Sierra Cornejo, N. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2026

Global failure to track international biodiversity targets on islands

Islands harbour exceptional biodiversity but face severe threats, making their conservation crucial to achieving the goals and targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. We therefore evaluated whether existing indicators can track progress toward the Framework's 23 targets across islands worldwide. We screened 504 biodiversity and socioeconomic indicators from the official framework and other global initiatives, retaining 47 indicators. Historical time series from 1950 onward were modelled and projected to 2030. Indicators were also classified using the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) and Theory of Change (ToC). Results showed uneven progress: eight targets improved across all available indicators, while ten displayed conflicting trends. Nearly half of the indicators focused on policy and management responses showed improvement, whereas trends in biodiversity pressures and states were mixed. Critically, 15 of 23 targets (65%) lacked a suitable headline indicator, and five targets had no indicator at all. Notably, Targets 2 and 8, addressing ecosystem restoration and climate change impacts, respectively, lacked island indicators entirely. Over half of the available indicators (29 of 47; 62%) were reported at the national level, limiting their applicability to subnational island jurisdictions and potentially obscuring differences between mainland and island conditions. Most targets also lacked quantitative objectives, limiting evaluation of whether the rate of change is sufficient to meet the targets by 2030. We recommend island-level reporting, island-specific indicators, and quantitative benchmarks tailored to island needs.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Community-level plant functional strategies explain ecosystem carbon storage across a tropical elevational gradient

1. Plant functional traits play an important role in shaping plant ecological responses to environmental conditions and influencing ecosystem functioning. However, how whole-plant functional strategies manifest at the community level to influence aboveground and belowground carbon storage across environmental gradients remains poorly understood. 2. We measured aboveground and belowground carbon stocks and the variation in whole-plant (above- and belowground) functional strategies at the community level in twelve ecosystem types across a broad savanna-forest-alpine elevational gradient of climate and land use on Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. Using Structural Equation Models, we disentangled the direct and land use mediated influences of climate on carbon storage from indirect influences mediated by variation in plant functional strategies. 3. We found strong coordination between above- and belowground functional traits at the whole community level, which corresponded with functional strategies related to two major trade-offs: a slow-conservation to fast-resource acquisition axis represented by a spectrum from high leaf dry matter content to high fine root nitrogen concentration; and a size-related woody to grassy community axis represented by a spectrum spanning high canopy height to high specific root length. The slow-fast and woody-grassy strategy axes were primarily driven by precipitation and land-use intensity, respectively. 4. Both functional strategies mediated the effects of climate on carbon storage. The slow-fast strategy axis was strongly and positively associated with aboveground carbon stocks. Meanwhile, the woody-grassy strategy axis was negatively associated with both aboveground carbon stocks and soil organic carbon stocks. 5. Synthesis. We demonstrated that major plant functional strategies manifest at the community level along elevational gradients. These strategies also explain variation in carbon storage, although aboveground storage is mostly driven by trait effects, and belowground storage by direct effects of climate. Together, these results underscore the importance of incorporating functional community data into future analysis of climate change impacts on carbon storage, which would enhance our ability to predict potential shifts in ecosystem functioning.

ecology↗