Biology subjects

Voskamp, A.

Publications and source records attributed to Voskamp, A..

6 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2024

Future climate and land use change will equally impact global terrestrial vertebrate diversity

Aim: Terrestrial biodiversity is impacted by both climate and land use change. Yet, future biodiversity projections have rarely considered these two drivers in combination. In this study, we aim to assess the individual and combined impact of future climate and land use change on global terrestrial vertebrate diversity under a "sustainability" (SSP1-RCP2.6) and an "inequality" (SSP4-RCP6.0) scenario. Location: Global land, excluding Antarctica. Time period: 1995, 2080 Major taxa studied: Amphibians, birds, and mammals. Methods: We combined global climate-driven species distribution model (SDM) projections of 13903 vertebrates (amphibians, birds, and mammals) with future and present land use projections from the Land Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project. We refined the SDM outputs by the habitat requirements of each species using a land use filtering approach. We then analyzed future species richness changes globally, per region, and per land use category, and looked at taxon-specific effects. Results: Under both scenarios, decreases in future species richness dominate at low and mid-latitudes, with climate and land use change playing an equally important role. Land use change can be either an alleviating (SSP1-RCP2.6) or an exacerbating (SSP4-RCP6.0) factor of climate-induced biodiversity loss. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to become a high-risk area for future land use-driven biodiversity loss under the SSP4-RCP6.0. Under SSP1-RCP2.6, forested and non-forested land areas increase, while SSP4-RCP6.0 leads to higher rates of deforestation and pasture expansion. Mammals experience the largest climate-driven losses, affecting 56.4% of land area under SSP4-RCP6.0, while amphibians are particularly vulnerable to land use-driven losses, especially under SSP4-RCP6.0. Main conclusions: Our results suggest that both climate and land use pressures on biodiversity will be highest in lower latitudes, which harbor the highest levels of biodiversity.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Potential future climate change effects on global reptile distribution and diversity

AimUntil recently, complete information on global reptile distributions has not been widely available. Here, we provide the first comprehensive climate impact assessment for reptiles on a global scale. LocationGlobal, excluding Antarctica Time period1995, 2050, 2080 Major taxa studiedReptiles MethodsWe modelled the distribution of 6,296 reptile species and assessed potential global as well as realm-specific changes in species richness, the change in global species richness across climate space, and species-specific changes in range extent, overlap and position under future climate change. To assess the future climatic impact on 3,768 range-restricted species, which could not be modelled, we compared the future change in climatic conditions between both modelled and non-modelled species. ResultsReptile richness was projected to decline significantly over time, globally but also for most zoogeographic realms, with the greatest decrease in Brazil, Australia and South Africa. Species richness was highest in warm and moist regions, with these regions being projected to shift further towards climate extremes in the future. Range extents were projected to decline considerably in the future, with a low overlap between current and future ranges. Shifts in range centroids differed among realms and taxa, with a dominating global poleward shift. Non-modelled species were significantly stronger affected by projected climatic changes than modelled species. Main conclusionsWith ongoing future climate change, reptile richness is likely to decrease significantly across most parts of the world. This effect as well as considerable impacts on species range extent, overlap, and position were visible across lizards, snakes and turtles alike. Together with other anthropogenic impacts, such as habitat loss and harvesting of species, this is a cause for concern. Given the historical lack of global reptile distributions, this calls for a reassessment of global reptile conservation efforts, with a specific focus on anticipated future climate change.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

How to resolve conflicting conservation objectives: A decision support tool for the global selection of multi-purpose protected areas

The establishment and maintenance of protected areas (PAs) is viewed as a key action in delivering post-2020 biodiversity targets. PAs often need to meet multiple objectives, ranging from biodiversity protection to ecosystem service provision and climate change mitigation, but available land and conservation funding is limited. Therefore, optimizing resources by selecting the most beneficial PAs is vital. Here, we advocate for a flexible and transparent approach to selecting protected areas based on multiple objectives, and illustrate this with a decision support tool on a global scale. The tool allows weighting and prioritization of different conservation objectives according to user-specified preferences, as well as real-time comparison of the selected areas that result from such different priorities. We apply the tool across 1347 terrestrial PAs and highlight frequent trade-offs among different objectives, e.g., between species protection and ecosystem integrity. Outputs indicate that decision makers frequently face trade-offs among conflicting objectives. Nevertheless, we show that transparent decision-support tools can reveal synergies and trade-offs associated with PA selection, thereby helping to illuminate and resolve land-use conflicts embedded in divergent societal and political demands and values.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Climate change impacts on the phylogenetic diversity of the world's terrestrial birds: more than species numbers

