de Vos, C. J. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2023

Comparing the transmission of carbapenemase-producing and extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli between broiler chickens.

The emergence of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) is a threat to public health, because of their resistance to clinically important carbapenem antibiotics. The emergence of CPE in meat-producing animals is particularly worrying because consumption of meat contaminated with resistant bacteria similar to CPE, such as extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Enterobacteriaceae, contributed to colonization in humans worldwide. Currently, no data on the transmission of CPE in livestock is available. We performed a transmission experiment to quantify the transmission of CPE between broilers to fill this knowledge gap and to compare the transmission rates of CPE and other antibiotic-resistant E. coli. A total of 180 Ross 308 broiler chickens were distributed on the day of hatch (day 0) over 12 pens. On day 5, half of the chickens in each pen were orally inoculated with 5{middle dot}102 colony-forming units of CPE, ESBL, or chloramphenicol-resistant E. coli (catA1). Amoxicillin drinking water treatment was given twice daily in 6 of the 12 pens from days 2 to 6 to evaluate the effect of antibiotic treatment on the transmission rates. Cloacal swabs of all animals were taken to determine the number of infectious broilers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify the transmission of the E. coli strains. E. coli can survive in the environment and serve as a reservoir. Therefore, the susceptible-infectious transmission model was adapted to account for the transmission of resistant bacteria from the environment. In addition, the caecal microbiome was analyzed on day 5 and at the end of the experiment on day 14 to assess the relationship between the caecal microbiome and the transmission rates. The transmission rates of CPE were 52 - 68 per cent lower compared to ESBL and catA1, but it is not clear if these differences were caused by differences between the resistance genes or between the E. coli strains. Differences between the groups in transmission rates and microbiome diversity did not correspond to each other, indicating that differences in transmission rates were probably not caused by major differences in the community structure in the caecal microbiome. Amoxicillin treatment from day 2 to 6 increased the transmission rate more than three-fold in all inoculums. It also increased alpha-diversity compared to untreated animals on day 5, but not on day 14, suggesting only a temporary effect. Future research could incorporate more complex transmission models with different species of resistant bacteria into the Bayesian hierarchical model.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2022

A generic risk assessment model for animal disease incursion through wildlife

Animal diseases can enter countries or regions through movements of infected wildlife. A generic risk model would allow to quantify the risk of entry via this introduction route for different diseases and wildlife species, despite the vast variety in both, and help policy-makers to make informed decisions. Here, we propose such a generic risk assessment model and illustrate its application by assessing the risk of entry of African swine fever (ASF) through wild boar and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) through wild birds for the Netherlands between 2014-2021. We used disease outbreak data and abstracted movement patterns to populate a stochastic risk model. We found that the entry risk of HPAI fluctuated between the years with a peak in 2021. In that year, we estimated the number of infected birds to reach the Dutch border by wild bird migration at 273 (95% uncertainty interval: 254-290). The probability that ASF outbreaks that occurred between 2014 and 2021, reached the Dutch border through wild boar movement was very low throughout the whole period; only the upper confidence bound indicated a small entry risk. On a yearly scale, the predicted entry risk for HPAI correlated well with the number of observed outbreaks. In conclusion, we present a generic and flexible framework to assess the entry risk of disease through wildlife. The model allows rapid and transparent estimation of the entry risk for diverse diseases and wildlife species. The modular structure of the model allows to add nuance and complexity, when required or when more data becomes available.

ecology↗