bioRxiv Science⌕ Search

Biology subjects

Vrancken, B.

Publications and source records attributed to Vrancken, B..

11 recordsLinked to original sources
bioRxiv2026

Reconciling fast Hepatitis B evolutionary rates with ancient co-divergence

Estimating evolutionary rates and divergence times for hepatitis B virus (HBV) has long been complicated by conflicting calibration approaches and extensive rate variation. To unlock the full potential of ancient and modern HBV genomic data, we develop a Bayesian mixed-effects molecular clock model that accounts for various sources of rate variation including time-dependent rate decay. Our analyses reveal a pronounced decline in evolutionary rates over time, reconciling HBV divergence estimates with human migration events across both deep and more recent timescales. We show that HBV spread into Europe through both Neolithic farming expansions and later steppe migrations, paralleling patterns proposed for Indo-European language origins. Phylogeographic reconstructions suggest that the Neolithic-associated lineage dispersed at approximately 1 km/year, consistent with archaeological estimates, while genotype D expanded during the Bronze Age at an almost threefold higher rate, plausibly driven by technological innovations underlying steppe expansions. Historical overlap between these lineages facilitated recombination, giving rise to genotype E, which has become a dominant HBV genotype in Africa. These findings demonstrate that ancient viral genomes, when analyzed with models capturing complex rate dynamics, provide a powerful lens on human prehistory and the processes shaping pathogen diversity.

evolutionary biology↗
bioRxiv2026

Breeding pig transport drives the dispersal of swine influenza A virus across Europe

Pigs serve as reservoirs of former human influenza A virus (IAV) H1N1 and H3N2 lineages and act as mixing vessels for diverse strains, facilitating the emergence of novel IAVs. Understanding the spread and evolution of swine IAVs (swIAVs) is therefore crucial to assess the risk of strains with zoonotic potential emerging. This study uses a phylogeographic framework to investigate the predictors of swIAV dispersal across Europe. All publicly available swIAV genomic sequences were retrieved and subsampled for the ten largest European pig-producing countries. Discrete phylogeographic reconstructions were conducted for H1, H3, N1, N2 encoding genes and all internal gene segments. Our analyses indicate that viral dispersal predominantly occurred from north-western to southern and eastern Europe, with frequent long-distance transitions between non-adjacent countries. We also extended the discrete phylogeographical analyses with generalized linear models to test the association between viral movement and potential predictors, such as live pig trade, pork trade, pig densities, farm sizes, or the geographic distance between key pig production zones. We find that breeding pig trade is the only consistently well-supported predictor of between-country transition events, whereas pork trade and geographic distance were not supported. This highlights that farms importing breeding pigs from multiple countries could act as hotspots for reassortment of diverse swIAV strains. Strengthening external biosecurity on farms with emphasis on quarantining breeding pigs, limiting long-distance transport, and implementing a One Health surveillance system for earlier detection of emerging strains, could help curb the rapid spread and evolution of swIAV in Europe. Author summaryInfluenza A viruses that originally came from humans are now circulating in pigs. This is a public health concern because these viruses continue to evolve in pigs and may eventually return to humans in new forms that could cause more severe disease. To better prevent this risk, we need to understand the dispersal dynamics of influenza viruses infecting pigs. For this purpose, we retrieved all publicly available European swine influenza A virus genomic sequences. Using this genomic dataset, we reconstructed how the virus has spread across Europe and investigated the external factors that may have driven the spread. Our results indicate that swine influenza A viruses frequently spread between European countries, in particular from north-western to southern and eastern Europe, and that the trade of pigs intended for breeding is strongly associated with these patterns of spread. Consequently, measures such as quarantining of breeding pigs, could help preventing swine influenza variants from spreading between and becoming established in new regions. We also find major gaps in available genomic data from several European countries. We therefore recommend stronger European surveillance programs that include monitoring influenza viruses in both animals and humans to improve early detection of new emerging viral variants.

genomics↗
bioRxiv2025

Navigating sampling bias in discrete phylogeographic analysis: assessing the performance of an adjusted Bayes factor

