Biology subjects

Thompson, P. L.

Publications and source records attributed to Thompson, P. L..

14 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Temperature and flow impacts on spawner-to-fry production in Okanagan sockeye salmon

Okanagan sockeye salmon have shown a strong recovery over the past three decades, but the contribution of environmental conditions and management actions to this recovery has not been determined. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model linking spawner abundances to fry emergence observations to evaluate how flow and water temperature during adult upstream migration and incubation periods influence spawner-to-fry production. Production declined by 62% in years with earlier onset and longer duration of periods when warm river temperatures created barriers to adult migration, indicating that migration conditions can have carry-over effects on reproductive success even when spawners successfully reach the spawning grounds. Additionally, production was 46% lower when flows fell above or below the management target range designed to minimize scour and desiccation during egg incubation. In contrast, we found little support for effects of pre-spawning flows or incubation temperature on production. These findings provide quantitative evidence that current flow management is increasing freshwater spawner-to-fry production and has likely contributed to the Okanagan sockeye recovery. Effective flow management may therefore help offset climate-driven impacts that increasingly threaten this population.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Climate Impacts on Sockeye Salmon Productivity Vary Across Life Stages and Regions

Many Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations have declined over recent decades, and climate change is likely to exacerbate these declines through direct and indirect ecological effects. The response to the associated environmental changes is likely to vary among life stages, populations, and regions. Quantitative estimates of climate change driven impacts that account for this variability could fill a critical gap and provide forward-looking insights into how sockeye are expected to respond to future climate-driven change across their lifecycle. To address this need we developed a hierarchical population dynamics model parameterized with juvenile, adult return and spawner abundance data from 13 sockeye salmon populations from Washington State to northern British Columbia. We used a formal causal inference framework that paired salmon abundance data with a suite of environmental covariates hypothesized to represent ecological conditions across the lifecycle. We used the model to estimate population-specific responses to each environmental driver, then combined parameter estimates with projections from down-scaled climate change models to estimate productivity responses to anticipated environmental change. We found that historical sockeye productivity was strongly associated with environmental covariates, which explained more interannual variability in return abundance than spawner abundance in most populations. However, the life stages and specific environmental covariates with the largest impacts differed among populations and regions, often displaying a latitudinal gradient. Increases in coastal ocean temperatures and mixed layer depth generally had negative effects though they varied among regions. Increased freshwater summer rearing and return migration temperatures had weaker but consistently negative effects. Under future climate conditions, projected changes in these environmental covariates are expected to result in substantial declines in productivity across most populations. Sockeye salmon display varying degrees of sensitivity to climate change across life stages, populations, and regions. Effective future management will require explicitly accounting for these life stage and population-specific responses.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Dispersal transiently modifies the temperature dependence of ecosystem productivity after an extreme thermal fluctuation

Effects of warming on ecosystem productivity are typically summarized over broad time scales, yet they emerge from communities that can reorganize in a matter of days. Temperature accelerates ecosystem productivity through predictable effects on metabolic rates, but dispersal across thermally heterogeneous metacommunities may modify this effect by redistributing communities and their underlying thermal phenotypes. Using multi-trophic freshwater mesocosm communities in which warming and dispersal were manipulated, we tested the hypothesis that increasing dispersal modifies the thermal sensitivity of gross primary productivity (GPP) through the redistribution of phytoplankton biomass, size spectra, and thermal phenotype composition along spatial thermal gradients. High dispersal temporarily weakened the thermal sensitivity of GPP after an unplanned heatwave. This effect was caused by reduced mass-specific GPP in the warmest mesocosms accompanied by regional homogenization of phytoplankton communities and the spread of poorly adapted thermal phenotypes under the highest dispersal treatments. Except immediately post-heatwave, the thermal sensitivity of GPP was robust to dispersal, despite evidence of metacommunity dynamics. These findings suggest that the temperature dependence of ecosystem metabolism can be briefly modified by dispersal after a perturbation, but remains robust under steady-state conditions.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

General predictions for the effects of warming on competition

Understanding the effects of climate change on ecological communities has been limited by a lack of general theory for how temperature affects competition. To fill this knowledge gap, we integrated Modern Coexistence Theory and the Metabolic Theory of Ecology by incorporating empirically-derived temperature sensitivities into Modern Coexistence Theorys central model. We then simulated warming in consumer-resource systems and found that warming reduced both niche and fitness differences, making species more ecologically similar and competitive interactions more neutral. The greatest shifts in competition occurred when temperature sensitivities among species were highly asymmetrical. Effects of warming on competition via niche differences were comparable to those on fitness differences, suggesting that the emphasis on vital rates in global change research may overlook key biodiversity drivers. This general theory expands the domains of two prominent ecological theories and provides predictions for how warming may alter competition even in benign regions of species thermal niches.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Dispersal evolution can only rescue a limited set of species from climate change