Ongoing climate change is a major threat to biodiversity and impacts on species distributions and abundances are already evident. Heterogenous responses of species due to varying abiotic tolerances and dispersal abilities have the potential to further amplify or ameliorate these impacts through changes in species assemblages. Here we investigate the impacts of climate change on terrestrial bird distributions and, subsequently, on species richness as well as on different aspects of phylogenetic diversity of species assemblages across the globe. We go beyond previous work by disentangling the potential impacts on assemblage phylogenetic diversity of species gains vs. losses under climate change and compare the projected impacts to randomized assemblage changes. We show that climate change might not only affect species numbers and composition of global species assemblages but could also have profound impacts on assemblage phylogenetic diversity, which, across extensive areas, differ significantly from random changes. Both the projected impacts on phylogenetic diversity and on phylogenetic structure vary greatly across the globe. Projected increases in the evolutionary history contained within species assemblages, associated with either increasing phylogenetic diversification or clustering, are most frequent at high northern latitudes. By contrast, projected declines in evolutionary history, associated with increasing phylogenetic over-dispersion or homogenisation, are projected across all continents. The projected widespread changes in the phylogenetic structure of species assemblages show that changes in species richness do not fully reflect the potential threat from climate change to ecosystems. Our results indicate that the most severe changes to the phylogenetic diversity and structure of species assemblages are likely to be caused by species range shifts rather than range reductions and extinctions. Our findings highlight the importance of considering diverse measures in climate impact assessments and the value of integrating species-specific responses into assessments of entire community changes.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Global impacts of climate change on avian functional diversity

Climate change is predicted to drive geographical range shifts in many taxa, leading to the formation of novel species assemblages and fluctuations in species richness worldwide. However, the effect of these changes on functional diversity is not yet fully understood, in part because comprehensive species-level trait data are generally lacking at global scales. Here we use morphometric and ecological trait data for 8269 terrestrial bird species to compare functional diversity (FD) of current and future bird assemblages under a medium emissions scenario. We show that future assemblages are likely to undergo substantial shifts in trait structure, with the direction and magnitude of these shifts varying with geographical location and trophic guild. Specifically, invertivore FD is projected to increase at higher latitudes with concurrent losses at mid-latitudes, reflecting poleward shifts in range, whereas frugivore FD is projected to fluctuate in many tropical regions with major declines in much of South America and New Guinea. We show that these projected changes in FD are generally greater than expected from changing species richness alone, indicating that projected FD changes are primarily driven by the loss or gain of functionally distinct species. Our findings suggest that climate change will drive continental-scale shifts in avian functional diversity, with potentially far-reaching implications for ecosystem functions and resilience.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Defining mucosal immunity using mass cytometry following experimental human pneumococcal challenge

Streptococcus pneumoniae (Spn) is a common cause of respiratory infection, but also frequently colonises the nasopharynx in the absence of disease. We used mass cytometry to study immune cells from nasal biopsy samples, collected following experimental human pneumococcal challenge, in order to identify immunological changes that follow and control spn colonisation. Using 37 markers, we characterized 293 nasal immune cell clusters, of which 7 were associated with Spn colonisation. B cell and CD8+CD161+ T cell clusters were significantly higher in non-colonised than in colonised subjects. Spn colonization led to recirculation of not only Spn-specific but also aspecific nasal B cells. This associated with increased numbers of circulating plasmablasts and increased antibody levels against the unrelated bacterium Haemophilus influenzae. In addition, we demonstrated that baseline functionality of blood mucosal associated invariant T (MAIT) cells associated with protection against Spn. These results identify new host-pathogen interactions at the mucosa upon Spn colonisation.

immunology↗