Tijerin-Trivino, J. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2026

Contrasting trends in forest growth and mortality of major European tree species under increasing climatic stress

Forests play a crucial role in mitigating climate change as primary terrestrial carbon sinks. While some studies suggest that global warming enhances forest productivity, a growing body of evidence highlights detrimental impact primarily driven by increased water stress. Yet the extent to which positive effects of climate change offset its negative impacts on tree species productivity remains unclear at large spatial extents. We assessed forest growth and mortality for the 21 most abundant tree species in Europe using National Forest Inventory data from more than 50,000 plots and 700,000 trees to disentangle the relative importance of climate and forest structure. Specifically, we examined how vapor pressure deficit (VPD) anomalies across species climatic edges and stand developmental stages affect forest growth and mortality occurrence and intensity (i.e. whether mortality occurred and the amount of basal area lost). Then, we aggregated the responses across species and separately for broad-leaved and needle-leaved species to assess whether forest growth and mortality differed between major functional groups. Although the importance of forest growth and mortality drivers varied markedly among species, climate had a stronger influence on mortality than on growth, particularly in needle-leaved species. Forest growth declined and mortality increased along VPD anomaly in most species and forests studied. Responses were most pronounced at arid species edges in early-stage broad-leaved forests and at wet edges in late-stage needle-leaved forests, where differences between functional groups were also highest. We evidence the need to parametrise species-specific models of forest growth and mortality across large spatial extents to better understand and predict effects of climate change on forest productivity. In addition, our results emphasize the importance of improving the understanding of forest mortality processes given the strong influence of climate on mortality, while also further studying vulnerable populations to climate change in arid edges of species distributions.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Forest structural diversity determines tree growth synchrony in response to climate change

After centuries of deforestation, many industrialised countries are experiencing an increase in forest area and biomass due to changes in land- and forest-use since the mid-20th century. At the same time, the impacts of climate change on forests are aggravating, but the interplay between past land- and forest-use (i.e. land- and forest-use legacies) and climate change in forest functioning remains elusive. Here using network theory and linear mixed models, we quantified how land- and forest-use legacies modulate tree growth synchrony in response to climate change. We analysed tree growth data from European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) stands with different histories of forest management at the species rear edge. We found that tree growth synchrony increased following heatwaves, late spring frosts, and reduced precipitation. Interestingly, the greatest tree growth synchrony occurred in recently-established forests, while stands containing large trees and heterogeneous tree sizes showed much lower growth synchrony. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining large trees and structurally heterogeneous forests to mitigate the negative effects of climate change on forest productivity, and thereby, increase forest resilience to future forest climate risks.

ecology↗