Mapping the habitat suitability of Culex pipiens in Europe using ensemble bioclimatic modelling
Anthropogenic pressure on natural ecosystems has profoundly influenced the dynamics of disease vectors, altering their distribution and phenology, and increased the risk of vector-borne diseases. Culex pipiens is a widespread mosquito species and an important vector of zoonotic pathogens in Europe, including West Nile virus. Understanding Cx. pipiens distribution is essential to orient monitoring and mitigation strategies for vector-borne disease risk. Here, we employed an ensemble modelling framework to investigate the climatic and environmental determinants of Cx. pipiens distribution in continental Europe. We integrated high-resolution occurrence data from entomological surveillance with bioclimatic, topographic, and anthropogenic variables. Our findings identified imperviousness as the most influential predictor of Cx. pipiens distribution, with a strong association with human-modified low-elevation areas that reflects its adaptability to anthropogenic environments. The ensemble prediction approach we employed demonstrated higher predictive accuracy and transferability compared to individual models during independent block validation. These results emphasize the need to incorporate anthropogenic factors into disease vector distribution models to support evidence-based surveillance and control strategies, while also offering updated, robust, and spatially explicit predictions of the habitat suitability for Cx. pipiens in Europe. Overall, this study highlights the role of human modification of the natural environment in shaping Cx. pipiens distribution, extending previous knowledge on the role of urban areas.