Bayesian phylogeographic inference is widely used in molecular epidemiological studies to reconstruct the dispersal history of pathogens. Discrete phylogeographic analysis treats geographic locations as discrete traits and infers lineage transition events among them, and is typically followed by a Bayes factor (BF) test to assess the statistical support. In the standard BF (BFstd) test, the relative abundance of the involved trait states is not considered, which can be problematic in the case of unbalanced sampling. Existing methods to correct sampling bias in discrete phylogeographic analyses using continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model, often require additional epidemiological information to balance the sampling effort among locations. As such data is not necessarily available, alternative approaches that rely solely on available genomic data are needed. In this perspective, we assess the performance of a modification of the BFstd, the adjusted Bayes factor (BFadj), which incorporates information on the relative abundance of samples by location when inferring support for transition events and root location inference without requiring additional data. Using a simulation framework, we assess the statistical performance of BFstd and BFadj under varying levels of sampling bias, estimating their type I and type II error rates. Our results show that BFadj complements the BFstd by reducing type I errors at the cost increasing type II errors for inferred transition events, while improving type I and type II errors in root location inference. Our findings provide guidelines for implementing the complementary BFadj to detect and mitigate sampling bias in discrete phylogeographic inference using CTMC modelling.

evolutionary biology↗
bioRxiv2021

Predicting the evolution of Lassa Virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades

Lassa fever is listed among the diseases that pose the greatest risks to public health by the World Health Organization. This severe viral hemorrhagic fever is caused by Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen that repeatedly spills over to humans from its rodent reservoirs. It is currently not known how climate change, transformations in land use, and human population growth could affect the endemic area of this virus, currently limited to parts of West Africa. By exploring the environmental data associated with virus occurrence, we show how temperature, precipitation and the presence of pastures determine ecological suitability for virus circulation. We project that regions in Central and East Africa will likely become suitable for Lassa virus over the next decades and estimate that the total population living in areas suitable for Lassa virus may grow from about 100 million to 700 million by 2070. By analysing geotagged viral genomes, we find that in the event of Lassa virus being introduced into a new suitable region, its spread might remain spatially limited over the first decades. Our results highlight how the endemic area of Lassa virus may expand well beyond West Africa in the next decades due to human impact on the environment, putting hundreds of million more people at risk of infection.

microbiology↗
bioRxiv2021

Archival influenza virus genomes from Europe reveal genomic and phenotypic variability during the 1918 pandemic

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the deadliest respiratory pandemic of the 20th century and determined the genomic make-up of subsequent human influenza A viruses (IAV). Here, we analyze the first 1918 IAV genomes from Europe and from the first, milder wave of the pandemic. 1918 IAV genomic diversity is consistent with local transmission and frequent long-distance dispersal events and in vitro polymerase characterization suggests potential phenotypic variability. Comparison of first and second wave genomes shows variation at two sites in the nucleoprotein gene associated with resistance to host antiviral response, pointing at a possible adaptation of 1918 IAV to humans. Finally, phylogenetic estimates based on extended molecular clock modelling suggests a pure pandemic descent of seasonal H1N1 IAV as an alternative to the hypothesis of an intrasubtype reassortment origin. One Sentence SummaryMuch can be learned about past pandemics by uncovering their footprints in medical archives, which we here demonstrate for the 1918 flu pandemic.

microbiology↗
bioRxiv2021

In-depth characterization of HIV-1 reservoirs reveals links to viral rebound during treatment interruption

The HIV-1 reservoir is composed of cells harboring latent proviruses that are capable of contributing to viremia upon antiretroviral treatment (ART) interruption. Although this reservoir is known to be maintained by clonal expansion, the contribution of large, infected cell clones to residual viremia and viral rebound remains underexplored. Here, we conducted an extensive analysis on four ART-treated individuals who underwent an analytical treatment interruption (ATI). We performed subgenomic (V1-V3 env), near full-length proviral and integration site sequencing, and used multiple displacement amplification to sequence both the integration site and provirus from single HIV-infected cells. We found eight proviruses that could phylogenetically be linked to plasma virus obtained before or during the ATI. This study highlights a role for HIV-infected cell clones in the maintenance of the replication-competent reservoir and suggests that infected cell clones can directly contribute to rebound viremia upon ATI.

microbiology↗
bioRxiv2020

Unravelling the evolutionary relationships of hepaciviruses within and across rodent hosts

