Biology subjects

Thorne, J. H.

Publications and source records attributed to Thorne, J. H..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Regional gene-environment association models improve insights into agents and targets of selection by climate in Mimulus guttatus

Genotype-environment association (GEA) approaches identify genetic variants that likely contribute to adaptation along environmental gradients. These associations can inform predictive models of maladaptation risk and evolutionary rescue in future climates. However, because population structure and climate parameters often co-vary, tradeoffs arise between accounting for population structure to reduce false positive associations and removing true positives. Here, we examine whether conducting GEA analyses at multiple spatial scales provides more informative associations by mitigating confounds between population structure and environment, and we evaluate what factors influence how congruent GEA results are across regions. We performed GEA analyses for climate parameters on genome resequencing data obtained for 110 annual populations of the common monkeyflower, Mimulus guttatus. We find that more genetic variation was specifically attributable to environmental variation in regional GEA models compared to a full-range model, and that agents of selection differ considerably in importance among regions and range-wide. Few genetic targets of selection shared across regions were detected, yet all regions possess ample standing genetic variation for most environment-associated variants, suggesting that regional differences in climate breadth may be a primary cause of this incongruence. In combination with a genome-wide association study for several climate-associated phenotypes, we also find that regulators of flowering repressors in the FLC/MAF gene family often harbor adaptive variation in this species. Together, our results suggest that GEA analyses of widespread species considerably benefit from examining both range-wide and regional trends to more fully capture and understand the agents and targets of climate adaptation.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2020

Insects and recent climate change

Insects have diversified through 400 million years of Earths changeable climate, yet recent and ongoing shifts in patterns of temperature and precipitation pose novel challenges as they combine with decades of other anthropogenic stressors including the conversion and degradation of land. Here we consider how insects are responding to recent climate change, while summarizing the literature on long-term monitoring of insect populations in the context of climatic fluctuations. Results to date suggest that climate change impacts on insects have the potential to be considerable, even when compared to changes in land use. The importance of climate is illustrated with a case study from the butterflies of Northern California, where we find that population declines have been severe in high-elevation areas removed from the most immediate effects of habitat loss. These results shed light on the complexity of montane-adapted insects responding to changing abiotic conditions and raise questions about the utility of temperate mountains as refugia during the Anthropocene. We consider methodological issues that would improve syntheses of results across long-term insect datasets and highlight directions for future empirical work. Significance statementAnthropogenic climate change poses multiple threats to society and biodiversity, and challenges our understanding of the resilience of the natural world. We discuss recent ideas and evidence on this issue and conclude that the impacts of climate change on insects in particular have the potential to be more severe than might have been expected a decade ago. Finally, we suggest practical measures that include the protection of diverse portfolios of species, not just those inhabiting what are currently the most pristine areas.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

A winner in the Anthropocene: changing host plant distribution explains geographic range expansion in the gulf fritillary butterfly

O_LIThe changing climate is altering the geographic distributions of species around the world with consequences for population dynamics, resulting in winners and losers in the Anthropocene.\nC_LIO_LIAgraulis vanillae, the gulf fritillary butterfly, has expanded its range in the past one hundred years in the western United States. We combine time series analysis with species distribution modeling to investigate factors limiting the distribution of A. vanillae and to predict future shifts under warming scenarios.\nC_LIO_LIIn the western US, where we have time series and geographic data, urban development has a positive influence (the host plant is an ornamental in gardens), being associated with year of colonization. Colonization was also associated to a lesser extent with winter maximum temperatures, while a negative impact of minimum temperatures and precipitation was apparent on population growth rates.\nC_LIO_LIAcross the country, the butterfly is primarily limited by host availability and positively affected by human presence. Perhaps counter-intuitively for a largely tropical ectotherm, current effects of a warming climate (in the years post-colonization) are either negative (on population growth rate) or indirect, likely mediated through availability of areas that can support the host.\nC_LIO_LIUnder future climate scenarios, conditions are predicted to become more suitable for Passiflora in many urban areas, which would likely result in further expansion of A. vanillae during the dispersive season. These results illustrate the value of combining time series with spatial modeling to understand and predict shifting geographic ranges in the Anthropocene.\nC_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Impacts of a millennium drought on butterfly faunal dynamics

Climate change is challenging plants and animals not only with increasing temperatures, but also with shortened intervals between extreme weather events. Relatively little is known about diverse assemblages of organisms responding to extreme weather, and even less is known about landscape and life history properties that might mitigate effects of extreme weather. We find that northern California butterflies were impacted by a millennium-scale drought differentially at low and high elevations. At low elevations, phenological shifts facilitated persistence and even recovery during drought, while at higher elevations a shortened flight season was associated with decreases in species richness. Phenological and faunal dynamics are predicted by temperature and precipitation, thus advancing the possibility of understanding and forecasting biological responses to extreme weather.

ecology↗