Biology subjects

Staver, C.

Publications and source records attributed to Staver, C..

5 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Sustaining smallholder banana production in Banana Bunchy Top Disease endemic landscapes: integrating clean seed, roguing, and farmer training

Banana bunchy top virus (BBTV) continues to threaten smallholder livelihoods and food security across sub-Saharan Africa. While clean-seed programmes are widely promoted, their long-term effectiveness is often compromised by rapid reinfection in endemic landscapes. We developed an integrated framework combining spatially explicit, stochastic epidemiological modelling with additional cost-benefit analysis and use of socio-behavioural data to evaluate strategies for stabilising production. Our results demonstrate that frequent monthly inspections and accurate symptom detection are essential for disease suppression. Crucially, the economic analysis reveals that prioritizing diagnostic competence as an economic asset is necessary: improving detection efficiency can more than double farmer net revenue under realistic market conditions. Socio-behavioural findings further confirm that a farmers ability to correctly recognise symptoms is the strongest predictor of roguing adoption, far outweighing demographic characteristics. These results provide quantifiable guidance for disease management and highlight that the sustainability of clean-seed interventions hinges on shifting policy from simple seed replacement to investing in farmer diagnostic capacity. Strengthening this local surveillance capability transforms informal seed systems into resilient, durable tools for safeguarding household nutrition and regional food security.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2025

Parameterisation of epidemiological models from small field experiments: a case study of banana bunchy top virus transmission

Accurate estimation of epidemiological parameters from limited field data remains a major challenge in plant disease modeling. We present a novel data-augmented adaptive multiple importance sampling (DA-AMIS) framework that integrates Bayesian inference with stochastic epidemic modeling to estimate key transmission parameters from small field experiments. Using detailed individual-level observations from a 24-plant experiment on the natural spread of banana bunchy top virus (BBTV) in Benin, we jointly inferred infection timing, dispersal characteristics, and transmission rates for both primary and secondary infections. Model validation against independent datasets from BBTV field trials in Burundi and Malawi showed close correspondence between simulated and observed prevalence dynamics, confirming the generality of parameter estimates across regions. The inferred 12% infection rate of replanting suckers underscores the risk of disease introduction through planting material, while simulations identified April as the period of peak infection, providing actionable insights for surveillance timing.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Pathways of forest savannization in a mesic African savanna-forest mosaic

O_LIFires in savannas limit tree cover, thereby promoting flammable grass accumulation and fuelling further frequent fires. Meanwhile, forests and thickets form dense canopies that reduce C4-grass fuel loads and creating a humid microclimate, thereby excluding fires under typical climatic conditions. C_LIO_LIHowever, extreme fires occasionally burn into these closed-canopy systems. Although these rare fires cause substantial tree mortality and can make repeat fires more likely, the long-term consequences of an extreme fire for closed canopy vegetation structure and potential to convert to savanna (hereafter "savannization") remain largely unknown. C_LIO_LIHere, we analysed whether an extreme fire could, alone, alter species composition, vegetation structure, and fire regimes of closed-canopy ecosystems in an intact savanna-forest-thicket mosaic, or whether successive fires after an initial extreme fire were necessary to trigger a biome transition between from forest to savanna. C_LIO_LIWe found that forests that only burned once recovered, whereas those that burned again following an initial extreme fire transitioned from closed-canopy forests towards open, grassy savannas. C_LIO_LIWhile thickets had less tree mortality in fires than forests, repeat fires nonetheless precipitated a transition towards savannas. C_LIO_LIColonization of the savanna tree community lagged behind the grass community, but also began to transition. C_LI SynthesisOur results suggest that rare extreme fires, followed by repeated burning can indeed result in savannization in places where savanna and forest represent alternative stable states.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Decadal changes in fire frequencies shift tree communities and functional traits

Global change has resulted in chronic shifts in fire regimes, increasing fire frequency in some regions and decreasing it in others. Predicting the response of ecosystems to changing fire frequencies is challenging because of the multi-decadal timescales over which fire effects emerge and the variability in environmental conditions, fire types, and plant composition across biomes. Here, we address these challenges using surveys of tree communities across 29 sites that experienced multi-decadal alterations in fire frequencies spanning ecosystems and environmental conditions. Relative to unburned plots, more frequently burned plots had lower tree basal area and stem densities that compounded over multiple decades: average fire frequencies reduced basal area by only 4% after 16 years but 57% after 64 years, relative to unburned plots. Fire frequency had the largest effects on basal area in savanna ecosystems and in sites with strong wet seasons. Analyses of tree functional-trait data across North American sites revealed that frequently burned plots had tree communities dominated by species with low biomass nitrogen and phosphorus content and with more efficient nitrogen acquisition through ectomycorrhizal symbioses (rising from 85% to nearly 100%). Our data elucidate the impact of long-term fire regimes on tree community structure and composition, with the magnitude of change depending on climate, vegetation type, and fire history. The effects of widespread changes in fire regimes underway today will manifest in decades to come and have long-term consequences for carbon storage and nutrient cycling.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Dispersal increases the resilience of tropical savanna and forest distributions

Global change may induce changes in savanna and forest distributions, but the dynamics of these changes remain unclear. Classical biome theory suggests that climate is predictive of biome distributions, such that shifts will be continuous and reversible. This view, however, cannot explain a widely observed mismatch between climate and tree cover, which some argue results from fire-vegetation feedbacks maintaining savanna and forest as bistable states, such that, instead, shifts will be discontinuous and irreversible. This bistable model, however, cannot reproduce the spatial aggregation of biomes. Here, we suggest that both models are limited in that they ignore spatial processes, such as dispersal. We examine the contributions of dispersal to determining savanna and forest distributions using a reaction-diffusion model, comparing results qualitatively to empirical savanna and forest distributions in Africa. The diffusion model induces spatially aggregated distributions, separated by a stable savanna-forest boundary. The equilibrium position of that boundary depends not only on precipitation but also on the curvature of precipitation contours with some history dependence (although less than in the bistable model). This model predicts different dynamics in response to global change: the boundary continuously tracks climate, recovering following disturbances, unless remnant biome patches are too small.

ecology↗