Sop, T. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2023

Threat of mining to African great apes

The rapid growth of clean energy technologies is driving a rising demand for critical minerals. In 2022 at the UN Biodiversity Conference (COP 15), seven major economies formed an alliance to enhance the sustainability of mining these essential decarbonization minerals. However, there is a scarcity of studies assessing the threat of mining to global biodiversity. By integrating a global mining dataset with ape density distribution estimates, we explored the potential negative impact of industrial mining on African great apes. Our findings reveal that up to one-third of Africas great ape population faces mining-related risks. This is especially pronounced in West Africa, where numerous mining areas overlap with fragmented ape habitats, often occurring in high-density ape regions. For 97% of mining areas, no ape survey data are available, underscoring the importance of increased accessibility to environmental data within the mining sector to facilitate research into the complex interactions between mining, climate, biodiversity and sustainability. TeaserMining for clean energy minerals could put one-third of Africas ape population at risk.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Predicting range shifts of African apes under global change scenarios

AimModelling African great ape distribution has until now focused on current or past conditions, whilst future scenarios remain scarcely explored. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we predicted changes in taxon-specific distribution under future scenarios of climate, land-use and human population changes. LocationSub-Saharan Africa MethodsWe compiled occurrence data on African ape populations from the IUCN A.P.E.S. database and extracted relevant human-, climate- and habitat-related predictors representing current and future (2050) conditions to predict taxon-specific distribution under a best- and a worst-case scenario, using ensemble forecasting. Given the large effect on model predictions, we further tested algorithm sensitivity by considering default and non-default modelling options. The latter included interactions between predictors and polynomial terms in correlative algorithms. ResultsThe future distributions of gorilla and bonobo populations are likely to be directly determined by climate-related variables. In contrast, future chimpanzee distribution is influenced mostly by anthropogenic variables. Both our modelling approaches produced similar model accuracy, although a slight difference in the magnitude of range change was found for Gorilla beringei beringei, G. gorilla diehli, and Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii. On average, a decline of 50% of the geographic range (non-default; or 55% default) is expected under the best scenario if no dispersal occurs (57% non-default or 58% default in worst scenario). However, new areas of suitable habitat are predicted to become available for most taxa if dispersal occurs (81% or 103% best, 93% or 91% worst, non-default and default, respectively), except for G. b. beringei. Main ConclusionsDespite the uncertainty in predicting the precise proportion of suitable habitat by 2050, both modelling approaches predict large range losses for all African apes. Thus, conservation planners urgently need to integrate land-use planning and simultaneously support conservation and climate change mitigation measures at all decision-making levels both in range countries and abroad.

ecology↗