Anthropogenic climate change threatens biodiversity on Earth. In response, species can adapt evolutionarily to changing environments or shift their ranges via dispersal. However, dispersal itself can evolve on ecological timescales. We explore theoretically how dispersal evolution modulates the response of metacommunities to climate change. We find that this response depends on the environmental conditions prior to climate change. Variable environments harbour few, dispersive species that are likely to survive climate change by shifting their ranges with their evolved dispersal abilities. Stable environments house many, less dispersive species. Their survival during climate change is less likely, as they can evolve robust, low dispersal traits that prevent range shifts. We identify a limited set of scenarios in which contemporary dispersal evolution can rescue species from climate change, highlighting the importance of species evolutionary histories and evolutionary rates, as determined by their genotype-phenotype maps, for their responses to rapid environmental change.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Quantifying marine larval dispersal to assess MPA network connectivity and inform future national and transboundary planning efforts

A Marine Protected Area (MPA) network, in which multiple reserves are designated in a region, can promote the protection of biodiversity across space. To be effective as a network, the design must consider whether MPAs are likely to be connected through the movement of individuals of species of interest. Additionally, network design may explicitly incorporate design features that promote biodiversity in unprotected habitats through the dispersal or spillover of multiple species. Patterns of dispersal and the ability of MPAs to function as an interacting network, however, are difficult to estimate at broad and transboundary spatial scales, and therefore connectivity is often not fully integrated in the design and assessment of MPA networks. Here, we model the dispersal of multiple nearshore species to estimate the potential connectivity of the existing MPAs in British Columbia, Canada, including connections to MPAs in the United States by simulating dispersal using a biophysical model with regional oceanographic currents. We found that MPAs in BC potentially meet connectivity design criteria for nearshore invertebrate species: the majority of MPAs (65-90%) are likely to exchange individuals (i.e. functional connectivity) and support persistent metapopulations, and more than half the unprotected coast (55-85%) receives a large proportion of the larvae produced in MPAs. Furthermore, we found that species dispersal abilities and the level of exposure of an MPA to open ocean can predict dispersal distance when we account for the random effects of dispersal location and season. Therefore, future predictions of connectivity are possible based on these core biological and physical attributes, without running new simulations. Together, these analyses provide a robust and novel assessment of multi-species connectivity that can support the design of new MPAs with transboundary connectivity on the northwest coast of North America.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Groundfish biodiversity change in northeast Pacific waters under projected warming and deoxygenation

In the coming decades, warming and deoxygenation of marine waters are anticipated to result in shifts in the distribution and abundance of fishes, with consequences for the diversity and composition of fish communities. Here, we combine fisheries independent trawl survey data spanning the west coast of the USA and Canada with high resolution regional ocean models to make projections of how 34 groundfish species will be impacted by changes in temperature and oxygen in British Columbia (B.C.) and Washington. In this region, species that are projected to decrease in occurrence are roughly balanced by those that are projected to increase, resulting in considerable compositional turnover. Many, but not all, species are projected to shift to deeper depths as conditions warm, but low oxygen will limit how deep they can go. Thus, biodiversity will likely decrease in the shallowest waters (< 100 m) where warming will be greatest, increase at mid depths (100--600 m) as shallow species shift deeper, and decrease at depths where oxygen is limited (> 600 m). These results highlight the critical importance of accounting for the joint role of temperature, oxygen, and depth when projecting the impacts of climate change on marine biodiversity.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Macroecological variation in movement profiles: body size does not explain it all

