Sonawane, K. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2026

FusedFCR: A Fused Forward Continuation-Ratio model for marker selection along cell-fate trajectories

Time-course single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) data collected across ordered stages provide population-level snapshots of differentiation, disease progression, and aging. Supervised pseudotime methods use observed stage labels to reconstruct continuous progression but generally do not identify marker genes associated with changes from one stage to the next. Unsupervised pseudotime-based marker selection methods infer latent trajectories directly from expression data and identify trajectory-associated genes, but do not explicitly link these associations to the observed stages. We propose FusedFCR, a regularized forward continuation-ratio model that represents cellular progression through a sequence of conditional transitions across ordered stages. FusedFCR combines a lasso penalty for gene selection with a fusion penalty that encourages similar effects across adjacent transitions while allowing transient and direction-changing associations. The resulting transition-specific coefficients support interpretable gene selection and a continuous pseudotime-like projection anchored to the observed developmental stages. In simulations, FusedFCR accurately recovers gene-effect trajectories and improved predictive performance relative to alternative methods. Applied to one mouse and three human datasets (mouse pancreatic beta-cells, human extravillous trophoblast, human induced pluripotent stem cell derived astrocytes, and human endometrial cells during the secretory phase), FusedFCR identifies biologically interpretable genes associated with distinct developmental transitions. Gene set enrichment analysis further reveals stage-specific pathway activity consistent with known developmental biology, while held-out stage-classification accuracy was competitive or superior across both datasets. Together, these results show that FusedFCR complements pseudotemporal ordering by identifying which molecular programs change and when those changes emerge along the developmental trajectory. An accompanying R package is available on GitHub.

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bioRxiv2025

GRASS-NB: Group-structured variable selection for spatial negative binomial data with applications to cancer registry and spatial omics

Spatially structured, overdispersed count data with high-dimensional predictors are increasingly observed across studies from population-level epidemiology to cellular-level spatial omics. Feature selection is critical to identify influential predictors, such as key risk factors or biomarkers. Few Bayesian studies have assessed negative binomial regression (NBR) models with standard variable selection priors, like the mixture spike-and-slab (SS) or continuous horseshoe (HS), but mostly under aspatial settings. Features often form groups; for instance, in population surveys, caloric intake and physical activity may fall under "Diet & Exercise", while cigarette use and smoking laws belong to "Smoking". We propose a flexible NBR model that accommodates spatial autocorrelation and introduces a novel group-structured prior by hybridizing SS and HS shrinkage. The models performance with different priors is evaluated in terms of specificity, precision, and computational cost under challenging scenarios, including "large p, small n" cases. We further apply the model to CDC state-level cancer data, comprising demographic, screening, and behavioral covariates, to identify key drivers and population-level risk factors, and to a melanoma spatial omics dataset for predictive modeling expression of gene. An efficient R package is provided on GitHub.

bioinformatics↗