de Oliveira, S. H. P. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2019

The evolution of contact prediction: Evidence that contact selection in statistical contact prediction is changing

Over the last few years, the field of protein structure prediction has been transformed by increasingly-accurate contact prediction software. These methods are based on the detection of coevolutionary relationships between residues from multiple sequence alignments. However, despite speculation, there is little evidence of a link between contact prediction and the physico-chemical interactions which drive amino-acid coevolution. Furthermore, existing protocols predict only a fraction of all protein contacts and it is not clear why some contacts are favoured over others.\n\nUsing a dataset of 863 protein domains, we assessed the physico-chemical interactions of contacts predicted by CCMpred, MetaPSICOV, and DNCON2, as examples of direct coupling analysis, meta-prediction, and deep learning, respectively. To further investigate what sets these predicted contacts apart, we considered correctly-predicted contacts and compared their properties against the protein contacts that were not predicted.\n\nWe found that predicted contacts tend to form more bonds than non-predicted contacts, which suggests these contacts may be more important. Comparing the contacts predicted by each method, we found that metaPSICOV and DNCON2 favour accuracy whereas CCMPred detects contacts with more bonds. This suggests that the push for higher accuracy may lead to a loss of physico-chemically important contacts.\n\nThese results underscore the connection between protein physico-chemistry and the coevolutionary couplings that can be derived from multiple sequence alignments. This relationship is likely to be relevant to protein structure prediction and functional analysis of protein structure and may be key to understanding their utility for different problems in structural biology.\n\nAuthor summaryAccurate contact prediction has allowed scientists to predict protein structures with unprecedented levels of accuracy. The success of contact prediction methods, which are based on inferring correlations between amino acids in protein multiple sequence alignments, has prompted a great deal of work to improve the quality of contact prediction, leading to the development of several different methods for detecting amino acids in proximity.\n\nIn this paper, we investigate the properties of these contact prediction methods. We find that contacts which are predicted differ from the other contacts in the protein, in particular they have more physico-chemical bonds, and the predicted contacts are more strongly conserved than other contacts across protein families. We also compared the properties of different contact prediction methods and found that the characteristics of the predicted sets depend on the prediction method used.\n\nOur results point to a link between physico-chemical bonding interactions and the evolutionary history of proteins, a connection which is reflected in their amino acid sequences.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2019

RFQAmodel: Random Forest Quality Assessment to identify a predicted protein structure in the correct fold

While template-free protein structure prediction protocols now produce good quality models for many targets, modelling failure remains common. For these methods to be useful it is important that users can both choose the best model from the hundreds to thousands of models that are commonly generated for a target, and determine whether this model is likely to be correct. We have developed Random Forest Quality Assessment (RFQAmodel), which assesses whether models produced by a protein structure prediction pipeline have the correct fold. RFQAmodel uses a combination of existing quality assessment scores with two predicted contact map alignment scores. These alignment scores are able to identify correct models for targets that are not otherwise captured. Our classifier was trained on a large set of protein domains that are structurally diverse and evenly balanced in terms of protein features known to have an effect on modelling success, and then tested on a second set of 244 protein domains with a similar spread of properties. When models for each target in this second set were ranked according to the RFQAmodel score, the highest-ranking model had a high-confidence RFQAmodel score for 67 modelling targets, of which 52 had the correct fold. At the other end of the scale RFQAmodel correctly predicted that for 59 targets the highest-ranked model was incorrect. In comparisons to other methods we found that RFQAmodel is better able to identify correct models for targets where only a few of the models are correct. We found that RFQAmodel achieved a similar performance on the model sets for CASP12 and CASP13 free-modelling targets. Finally, by iteratively generating models and running RFQAmodel until a model is produced that is predicted to be correct with high confidence, we demonstrate how such a protocol can be used to focus computational efforts on difficult modelling targets.

bioinformatics↗