Animals couple habitats by three types of movement: dispersal, migration, and foraging, which dynamically link populations, communities, and ecosystems. Spatial distances of movement tend to correlate with each other, reflecting shared allometric scaling with body size, but may diverge due to biomechanical, phylogenetic, and ecological constraints. While these constraints have been investigated within specific taxa, the macroecological and macroevolutionary constraints on movement distances, and causes of those constraints, are still unknown. Here, we synthesized distances of all three movement types across 300+ vertebrate species, and investigated how the relationships between movement types and body size were modified by movement medium, taxonomy, and trophic guild (carnivore, herbivore, etc.). We found that the strength of relationships between movement types and body size varied among environments, taxa, and trophic guilds. Movement profiles interacted with physiological, taxonomic, and ecological traits to depart from expected body mass scaling. Overall, we find that there are systematic patterns to movement distances, and that movement types with very distinct ecological consequences (foraging, migration) can be correlated and subject to similar constraints. This implies that the scales of population dynamics in ecological communities are not entirely determined by the environment and likely reflect general biomechanical, evolutionary and metabolic constraints.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Scaling up biodiversity ecosystem functioning relationships: the role of environmental variability in space and time

The biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF) relationship is expected to be scale-dependent. The autocorrelation of environmental heterogeneity is hypothesized to explain this scale dependence because it influences how quickly biodiversity accumulates over space or time. However, this link has yet to be demonstrated in a formal model. Here we use a Lotka-Volterra competition model to simulate community dynamics when environmental conditions vary across either space or time. Species differ in their optimal environmental conditions, which results in turnover in community composition. We vary biodiversity by modelling communities with different sized regional species pools and ask how the amount of biomass per unit area depends on the number of species present, and the spatial or temporal scale at which it is measured. We find that more biodiversity is required to maintain functioning at larger temporal and spatial scales. The number of species required increases quickly when environmental autocorrelation is low, and slowly when autocorrelation is high. Both spatial and temporal environmental heterogeneity led to scale dependence in BEF, but autocorrelation had larger impacts when environmental change was temporal. These findings show how the biodiversity required to maintain functioning is expected to increase over space and time.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Disentangling metacommunity processes using multiple metrics in space and time

Metacommunity ecology has focused on using observational and analytical approaches to disentangle the role of critical assembly processes, such as dispersal limitation and environmental filtering. Many methods have been proposed for this purpose, most notably multivariate analyses of species abundance and its association with variation in spatial and environmental conditions. These approaches tend to focus on few emergent properties of metacommunities and have largely ignored temporal community dynamics. By doing so, these are limited in their ability to differentiate metacommunity dynamics. Here, we develop a Virtual ecologist approach to evaluate critical metacommunity assembly processes based on a number of summary statistics of community structure across space and time. Specifically, we first simulate metacommunities emphasizing three main processes that underlie metacommunity dynamics (density-independent responses to abiotic conditions, density-dependent biotic interactions, and dispersal). We then calculate a number of commonly used summary statistics of community structure in space and time, and use random forests to evaluate their utility for understanding the strength of these three processes. We found that: (i) time series are necessary to disentangle metacommunity processes, (ii) each of the three studied processes is distinguished with different descriptors, (iii) each summary statistic is differently sensitive to temporal and spatial sampling effort. Some of the most useful statistics include the coefficient of variation of abundances through time and metrics that incorporate variation in the relative abundances (evenness) of species. Surprisingly, we found that when we only used a single snapshot of community variation in space, the most commonly used approaches based on variation partitioning were largely uninformative regarding assembly processes, particularly, variation in dispersal. We conclude that a combination of methods and summary statistics will be necessary to understand the processes that underlie metacommunity assembly through space and time.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

A process-based framework for metacommunity ecology

The metacommunity concept has the potential to integrate local and regional dynamics within a general community ecology framework. To this end, the concept must move beyond the discrete archetypes that have largely defined it (e.g. neutral vs. species sorting) and better incorporate local scale species interactions and coexistence mechanisms. Here, we present a fundamental reconception of the framework that explicitly links local coexistence theory to the spatial processes inherent to metacommunity theory, allowing for a continuous range of competitive community dynamics. These dynamics emerge from the three underlying processes that shape ecological communities: 1) density-independent responses to abiotic conditions, 2) density-dependent biotic interactions, and 3) dispersal. Stochasticity is incorporated in the demographic realization of each of these processes. We formalize this framework using a simulation model that explores a wide range of competitive metacommunity dynamics by varying the strength of the underlying processes. Using this model and framework, we show how existing theories, including the traditional metacommunity archetypes, are linked by this common set of processes. We then use the model to generate new hypotheses about how the three processes combine to interactively shape diversity, functioning, and stability within metacommunities. Statement of authorshipThis project was conceived at the sTURN working group, of which all authors are members. PLT developed the framework and model with input from all authors. PLT wrote the model code. PLT and LMG performed the simulations. PLT produced the figures and wrote the first draft with input from LMG and JMC. All authors provided feedback and edits on several versions of the manuscript. Data accessibilityAll code for running the simulation model and producing the figures is archived on Zenodo - https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3833035.

