Long-term, multi-event surprise enhances autobiographical memory
Neurobiological and psychological models of learning emphasize the importance of prediction errors (surprises) for memory formation. These effects have focused on memory for information surrounding a momentary surprising event; however, it is less clear whether surprise that unfolds across multiple events and timescales impacts memory. We asked basketball fans about their most positive and negative autobiographical memories of individual plays, games, and seasons, allowing surprise measurements spanning seconds, hours, and months. We used advanced analytics on National Basketball Association play-by-play data and betting odds spanning 17 seasons, >22K games, >5.6M plays to compute and align the estimated surprise values of each memory. We found that surprising events biased positive memories on the scale of seconds and months and negative memories across all three timescales. Critically, game and season memories could not be explained by surprise at shorter timescales, suggesting that long-term, multi-event surprise influences memory. These results expand the role of surprise in models of learning and reinforce its relevance in real-world domains.