Verburg, P. H. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2024

Narratives for positive nature futures in Europe

O_LIThe Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a novel tool for the development of positive scenarios centred on the relationship of nature and people, emphasising biodiversity as part of the solution to environmental challenges across various spatial and temporal scales, explicitly addressing a plurality of values for nature. C_LIO_LIIn this work, we describe the process that has led to the formulation of continental-scale positive narratives for conservation in Europe based on the NFF and its value perspectives (Nature for Nature; Nature for Society; Nature as Culture), through a stakeholder group elicitation. We focused on 6 topics in the narratives: Nature Protection and Restoration; Forestry; Freshwater Ecosystems; Urban Systems; Agriculture, and Energy. We analyse differences and similarities among the narratives across these topics. C_LIO_LIWe develop three novel Nature Futures narratives for Europe with contrasting perspectives and priorities for the six topics. Within the EU socioeconomic trends and policy framework, common solutions that simultaneously tackle biodiversity conservation and instrumental and cultural Natures Contributions to People (NCP) provision emerged. C_LIO_LIThis set of narratives may integrate preferences concerning EU-level conservation targets and plausible socio-ecological development pathways, supporting the modelling of positive scenarios for nature that can be crucial in guiding policy decisions towards recovery of nature. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Protected area planning to conserve biodiversity in an uncertain future

Protected areas are a key instrument for conservation. Despite this, they are vulnerable to risks associated with weak governance, land use intensification, and climate change. Using a novel hierarchical optimization approach, we identified priority areas for expanding the global protected area system to explicitly account for such risks whilst maximizing protection of all known terrestrial vertebrate species. We illustrate how reducing exposure to these risks requires expanding the area of the global protected area system by 1.6% while still meeting conservation targets. Incorporating risks from weak governance drove the greatest changes in spatial priorities for protection, while incorporating risks from climate change required the largest increase in global protected area. Conserving wide-ranging species required countries with relatively strong governance to protect more land when bordering nations with comparatively weak governance. Our results underscore the need for cross-jurisdictional coordination and demonstrate how risk can be efficiently incorporated into conservation planning. Article Impact StatementAccounting for governance, land use and climate risks will result in more resilient and effective conservation effort for biodiversity.

ecology↗