Biology subjects

Strom, H.

Publications and source records attributed to Strom, H..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Time-lagged causal inference corroborates presumed drivers of North Atlantic seabird ecology

Disentangling causation from correlation is the foundation of the scientific method. Yet, growing evidence suggests that much observational ecology research has not correctly made this distinction due to inappropriate statistical modelling and unappreciated time-delays. Here, we apply time-lagged causal inference techniques to assess the drivers of seabird declines, using multi-decadal North Atlantic seabird data across the behaviour, mass, survival, reproduction and population size of two species ecology (Atlantic puffin, Fratercula arctica, and black-legged kittiwake, Rissa tridactyla). We demonstrate that both climate and anthropogenic activity can suppress breeding success and cause population declines. Moreover, population size is specifically impacted by delayed recruitment effects where both species decline after a lag corresponding to their estimated age of first reproduction. These North Atlantic seabirds are therefore at risk from future environmental and anthropogenic changes, as time-delays may result in populations already on an extinction trajectory prior to changes being detectable in their abundance.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

AN UPDATED POPULATION ESTIMATE FOR NORTHERN GANNETS ACROSS THEIR NORTH-EAST ATLANTIC BREEDING RANGE FOLLOWING THE 2022 OUTBREAK OF HIGH PATHOGENICITY AVIAN INFLUENZA

Northern gannets (Morus bassanus) have been regarded as a seabird success story, due to population increases throughout the 20th and 21st century contrasting with global seabird declines. However, in 2022 gannets experienced a severe outbreak of High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) across their global distribution, leading to an urgent need to reassess their population status. This study presents breeding gannet census numbers for 2023/24 from all colonies across the North-East Atlantic metapopulation (Great Britain, Ireland, the Channel Islands, Iceland, Norway, the Faroe Islands, France, Germany, Russia). Gannet numbers decreased by 17% across the North-East Atlantic metapopulation between the 2013/14 and 2023/24 census from 414,598 to 345,854 apparently occupied sites (AOS), a global decrease of at least 13%. The bulk of the reduction in AOS was driven by the largest colonies (>10,000 AOS) each losing tens of thousands of AOS. These figures likely underestimate the impact of the HPAI outbreak worldwide, since most colonies will have increased between the last census in 2013/14 and the 2022 HPAI outbreak, and the Canadian breeding population was last counted pre-HPAI outbreak. Scotland still holds the largest proportion of both the North-East Atlantic metapopulation (59%), and the world population (46%), while Great Britain, Ireland and the Channel Islands together hold 83% of the North-East Atlantic metapopulation and 64% of the world population. This study not only presents an updated population census for gannets in the North-East Atlantic but illustrates the large-scale impacts of a disease outbreak on a seabird species across its global range and highlights the importance of more regular census efforts to better quantify the demographic consequences of such events.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Multiple Introductions of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses into the High Arctic: Svalbard and Jan Mayen, 2022 - 2025

Between 2022 and 2025, highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) of clade 2.3.4.4b, including four distinct H5 Eurasian (EA) genotypes, were detected in wild birds and mammals in the Svalbard Archipelago and on the island of Jan Mayen. We describe their epidemiology and genomic characteristics to improve understanding of HPAIV occurrence and transmission in the High Arctic. The initial cases in 2022 occurred during summer and involved a glaucous gull (Larus hyperboreus) and great skuas (Stercorarius skua) on Svalbard and Jan Mayen, representing the first detections of HPAIVs in the High Arctic. Three HPAIV genotypes were identified: EA-2020-C (H5N1), EA-2021-AB (H5N1), and EA-2021-I (H5N5). In 2023, HPAIVs were detected in a broader range of bird species, and retrospectively in an Atlantic walrus reported by another research group (Odobenus rosmarus rosmarus). Genotypes identified in 2023 were EA-2020-C (H5N1), EA-2021-I (H5N5), and EA-2022-BB (H5N1). No cases were reported in 2024. In 2025, EA-2021-I (H5N5) was detected in Arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) on Svalbard, without preceding detections in wild birds. The foxes exhibited neurological symptoms, and necropsy of one individual revealed the presence of feathers in its stomach. All sequenced viruses from the Arctic foxes uniquely carried the combination of PB2-E627K and PB1-H115Q, which is associated with mammalian adaptation. The detection of multiple genotypes indicates repeated and independent introductions of HPAIVs into these regions. The co-circulation of genetically distinct virus strains in areas of high bird density further suggests that Arctic breeding grounds may facilitate local viral amplification, reassortment, and subsequent dissemination along migratory flyways, including transcontinental spread. Data summaryThe authors confirm all supporting data, code and protocols have been provided within the article or through supplementary data files. Influenza A whole genome sequences generated through this study are available under the GISAID accession numbers found in Table 1. All genome sequences and associated metadata supporting the findings of this study can be accessed through the persistent digital object identifier https://doi.org/10.55876/gis8.260211rq. O_TBL View this table: org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@15e1921org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@c3e91borg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1fcfe78org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@a69606org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@c36c74_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_TBL O_FLOATNOTable 1.C_FLOATNO O_TABLECAPTIONDetections of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) in wild birds and mammals sampled in the Svalbard Archipelago and on Jan Mayen from January 1st, 2022, to August 31st, 2025. C_TABLECAPTION C_TBL

microbiology↗