Biology subjects

Trugman, A. T.

Publications and source records attributed to Trugman, A. T..

5 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

A global analysis of climate-driven reversal risks in forests

The integrity of forest-based climate solutions and carbon credits requires persistent carbon storage, but climate change is increasing the risk of natural disturbances that release carbon back into the atmosphere. Using global satellite data, disturbance modeling, and machine learning, we provide the first spatially explicit and scenario-based maps of long-term probability of carbon loss in global forests under different disturbance severities and climate scenarios. We find that North American conifer forests, tropical rainforests, and Asian (sub)tropical dry forests face the greatest risks, and that Eurasian temperate forests, African (sub)tropical dry forests face the lowest. Globally, the likelihood of reversals over 100 years is 31%-42% across all scenarios. Our work helps to maximize the benefits of forest-based climate solutions by informing more strategic project placement and more robust reversal-risk compensation mechanisms, such as buffer pools, and highlights critical additional science to better understand and manage risks of these essential climate solutions. Plain Language SummaryForests can help slow and lessen climate impacts. However, in places this benefit is becoming less reliable as climate change increases natural disturbances such as wildfires, drought, storms, and insect outbreaks, which can release stored carbon back into the atmosphere. In this study, we created the first scenario-based global maps of risks and found that the risk of carbon loss is widespread and highly variable across regions, with especially high vulnerability in North American conifer forests, tropical rainforests, and Asian tropical and subtropical dry forests. Our study highlights the importance of considering disturbance risks when siting forest projects for climate mitigation, and developing protocols for carbon markets, such as in voluntary programs and under the UNFCCC Paris Agreement. Key PointsO_LIA demographic model framework estimates the reversal risk from natural disturbances over 100 years in global forests C_LIO_LISpatially explicit maps under different severity scenarios show variation in the integrated 100-year risk of carbon reversal C_LIO_LISpatially explicit maps estimate the required buffer pool needed to compensate for disturbance-driven reversals in global forests C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Maximum water stress is decoupled from climate, traits and growth in a xeric oak

O_LIWidespread drought-induced forest mortality highlights the ecological consequences of climate change, yet our ability to explain, let alone predict, the spatial patterns of forest mortality remains limited. C_LIO_LIWe conducted a range-wide survey of drought stress, growth, and allocation traits in a widespread oak species (Quercus douglasii, blue oak) to test the predictability of stress across populations and explore how water availability and allocation mediate spatial variation in tree growth. C_LIO_LIAcross 15 sites, we found little relationship between end-of-season water availability (predawn leaf water potentials) or maximum water stress (midday water potentials) and climate or soils. Instead, water availability (within and among sites) was predicted by access to deep water resources inferred from stem water stable isotopes. C_LIO_LIWe also found a remarkable three-way decoupling of water stress, growth, and allocation to leaf tissue, which challenged a data-parameterized mechanistic plant model. C_LIO_LIOur results reveal that deeply rooted trees can be hydrologically decouple from above-ground climate, and that the seasonality of growth, trait development and hydraulic risk are phenologically disconnected. The complicated relationship between carbon gain and hydraulic risk in seasonal environments and limited data on critical zone hydrology are key challenges to predicting drought vulnerability. C_LI Plain Language SummaryBelow-ground structure complicates our understanding of plant water stress. We show that below-ground complexity and highly seasonal environments can both disconnect trees from their above-ground climate and disconnect drought mortality risk from growth and trait development.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Current forest carbon offset buffer pools do not adequately insure against disturbance-driven carbon losses

