Biology subjects

Sunagawa, J.

Publications and source records attributed to Sunagawa, J..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2025

Machine Learning-based Identification and Characterization of High-risk Carriers of HTLV-1-Associated Myelopathy (HAM)

HTLV-1-associated myelopathy (HAM) develops in a part of HTLV-1-infected individuals while most of the individuals remain asymptomatic. This complicates the identification of HTLV-1 carriers at elevated risk. In this study, we integrated HTLV-1 proviral load and antibody titers against Tax, Env, Gag p15, p19, and p24 proteins in a machine learning (ML) framework to identify and characterize high-risk individuals likely to develop HAM. We stratified asymptomatic carrier samples employing an anomaly detection model. We further developed and validated classifier models capable of distinguishing three clinical subgroups, carrier, ATL, and HAM for assessing the anomaly carrier samples as unseen test data. With most anomaly carrier samples ([~]76.47%) predicted as HAM, further statistical and interpretative analysis revealed the HAM-like characteristics of the anomaly carrier samples indicating elevated risk. Additionally, significant heterogeneity in immune response was observed among other asymptomatic carriers. Our machine learning-based approach offers a novel and insightful tool for identifying and evaluating high-risk characteristics for HAM, providing a holistic view of the complex immune dynamics of asymptomatic carriers of HTLV- 1.

systems biology↗

bioRxiv2023

Isolation may select for earlier and higher peak viral load but shorter duration in SARS-CoV-2 evolution

During the COVID-19 pandemic, human behavior change as a result of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as isolation may have induced directional selection for viral evolution. By combining previously published empirical clinical data analysis and multi-level mathematical modeling, we found that the SARS-CoV-2 variants selected for as the virus evolved from the pre-Alpha to the Delta variant had earlier and higher infectious periods but a shorter duration of infection. Selection for increased transmissibility shapes the viral load dynamics, and the isolation measure is likely to be a driver of these evolutionary transitions. In addition, we showed that a decreased incubation period and an increased proportion of asymptomatic infection were also positively selected for as SARS-CoV-2 mutated to the extent that people did not isolate. We demonstrated that the Omicron variants evolved in these ways to adapt to human behavior. The quantitative information and predictions we present here can guide future responses in the potential arms race between pandemic interventions and viral evolution.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2022

Contact-number-driven virus evolution: a multi-level modeling framework for the evolution of acute or persistent RNA virus infection

Viruses evolve in infected host populations, and host population dynamics affect viral evolution. RNA viruses with a short duration of infection and a high peak viral load, such as and SARS-CoV-2, are maintained in human populations. By contrast, RNA viruses characterized by a long infection duration and a low peak viral load (e.g., borna disease virus) can be maintained in nonhuman populations, and why the persistent viruses evolved has been rarely explored. Here, using a multi-level modeling approach including both individual-level virus infection dynamics and population-scale transmission, we consider virus evolution based on the host environment, specifically, the effect of the contact history of infected hosts. We found that, with a highly dense contact history, viruses with a high virus production rate but low accuracy are likely to be optimal, resulting in a short infectious period with a high peak viral load. In contrast, with a low-density contact history, viral evolution is toward low virus production but high accuracy, resulting in long infection durations with low peak viral load. Our study sheds light on the origin of persistent viruses and why acute viral infections but not persistent virus infection tends to prevail in human society.

evolutionary biology↗