Biology subjects
Publications and source records attributed to Villabona-Arenas, C. J..
The authors have withdrawn this manuscript due to a duplicate posting of manuscript number 435621. Therefore, the author does not wish this work to be cited as reference for the project. Please cite and refer to the preprint 435621 (DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.16.435621). If you have any questions, please contact the corresponding authors.
Dengue continues to be the most important vector-borne viral disease globally and in Brazil, where more than 1.4 million cases and over 500 deaths were reported in 2016. Mosquito control programmes and other interventions have not stopped the alarming trend of increasingly large epidemics in the past few years.\n\nHere, we analyzed monthly dengue cases reported in Brazil between 2001 and 2016 to better characterize the key drivers of dengue epidemics. Spatio-temporal analysis revealed recurring travelling waves of disease occurrence. Using wavelet methods, we characterised the average seasonal pattern of dengue in Brazil, which starts in the western states of Acre and Rondonia, then travels eastward to the coast before reaching the northeast of the country. Only two states in the north of Brazil (Roraima and Amapa) did not follow the countrywide pattern and had inconsistent timing of dengue epidemics throughout the study period.\n\nWe also explored epidemic synchrony and timing of annual dengue cycles in Brazilian regions. Using gravity style models combined with climate factors, we showed that both human mobility and vector ecology contribute to spatial patterns of dengue occurrence.\n\nThis study offers a characterization of the spatial dynamics of dengue in Brazil and its drivers, which could inform intervention strategies against dengue and other arboviruses.\n\nAuthor summaryIn this paper we studied the synchronization of dengue epidemics in Brazilian regions. We found that a typical dengue season in Brazil can be described as a wave travelling from the western part of the country towards the east, with the exception of the two most northern equatorial states that experienced inconsistent seasonality of dengue epidemics.\n\nWe found that the spatial structure of dengue cases is driven by both climate and human mobility patterns. In particular, precipitation was the most important factor for the seasonality of dengue at finer spatial resolutions.\n\nOur findings increase our understanding of large scale dengue patterns and could be used to enhance national control programs against dengue and other arboviruses.
BackgroundViruses such as dengue, Zika, yellow fever and chikungunya depend on mosquitoes for transmission. Their epidemics typically present periodic patterns, linked to the underlying mosquito population dynamics, which are known to be driven by natural climate fluctuations. Understanding how climate dictates the timing and potential of viral transmission is essential for preparedness of public health systems and design of control strategies.\n\nResultsWe developed the Mosquito-borne Viral Suitability Estimator (MVSE) software package for the R programming environment. The package estimates a suitability index based on a climate-driven mathematical expression for the basic reproductive number (R0) of a well established mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne viruses. By accounting for local humidity and temperature, as well as viral, vector and human priors, suitability can be estimated for specific host and viral species, as well as different regions of the globe.\n\nConclusionsHere, we describe the background theory and biological interpretation of the new suitability index, as well as the implementation, basic functionality, research and educational potentials of the MVSE R-package. The package is freely available under the GPL 3.0 license.
Zika has emerged as a global public health concern. Although its rapid geographic expansion can be attributed to the success of its Aedes mosquito vectors, local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. The city of Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the early phases of the Chikungunya and Zika epidemics in Brazil. Here, using a climate-driven transmission model, we show that low Zika observation rates and a high vectorial capacity in this region were responsible for a high attack rate during the 2015 outbreak and the subsequent decline in cases in 2016, when the epidemic was peaking in the rest of the country. Our projections indicate that the balance between the loss of herd-immunity and the frequency of viral re-importation will dictate the transmission potential of Zika in this region in the near future. Sporadic outbreaks are expected but unlikely to be detected under current surveillance systems.