Hepatitis C virus (HCV; genus Hepacivirus) represents a major public health problem, infecting about 3 % of the human population ({+/-} 185,000,000 people). Because no plausible animal reservoir carrying closely related hepaciviruses has been identified, the zoonotic origins of HCV still remain elusive. Motivated by recent findings of divergent hepaciviruses in rodents and a plausible African origin of HCV genotypes, we have screened a comprehensive collection of small mammals samples from seven sub-Saharan African countries. Out of 4,303 samples screened, 80 were found positive for the presence of hepaciviruses in 29 different host species. We here report 56 novel genomes that considerably increase the diversity of three divergent rodent hepacivirus lineages, which previously were almost exclusively represented by New World and European hepaciviruses. Further-more, we provide undisputable evidence for hepacivirus co-infections in rodents, which remarkably, we exclusively but repeatedly found in four sampled species of brush-furred mice. We also point at hepacivirus co-infections indirectly in different animal hosts by demonstrating evidence for recombination within specific host lineages. Our study considerably expands the available hepacivirus genomic data and elucidates the relatively deep evolutionary history that these pathogens have in rodents compared to other mammalian hosts. Overall, our results emphasize the importance of rodents as a potential hepacivirus reservoir and as models for investigating HCV infection dynamics.

evolutionary biology↗
bioRxiv2019

The history of measles: from a 1912 genome to an antique origin

Many infectious diseases are thought to have emerged in humans after the Neolithic revolution. While it is broadly accepted that this also applies to measles, the exact date of emergence for this disease is controversial. Here, we sequenced the genome of a 1912 measles virus and used selection-aware molecular clock modeling to determine the divergence date of measles virus and rinderpest virus. This divergence date represents the earliest possible date for the establishment of measles in human populations. Our analyses show that the measles virus potentially arose as early as the 4th century BCE, rekindling the recently challenged hypothesis of an antique origin of this disease. One Sentence SummaryMeasles virus diverged from rinderpest virus in the 4th century BCE, which is compatible with an emergence of measles during Antiquity.

evolutionary biology↗
bioRxiv2019

Phylogeographic and phylodynamic approaches to epidemiological hypothesis testing

Computational analyses of pathogen genomes are increasingly used to unravel the dispersal history and transmission dynamics of epidemics. Here, we show how to go beyond historical reconstructions and use spatially-explicit phylogeographic and phylodynamic approaches to formally test epidemiological hypotheses. We illustrate our approach by focusing on the West Nile virus (WNV) spread in North America that has been responsible for substantial impacts on public, veterinary, and wildlife health. WNV isolates have been sampled at various times and locations across North America since its introduction to New York twenty years ago. We exploit this genetic data repository to demonstrate that factors hypothesised to affect viral dispersal and demography can be formally tested. Specifically, we detail and apply an analytical workflow consisting of state-of-the art methods that we further improve to test the impact of environmental factors on the dispersal locations, velocity, and frequency of viral lineages, as well as on the genetic diversity of the viral population through time. We find that WNV lineages tend to disperse faster in areas with higher temperatures and we identify temporal variation in temperature as a main predictor of viral genetic diversity through time. Using a simulation procedure, we find no evidence that viral lineages preferentially circulate within the same migratory bird flyway, suggesting a substantial role for non-migratory birds or mosquito dispersal along the longitudinal gradient. Finally, we also separately apply our testing approaches on the three WNV genotypes that circulated in North America in order to understand and compare their dispersal ability. Our study demonstrates that the development and application of statistical approaches, coupled with comprehensive pathogen genomic data, can address epidemiological questions that might otherwise be difficult or impractically expensive to answer.

evolutionary biology↗
bioRxiv2019

Drivers of HIV-1 transmission: the Portuguese case

BackgroundPortugal has one of the most severe HIV-1 epidemic in Western Europe. Two subtypes circulate in parallel since the beginning of the epidemic. Comparing their transmission patterns and its association with transmitted drug resistance (TDR) is important to pinpoint transmission hotspots and to develop evidence-based treatment guidelines.\n\nMethods3599 HIV-1 naive patients collected between 2001 and 2014 were included in the study. Sequences obtained from drug resistance testing were used for subtyping, TDR determination and transmission clusters (TC) analyses.\n\nResultsSubtype B transmission was significantly associated with young males, while subtype G was associated with older heterosexuals. Young males infected with subtype B were more likely to be included in TC. Consistently, a decreasing trend of prevalence and transmission of subtype G in Portuguese originated people was observed. Active TCs were associated with subtype B-infected males residing in Lisbon. TDR was significantly different when comparing subtypes B (10.8% [9.5-12.2]) and G (7.6% [6.4-9.0]) (p=0.001).\n\nDiscussionTC analyses shows that the subtype B epidemic is active and fueled by young male patients residing in Lisbon and that transmission of subtype G in Portugal is decreasing. Despite similar treatment rates for both subtypes in Portugal, TDR is different between subtypes.

molecular biology↗