Sinervo, B. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2017

Natural selection on plasticity of thermal traits in a highly seasonal environment

This preprint has been reviewed and recommended by Peer Community In Evolutionary Biology (http://dx.doi.org/10.24072/pci.evolbiol.100048). For ectothermic species with broad geographical distributions, latitudinal/altitudinal variation in environmental temperatures (averages and extremes) are expected to shape the evolution of physiological tolerances and the acclimation capacity (i.e., degree of phenotypic plasticity) of natural populations. This can create geographical gradients of selection in which environments with greater thermal variability (e.g., seasonality) tend to favour individuals that maximize performance across a broader range of temperatures compared to more stable environments. Although thermal acclimation capacity plays a fundamental role in this context, it is unknown whether natural selection targets this trait in natural populations. Here we addressed such an important gap in our knowledge by measuring survival, through mark recapture integrated into an information-theoretic approach, as a function of the plasticity of critical thermal limits for activity, behavioural thermal preference and the thermal sensitivity of metabolism in the northernmost population of the four-eyed frog Pleurodema thaul. Overall, our results indicate that thermal acclimation in this population is not being targeted by directional selection, although there might be signals of selection on individual traits. According to the most supported models, survival decreased in individuals with less tolerance to cold when cold-acclimated (probably because daily low extremes are frequent during the cooler periods of the year) and increased with body size. However, in both cases, the directional selection estimates were non-significant.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2017

Towards a Global Framework for Estimating Acclimation and Thermal Breadth that Predicts Risk from Climate Change

Thermal breadth, the range of body temperatures over which organisms perform well, and thermal acclimation, the ability to alter optimal performance temperature and critical thermal maximum or minimum with changing temperatures, reflect the capacity of organisms to respond to temperature variability and are thus crucial traits for coping with climate change. Although there are theoretical frameworks for predicting thermal breadths and acclimation, the predictions of these models have not been tested across taxa, latitudes, body sizes, traits, habitats, and methodological factors. Here, we address this knowledge gap using simulation modeling and empirical analyses of >2,000 acclimation strengths from >500 species using four datasets of ectotherms. After accounting for important statistical interactions, covariates, and experimental artifacts, we reveal that i) acclimation rate scales positively with body size contributing to a negative association between body size and thermal breadth across species and ii) acclimation capacity increases with body size, seasonality, and latitude (to mid-latitudinal regions) and is regularly underestimated for most organisms. Contrary to suggestions that plasticity theory and empirical work on thermal acclimation are incongruent, these findings are consistent with theory on phenotypic plasticity. We further validated our framework by demonstrating that it could predict global extinction risk to amphibian biodiversity from climate change.

ecology↗