Virah-Sawmy, M. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2025

Baobab isotope records and rainfall forcing in southwest Madagascar over the last 700 years.

Highly resolved climate records for Madagascar are scarce but are essential for understanding of rainfall drivers over time and assessing the risks and likely trajectories of future climate change. We measured variation in the carbon isotopes of baobabs (Adansonia spp.) which reflect rainfall in southwest Madagascar. The record indicates a decreasing trend of rainfall over the last 700 years with high variability at a centennial-scale. The duration of wetter periods decreased over time with the wettest periods between 1350 - 1450 CE, after the onset of the Little Ice Age, while the driest period occurred between 1600 - 1750 CE, during the Maunder Minimum. The results suggest that decadal to centennial rainfall variability in southwest Madagascar is dominated by tropical forcing rather than subtropical forcing. Wetter periods are regulated by the movement and migration of easterly winds linked to the Intertropical Convergence Zone, while dry periods are influenced by the effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the sea surface temperature variation in the Southwestern Indian Ocean. The Southern Annular Mode is significantly correlated with the record, but its effect was only visible at the beginning of the record around 1300 CE. This evidence provides a new understanding of rainfall across southern Africa and the interaction of global forcing with regional factors. Further investigation is required to improve tree chronology from Southern Hemisphere and understand the migration of the westerlies and its potential future effect on the rainfall in Madagascar. Understanding the interplay between tropical and other rainfall forcings will be essential in assessing likely scenarios of resilience, and adaptive capacity of social-ecological systems in Madagascar.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Putting species back on the map: devising a robust method for quantifying the biodiversity impacts of land conversion

AimQuantifying connections between the global drivers of habitat loss and biodiversity impact is vital for decision-makers promoting responsible land-use. To that end, biodiversity impact metrics should be able to report linked trends in specific anthropogenic activities and changes in biodiversity state. However, for biodiversity, it is challenging to deliver integrated information on its multiple dimensions (i.e. species richness, endemicity) and keep it practical. Here, we developed a biodiversity footprint indicator that can i) capture the status of different species groups, ii) link biodiversity impact to specific human activities, and iii) be adapted to the most applicable scale for the decision context.\n\nLocationCerrado Biome, Brazil\n\nMethodsWe illustrate this globally-applicable approach for the case of soybean expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado. Using species-specific habitat suitability models, we assessed the impact of soy expansion and other land uses over 2,000 species of amphibians, birds, mammals and plants for three time periods between 2000 and 2014.\n\nResultsOverall, plants suffered the greatest reduction of suitable habitat. However, among endemic and near-endemic species - which face greatest risk of global extinction from habitat conversion in the Cerrado - birds were the most affected group. While planted pastures and cropland expansion were together responsible for most of the absolute biodiversity footprint, soy expansion via direct conversion of natural vegetation had the greatest impact per unit area. The total biodiversity footprint over the period was concentrated in the southern states of Minas Gerais, Goias and Mato Grosso, but the soy footprint was proportionally higher in those northern states (such as Bahia and Piaui) which belong to the new agricultural frontier.\n\nMain conclusionsThe ability and flexibility of our approach to examine linkages between biodiversity loss and specific human activities has substantial potential to better characterise the pathways by which habitat loss drivers operate.

ecology↗