Biology subjects

Zhai, B.-P.

Publications and source records attributed to Zhai, B.-P..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2020

Plagues of Desert Locust: No invasion risk to China

Recently, the most serious upsurge of desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) in the last 25 years is spreading across eastern Africa and southwestern Asia. Parts of the desert locust invasion area, namely the northern border areas of Pakistan and India are very close to China, and whether locust swarms will invade China is of wide concern. To answer this question, we identified areas of potentially suitable habitat for the desert locust within China based on historical precipitation and temperature data, and found that parts of Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia provinces could provide ephemeral habitat in summer, but these places are remote from any other desert locust breeding area. Presently, the desert locust populations in Pakistan and India are mature and have laid eggs, and are less likely to spread long distances. The next generation of adults will appear in April and May, and so we examined twenty years historical wind data (2000-2019) for this period. Our results showed that winds at the height of locust swarm flight blew eastward during April and May, but the wind speeds were quite slow and would not facilitate desert locust eastward migration over large distances. Furthermore, simulated trajectories of desert locust swarms with 10 days migration mostly ended within India. The most easterly point of these trajectories just reached eastern India, close to the border between India and Myanmar, and this is very close to the eastern border of the invasion area of desert locust described in previous studies. In conclusion, the risk that the desert locust will invade China is very low.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Prediction of migratory routes of the invasive fall armyworm in eastern China using a trajectory analytical approach

BACKGROUNDThe fall armyworm (FAW), an invasive pest from the Americas, is rapidly spreading through the Old World, and has recently invaded the Indochinese Peninsula and southern China. In the Americas, FAW migrates from winter-breeding areas in the south into summer-breeding areas throughout North America where it is a major pest of corn. Asian populations are also likely to evolve migrations into the corn-producing regions of eastern China, where they will pose a serious threat to food security.\n\nRESULTSTo evaluate the invasion risk in eastern China, the rate of expansion and future migratory range was modelled by a trajectory simulation approach, combined with flight behaviour and meteorological data. Our results predict that FAW will migrate from its new year-round breeding regions into the two main corn-producing regions of eastern China (the North China and Northeast China Plains), via two pathways. The western pathway originates in Myanmar and Yunnan, and FAW will take four migration steps to reach the North China Plain by July. Migration along the eastern pathway from Indochina and southern China progresses faster, with FAW reaching the North China Plain in three steps by June and reaching the Northeast China Plain in July.\n\nCONCLUSIONOur results indicate that there is a high risk that FAW will invade the major corn-producing areas of eastern China via two migration pathways, and cause significant impacts to agricultural productivity. Information on migration pathways and timings can be used to inform integrated pest management strategies for this emerging pest.

animal behavior and cognition↗