

The high burden of dengue and chikungunya in southern coastal Ecuador: Epidemiology, clinical presentation, and phylogenetics from a prospective study in Machala in 2014 and 2015

Stewart-Ibarra, A. M.·Kenneson, A.·King, C. A.·Abbott, M.·Barbachano-Guerrero, A.·Beltran-Ayala, E.·Borbor-Cordova, M. J.·Cardenas, W. B.·Cueva, C.·Finkelstein, J. L.·Lupone, C. D.·Jarman, R. G.·Maljkovic Berry, I.·Mehta, S.·Polhemus, M.·Silva, M.·Ryan, S. J.·Endy, T. P.

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Abstract

Here we report the findings from the first two years of an arbovirus surveillance study conducted in Machala, Ecuador, a dengue endemic region (2014-2015). Patients with suspected dengue virus (DENV) infections (index cases, n=324) were referred from five Ministry of Health clinical sites. A subset of DENV positive index cases (n = 44) were selected, and individuals from the index household and four neighboring homes within 200-meters were recruited (n = 400). Individuals who entered the study, other than index cases, are referred to as associates. In 2014, 70.9% of index cases and 35.6% of associates had acute or recent DENV infections. In 2015, 28.3% of index cases and 12.8% of associates had acute or recent DENV infections. For every DENV infection captured by passive surveillance, we detected an additional three acute or recent DENV infections in associates. Of associates with acute DENV infections, 68% reported dengue-like symptoms, with the highest prevalence of symptomatic acute infections in children under 10 years of age. The first chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infections were detected on epidemiological week 12 in 2015. 43.1% of index cases and 3.5% of associates had acute CHIKV infections. No Zika virus infections were detected. Phylogenetic analyses of isolates of DENV from 2014 revealed genetic relatedness and shared ancestry of DENV1, DENV2 and DENV4 genomes from Ecuador with those from Venezuela and Colombia, indicating presence of viral flow between Ecuador and surrounding countries. Enhanced surveillance studies, such as this, provide high-resolution data on symptomatic and inapparent infections across the population.

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Stewart-Ibarra, A. M., Kenneson, A., King, C. A., Abbott, M., Barbachano-Guerrero, A., Beltran-Ayala, E., Borbor-Cordova, M. J., Cardenas, W. B., Cueva, C., Finkelstein, J. L., Lupone, C. D., Jarman, R. G., Maljkovic Berry, I., Mehta, S., Polhemus, M., Silva, M., Ryan, S. J., Endy, T. P.. 2017-01-20. The high burden of dengue and chikungunya in southern coastal Ecuador: Epidemiology, clinical presentation, and phylogenetics from a prospective study in Machala in 2014 and 2015. https://doi.org/10.1101/102004

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