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bioRxiv · 10.1101/061382

Defining the risk of Zika and chikungunya virus transmission in human population centers of the eastern United States

Carrie Manore·Richard Ostfeld·Folashade Agusto·Holly Gaff·Shannon LaDeau
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Abstract

The recent spread of mosquito-transmitted viruses and associated disease to the Americas motivates a new, data-driven evaluation of risk in temperate population centers. Temperate regions are generally expected to pose low risk for significant mosquito-borne disease, however, the spread of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) across densely populated urban areas has established a new landscape of risk. We use a model informed by field data to assess the conditions likely to facilitate local transmission of chikungunya and Zika viruses from an infected traveler to Ae. albopictus and then to other humans in USA cities with variable human densities and seasonality.\n\nMosquito-borne disease occurs when specific combinations of conditions maximize virus-to-mosquito and mosquito-to-human contact rates. We develop a mathematical model that captures the epidemiology and is informed by current data on vector ecology from urban sites. The model predicts that one of every two infectious travelers arriving at peak mosquito season could initiate local transmission and > 10% of the introductions could generate a disease outbreak of at least 100 people. Despite Ae. albopictus propensity for biting non-human vertebrates, we also demonstrate that local virus transmission and human outbreaks may occur when vectors feed from humans even just 40% of the time. This work demonstrates how a conditional series of non-average events can result in local arbovirus transmission and outbreaks of disease in humans, even in temperate cities.\n\nAuthor SummaryZika and chikungunya viruses are transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, including Ae. albopictus, which is abundant in many temperate cities. While disease risk is lower in temperate regions where viral amplification cannot build across years, there is significant potential for localized disease outbreaks in urban populations. We use a model informed by field data to assess the conditions likely to facilitate local transmission of virus from an infected traveler to Ae. albopictus and then to other humans in USA cities with variable human densities and seasonality. The model predicts that one of every two infectious travelers arriving at peak mosquito season could initiate local transmission and > 10% of the introductions could generate a disease outbreak of >100 people.\n\nClassification: Ecology

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Carrie Manore, Richard Ostfeld, Folashade Agusto, Holly Gaff, Shannon LaDeau. 2016-07-24. Defining the risk of Zika and chikungunya virus transmission in human population centers of the eastern United States. https://doi.org/10.1101/061382

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