Vancine, M. H. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2023

The Atlantic Forest of South America: spatiotemporal dynamic of remaining vegetation and implications for conservation

The Atlantic Forest in South America (AF) is one of the worlds most diverse and threatened biodiversity hotspots. We present a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of 34 years of AF landscape change between 1986-2020. We analyzed landscape metrics of forest vegetation only (FV), forest plus other natural vegetation (NV), and investigated the sensitivity of metrics to linear infrastructure. Currently, remnants comprise about 23% of FV and 36% of NV, and have decreased by 2.4% and 3.6% since 1986, respectively. Linear infrastructure negatively affected large fragments (>500,000 ha) by breaking them apart. Our findings suggest that AF protection legislation adopted in mid-2005 has taken effect: between 1986-2005, there was a loss of FV and NV (3% and 3.45%) and a decrease in the number of FV and NV fragments (8.6% and 8.3%). Between 2005-2020, there was a relative recovery of FV (1 Mha; 0.6%), slight loss of NV (0.25 Mha; 0.15%) and increase in the number of FV and NV fragments (12% and 9%). Still, 97% of the vegetation fragments are small (<50 ha), with an average fragment size between 16 and 26 ha. Furthermore, 50-60% of the vegetation is <90 m from its edges, and the isolation between fragments is high (250-830 m). Alarmingly, protected areas and indigenous territories cover only 10% of the AF and are very far from any fragments (>10 km). Our work highlights the importance of legislation and landscape dynamics analysis to help monitor and keep track of AF biodiversity conservation and restoration programs in the future. HighlightsO_LIThere is 23% forest and 36% natural vegetation cover remaining in the Atlantic Forest. C_LIO_LIBetween 1986-2020, native forest cover decreased by 2.4% and natural vegetation by 3.6%. C_LIO_LISince 2005, there has been a 1 Mha increase in forest area by small fragments (1 ha). C_LIO_LIRoads and railways reduced by 56%-89% fragment size, especially on large fragments. C_LIO_LIAlarmingly, 97% of fragments are small (<50 ha) and 60% are under edge effect (<90 m). C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Present and future distribution of bat hosts of sarbecoviruses: implications for conservation and public health

Global changes in response to human encroachment into natural habitats and carbon emissions are driving the biodiversity extinction crisis and increasing disease emergence risk. Host distributions are one critical component to identify areas at risk of spillover, and bats act as reservoirs of diverse viruses. We developed a reproducible ecological niche modelling pipeline for bat hosts of SARS-like viruses (subgenus Sarbecovirus), given that since SARS-CoV-2 emergence several closely-related viruses have been discovered and sarbecovirus-host interactions have gained attention. We assess sampling biases and model bats current distributions based on climate and landscape relationships and project future scenarios. The most important predictors of species distribution were temperature seasonality and cave availability. We identified concentrated host hotspots in Myanmar and projected range contractions for most species by 2100. Our projections indicate hotspots will shift east in Southeast Asia in >2 {degrees}C hotter locations in a fossil-fueled development future. Hotspot shifts have implications for conservation and public health, as loss of population connectivity can lead to local extinctions, and remaining hotspots may concentrate near human populations.

ecology↗