Nature-based climate solutions in Earths forests could strengthen the land carbon sink and contribute to climate mitigation, but must adequately account for climate risks to the durability of carbon storage. Forest carbon offset protocols use a buffer pool to insure against disturbance risks that may compromise durability. However, current buffer pool tools and allocations are not based on existing scientific data or models. Here, we use a tropical forest stand biomass model and an extensive set of long-term tropical forest plots to test whether current buffer pools are adequate to insure against observed disturbance regimes. We find that forest age and disturbance regime both influence necessary buffer pool sizes. In the vast majority of disturbance scenarios, current buffer pools are substantially smaller than required by carbon cycle science. Buffer pool estimates urgently need to be updated based on rigorous, open scientific datasets for nature-based climate solutions to succeed. Plain Language SummaryForests could contribute to climate mitigation through conservation and restoration activities. Carbon offsets are a widespread pathway to fund these nature-based climate solutions in forests, but must account for the risks to durability that forests face in a changing climate. Current carbon offset protocols have a buffer pool to insure against risk in different disturbance regimes, but the buffer pool contributions have not been tested with observed disturbance regimes and rigorous models. We tested these contributions using widespread tropical forest plot data and a carbon cycle model and find that the current buffer pool contributions are generally not adequate for most disturbance regimes. Our results highlight that better datasets, models, and tools are urgently needed in forest carbon offset protocols. Key pointsO_LINature-based climate solutions in forests face substantial and rising climate risks to durability C_LIO_LICarbon offsets use a buffer pool to insure against disturbance, which is not currently based on rigorous evidence C_LIO_LIOur results reveal current carbon offset protocols do not have an adequate buffer pool for most tropical forest disturbance regimes C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Climate risks to carbon sequestration in US forests

Forests are currently a substantial carbon sink globally. Many climate change mitigation strategies rely on forest preservation and expansion, but the effectiveness of these approaches hinges on forests sequestering carbon for centuries despite anthropogenic climate change. Yet climate-driven disturbances pose critical risks to the long-term stability of forest carbon. We quantify the key climate drivers that fuel wildfire, drought, and insects, for the United States over 1984-2018 and project future disturbance risks over the 21st century. We find that current risks are widespread and projected to increase across different emission scenarios by a factor of 4-14 for fire and 1.3-1.8 for drought and insects. Our results provide insights for carbon cycle modeling, conservation, and climate policy, underscoring the escalating climate risks facing forests and the need for emissions reductions to mitigate climate change.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Systematic over-crediting in California's forest carbon offsets program

Carbon offsets are widely used by individuals, corporations, and governments to mitigate their greenhouse gas emissions on the assumption that offsets reflect equivalent climate benefits achieved elsewhere. These climate-equivalence claims depend on offsets providing "additional" climate benefits beyond what would have happened, counterfactually, without the offsets project. Here, we evaluate the design of Californias prominent forest carbon offsets program and demonstrate that its climate-equivalence claims fall far short on the basis of directly observable evidence. By design, Californias program awards large volumes of offset credits to forest projects with carbon stocks that exceed regional averages. This paradigm allows for adverse selection, which could occur if project developers preferentially select forests that are ecologically distinct from unrepresentative regional averages. By digitizing and analyzing comprehensive offset project records alongside detailed forest inventory data, we provide direct evidence that comparing projects against coarse regional carbon averages has led to systematic over-crediting of 30.0 million tCO2e (90% CI: 20.5 to 38.6 million tCO2e) or 29.4% of the credits we analyzed (90% CI: 20.1 to 37.8%). These excess credits are worth an estimated $410 million (90% CI: $280 to $528 million) at recent market prices. Rather than improve forest management to store additional carbon, Californias offsets program creates incentives to generate offset credits that do not reflect real climate benefits. Significance StatementForest carbon offsets are increasingly prominent in corporate and government "net zero" emission strategies, but face growing criticism about their efficacy. Californias forest offsets program is frequently promoted as a high-quality approach that improves on the failures of earlier efforts. Our analysis demonstrates, however, that substantial ecological and statistical shortcomings in the design of Californias forest offset protocol generate offset credits that do not reflect real climate benefits. Looking globally, our results illustrate how protocol designs with easily exploitable rules can undermine policy objectives and highlight the need for stronger governance in carbon offset markets.

ecology↗