Vallejos, C. E. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2021

Dynamic Gene-Based Ecophysiological Models to Predict Phenotype from Genotype and Environment Data

Predicting the phenotype from the genotype is one of the major contemporary challenges in biology. This challenge is greater in plants because their development occurs mostly post-embryonically under diurnal and seasonal environmental fluctuations. Current phenotype prediction models do not adequately capture all of these fluctuations or effectively use genotype information. Instead, we have developed a dynamic modular approach that captures the genotype, environment, and Genotype-by-Environment effects to express the time-to-flowering phenotype in real time in Phaseolus vulgaris. The module we describe can be applied to different plant processes and can gradually replace processes in existing crop models. Our model can enable accelerated progress in diverse breeding programs, particularly with the prospects of climate change. Finally, a gene-based simulation model can assist policy decision makers in matters pertaining to prediction of food supplies.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2021

INCORPORATING A DYNAMIC GENE-BASED PROCESS MODULE INTO A CROP SIMULATION MODEL

Dynamic crop simulation models are tools that predict plant phenotype grown in specific environments for genotypes using genotype-specific parameters (GSPs), often referred to as "genetic coefficients." These GSPs are estimated using phenotypic observations and may not represent "true" genetic information. Instead, estimating GSPs requires experiments to measure phenotypic responses when new cultivars are released. The goal of this study was to evaluate a new approach that incorporates a dynamic gene-based module for simulating time-to-flowering for common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) into an existing dynamic crop model. A multi-environment study conducted in 2011 and 2012 included 187 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) from a bi-parental bean family to measure the effects of quantitative trait loci (QTL), environment (E), and QTLxE interactions across five sites. The dynamic mixed linear model from Vallejos et al. (2020) was modified in this study to create a dynamic module that was then integrated into the CSM-CROPGRO-Drybean model. This new hybrid crop model, with the gene-based flowering module replacing the original flowering component, requires allelic makeup of each genotype being simulated and daily E data. The hybrid model was compared to the original CSM model using the same E data and previously estimated GSPs to simulate time-to-flower. The integrated gene-based module simulated days of first flower agreed closely with observed values (root mean square error of 2.73 days and model efficiency of 0.90) across the five locations and 187 genotypes. The hybrid model with its gene-based module also described most of the G, E and GxE effects on time-to-flower and was able to predict final yield and other outputs simulated by the original CSM. These results provide the first evidence that dynamic crop simulation models can be transformed into gene-based models by replacing an existing process module with a gene-based module for simulating the same process.

genomics↗