Biology subjects

Soares, F. C.

Publications and source records attributed to Soares, F. C..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Two centuries of change in the traits and origins of non-native vertebrates

Globalization is redistributing species worldwide, yet whether the traits and origins of non-native fauna have changed through time remains unclear. We combined global first-record data for non-native species from 1800-2019 with harmonized information on body size, diet, habitat use, native range characteristics, and climatic niche characteristics for 1,910 non-native mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and freshwater fishes. Across most groups, species recorded earlier originated disproportionately from higher latitudes, occupied broader native ranges, and had wider thermal niches. More recent first records increasingly involve species from warmer, lower-latitude regions with smaller and more restricted native distributions. Body size also declined through time in several groups, whereas shifts in diet and habitat use were more taxon-specific. Temporal changes in introduction pathways partly explained these patterns: declines in deliberate release and production-related pathways, together with increases in pet and ornamental pathways, were associated with shifts toward smaller-bodied, lower-latitude, and more range-restricted species. These results indicate that the functional and biogeographic composition of non-native vertebrates has been progressively reshaped over the past two centuries, weakening the historical dominance of widespread temperate species and increasingly incorporating tropical and range-restricted fauna into global redistribution. Anticipating future biological invasions will therefore require attention not only to the number of species being transported, but also to how the characteristics and pathways of transported species are changing through time.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Data-driven forecasts of regional arrivals of non-native vertebrates worldwide

AimTo forecast near-future arrivals of non-native terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates at the regional level. LocationGlobal (geopolitical regions worldwide, including countries and main administrative divisions). MethodsWe compiled first regional record data and assembled functional and macroecological variables for 1,931 non-native vertebrate species. For each region, we identified recently arrived non-native species using retrospective windows of thirty and twenty years ending in 2015 (1986-2015; 1996-2015). We then fitted region-specific random-forest models classifying recently arrived species versus those not yet arrived using as predictors: (i) harmonised species traits (e.g., habitat, diet, body size and native-range attributes) and (ii) spread history, capturing time since first record elsewhere. Predictive performance was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, comparing full models with trait-only and spread-only variants. We also assessed relationships between predictive accuracy, predictor importance, and the geographic positioning and trade connectedness of regions. Finally, we predicted region-specific probabilities of arrival for species not yet recorded. ResultsForecasting accuracy was consistently high across regions and taxa, with AUC values above 0.9 in more than half of the focal regions. Full models substantially outperformed models using either predictor set alone, and spread-history-only models typically exceeded trait-only models. Relative importance of spread-history predictors declined with geographic distance to the focal region, whereas predictability was lower in highly trade-connected regions. Predicted near-future high-risk arrivals were dominated by birds and freshwater fishes and showed strong regional structuring. A small set of species ranked highly across many regions (e.g., birds: Phasianus colchicus, Acridotheres tristis, Amandava amandava, Colinus virginianus, Corvus splendens and Lonchura malacca; fishes: Coregonus peled and Oreochromis mossambicus; mammal: Oryctolagus cuniculus), suggesting substantial unrealised spread potential. Main conclusionsNear-future regional arrivals of non-native vertebrates are predictable from spread history and species traits. This enables scalable, updateable regional watchlists to support prevention, early detection and horizon scanning.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Combined effects of bird extinctions and introductions in oceanic islands: decreased functional diversity despite increased species richness

AimWe analyse the functional consequences of the changes in species composition resulting from extinctions and introductions on oceanic island bird assemblages. Specifically, we ask if introduced species have compensated the functional loss resulting from species extinctions. LocationSeventy-four oceanic islands (>100 km2) in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. Time periodLate Holocene. Major taxa studiedTerrestrial and freshwater bird species. MethodsWe compiled a species list per island (extinct and extant, native and introduced), and then compiled traits per species. We used single-trait analyses to assess the effects of past species extinctions and introductions on functional composition. Then, we used probabilistic hypervolumes in trait space to calculate functional richness and evenness of original versus present avifaunas of each island (and net change), and to estimate functional originality of extinct and introduced species. ResultsThe net effects of extinctions and introductions were: an increase in average species richness per island (alpha diversity), yet a decline in diversity across all islands (gamma diversity); an average increase in the prevalence of most functional traits (23 out of 35) yet an average decline functional richness and evenness, associated with the fact that extinct species were functionally more original (when compared to extant natives) than introduced species. Main conclusionsIntroduced species are on average offsetting (and even surpassing) the losses of extinct species per island in terms of species richness, and they are increasing the prevalence of most functional traits. However, they are not compensating the loss of functional richness due to extinctions. Current island bird assemblages are becoming functionally poorer, having lost original species and being composed of functionally more homogeneous species. This is likely to have cascading repercussions on the functioning of island ecosystems.

ecology↗