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bioRxiv2018

The conflict between adaptation and dispersal for maintaining biodiversity in changing environments

Dispersal and adaptation both allow species to persist in changing environments. Yet, we have limited understanding of how these processes interact to affect species persistence, especially in diverse communities where biotic interactions greatly complicate responses to environmental change. Here we use a stochastic metacommunity model to demonstrate how dispersal and adaptation to environmental change independently and interactively contribute to biodiversity maintenance. Dispersal provides spatial insurance, whereby species persist on the landscape by shifting their distributions to track favourable conditions. In contrast, adaptation allows species to persist by allowing for evolutionary rescue. But, when species both adapt and disperse, dispersal and adaptation do not combine positively to affect biodiversity maintenance, even if they do increase the persistence of individual species. This occurs because faster adapting species evolve to hold onto their initial ranges (i.e. monopolization effects), thus impeding slower adapting species from shifting their ranges and thereby causing extinctions. Importantly, these differences in adaptation speed emerge as the result of competition, which alters population sizes and colonization success. By demonstrating how dispersal and adaptation each independently and interactively contribute to the maintenance of biodiversity, we provide a framework that links the theories of spatial insurance, evolutionary rescue, and monopolization. This highlights the expectation that the maintenance of biodiversity in changing environments depends jointly on rates of dispersal and adaptation, and, critically, the interaction between these processes.\n\nSignificance StatementSpecies can persist when the environment changes by shifting their ranges through dispersal or by adapting to the new conditions that they experience. Thus, we might expect that dispersal and adaptation in combination would increase persistence. Using a simulation model, we show that this may not be the case. Instead, species competition causes dispersal and adaptation to have conflicting contributions to biodiversity maintenance. Dispersal and adaptation each independently increase biodiversity maintenance. But when species both disperse and evolve, faster adapting species persist in their current ranges, preventing others from shifting their ranges to track environmental change. These findings highlight the need to consider ecological and evolutionary processes together, or we risk underestimating how global change will impact biodiversity.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Regional connectivity, local environmental conditions, and biotic interactions jointly structure a temperate seagrass epifaunal metacommunity

Ecological communities are jointly structured by dispersal, density-independent responses to environmental conditions and density-dependent biotic interactions. Metacommunity ecology provides a framework for understanding how these processes combine to determine community composition among local sites that are regionally connected through dispersal. In 17 temperate seagrass meadows along the British Columbia coast, we tested the hypothesis that eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) epifaunal invertebrate assemblages are influenced by local environmental conditions, but that high dispersal rates at larger spatial scales dampen effects of environmental differences. We used hierarchical joint species distribution modelling to understand the contribution of environmental conditions, spatial distance between meadows, and species co-occurrences to epifaunal invertebrate abundance and distribution across the region. We found that patterns of taxonomic compositional similarity among meadows were inconsistent with dispersal limitation and meadows in the same region were often no more similar to each other than meadows over 1000 km away. Abiotic environmental conditions (temperature, dissolved oxygen) explained a small fraction of variation in taxonomic abundances patterns across the region. We found novel co-occurrence patterns among taxa that could not be explained by shared responses to environmental gradients, suggesting the possibility that interspecific interactions influence seagrass invertebrate abundance and distribution. Our results add to mounting evidence that suggests that the biodiversity and ecosystem functions provided by seagrass meadows reflect ecological processes occurring both within meadows and across seascapes, and suggest that management of eelgrass habitat for biodiversity may be most effective when both local and regional processes are considered.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Nonlinear averaging of thermal experience predicts population growth rates in a thermally variable environment

As thermal regimes change worldwide, projections of future population and species persistence often require estimates of how population growth rates depend on temperature. These projections rarely account for how temporal variation in temperature can systematically modify growth rates relative to projections based on constant temperatures. Here, we tested the hypothesis that population growth rates in fluctuating thermal environments differ from growth rates in constant conditions, and that the differing thermal performance curves (TPCs) can be predicted quantitatively. With experimental populations of the green alga Tetraselmis tetrahele, we show that nonlinear averaging techniques accurately predicted increased as well as decreased population growth rates in fluctuating thermal regimes relative to constant thermal regimes. We extrapolate from these results to project critical temperatures for population growth and persistence of 89 phytoplankton species in naturally variable thermal environments. These results advance our ability to predict population dynamics in the context of global change.

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