Major evolutionary transitions as Bayesian structure learning
Complexity of life forms on Earth has increased tremendously, primarily driven by subsequent evolutionary transitions in individuality, a mechanism in which units formerly being capable of independent replication combine to form higher-level evolutionary units. Although this process has been likened to the recursive combination of pre-adapted subsolutions in the framework of learning theory, no general mathematical formalization of this analogy has been provided yet. Here we show, building on former results connecting replicator dynamics and Bayesian update, that (i) evolution of a hierarchical population under multilevel selection is equivalent to Bayesian inference in hierarchical Bayesian models, and (ii) evolutionary transitions in individuality, driven by synergistic fitness interactions, is equivalent to learning the structure of hierarchical models via Bayesian model comparison. These correspondences support a learning theory oriented narrative of evolutionary complexification: the complexity and depth of the hierarchical structure of individuality mirrors the amount and complexity of data that has been integrated about the environment through the course of evolutionary history.