Biology subjects

Shaw, J. D.

Publications and source records attributed to Shaw, J. D..

5 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2021

Using camera traps to determine occupancy and breeding in burrowing seabirds

Burrowing seabirds are important in commercial, ecological and conservation terms. Many populations are in flux owing to both negative and positive anthropogenic impacts, but their ecology makes measuring changes difficult. Reliably recording key metrics, the proportion of burrows with breeding pairs, and the success of breeding attempts, requires burrow-level information on occupancy. We investigated the use of camera traps positioned at burrow entrances for determining the number of breeding pairs in a sample to inform population estimates, and for recording breeding success. Linear Discriminant Analyses of time series activity patterns from camera traps successfully partitioned breeding and non-breeding burrows at different stages of the breeding season and had reasonable predictive ability to determine breeding status on a small test dataset. Compared with traditional techniques for determining burrow occupancy (e.g. manual burrow inspection and playback of conspecific calls at burrow entrances), camera traps can reduce uncertainty in estimated breeding success and potentially breeding status of burrows. Significant up-front investment is required in terms of equipment and human resources but for long-term studies camera traps can deliver advantages, particularly when unanticipated novel observations and the potential for calibrating traditional methods with cameras are factored in.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Uncertainty in population estimates: a meta-analysis for petrels

O_LIPopulation estimates are commonly generated and used in conservation science. All estimates carry inherent uncertainty, but little attention has been given to when and how this uncertainty limits their use. This requires an understanding of the specific purposes for which population estimates are intended, an assessment of the level of uncertainty each purpose can tolerate, and information on current uncertainty. C_LIO_LIWe conducted a review and meta-analysis for a widespread group of seabirds, the petrels, to better understand how and why population estimates are being used. Globally petrels are highly threatened, and aspects of their ecology make them difficult to survey, introducing high levels of uncertainty into population estimates. C_LIO_LIWe found that by far the most common intended use of population estimates was to inform status and trend assessments, while less common uses were trialling methods to improve estimates, and assessing threat impacts and conservation outcomes. C_LIO_LIThe mean coefficient of variation for published estimates was 0.17 (SD = 0.14), with no evidence that uncertainty has been reduced through time. As a consequence of this high uncertainty, when we simulated declines equivalent to thresholds commonly used to trigger management, only 5% of studies could detect significant differences between population estimates collected 10 years apart for populations declining at a rate of 30% over three generations. C_LIO_LIReporting of uncertainty was variable with no dispersion statistics reported with 38% of population estimates and most not reporting key underlying parameters: nest numbers/density and nest occupancy. We also found no correlation between population estimates and either island size, body size or species threat status--potential predictors of uncertainty. C_LIO_LISynthesis and applications--Key recommendations for managers are to be mindful of uncertainty in past population estimates if aiming to collect contemporary estimates for comparison, to report uncertainty clearly for new estimates, and to give careful consideration to whether a proposed estimate is likely to achieve the requisite level of certainty for the investment in its generation to be warranted. We recommend a practitioner-based Value of Information assessment to confirm where there is value in reducing uncertainty. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Detecting seabird responses to invasive species eradication

Maximising survey efficiency can help reduce the trade-off between spending limited conservation resources on evaluating performance of past interventions and directing those resources towards future interventions. Seabird responses to island eradications are often poorly evaluated owing to financial, logistical and methodological challenges associated with remote field work and species ecology. We surveyed an assemblage of threatened seabirds following the worlds largest island eradication of multiple invasive species, testing multiple survey designs and outputs. We compared the outcomes of two important choices made during survey design: 1) whether to use unbiased or targeted surveys; and 2) implementing design-based or model-based analyses. An unbiased whole-island stratified randomised survey design performed well in terms of confidence in the final population estimates for widespread species, but poorly for localised recolonising species. For widespread species, model-based analyses resulted in slightly lower population estimates with narrower confidence intervals than traditional design-based approaches but failed to capture the realised niches of recolonising species, resulting in population estimates three orders of magnitude higher than current best estimates. We conclude that a multi-method approach to survey design best captures the size and distribution of recovering populations when the study system is ecologically diverse--importantly our results suggest there is no single strategy for efficient surveys of diverse seabird communities following large island invasive species eradications.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Differing ecological responses of seabirds to invasive species eradication

The impact of invasive species at seabird breeding islands causes a breakdown of important ecological functions such as prey consumption and nutrient transfer, and elevates extinction risk in impacted taxa. Eradicating invasive species from islands can result in substantial short-term recovery of seabird populations and consequently the prevalence of eradication programs as conservation tools is increasing. However, as the scale and complexity of eradications has increased, quantitative data on rates of recovery, especially from larger islands, remain limited. Furthermore, the mechanisms that govern recovery are poorly understood, limiting our ability to forecast outcomes and therefore prioritise effectively. Here, using the worlds largest multi-species vertebrate eradication from Macquarie Island as a case study, we show how responses to invasive species and their eradication differ. Species with broad realised niches whose breeding phenology minimizes time on land and corresponds with summer resource abundance remained extant alongside invasive species while more habitat-specific species present in winter were extirpated. Following eradication, immigration and flexibility to colonise under-utilised optimal habitat appears to be boosting population growth in recolonising species, whereas established populations appear to be tethered to refugial habitats by the influence of philopatry, and their recovery is slower as a result. Unpicking these differential responses and the mechanisms behind them provides valuable information to help predict responses in other systems as future eradications are planned.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Antarctica's wilderness has declined to the exclusion of biodiversity

Recent assessments of the biodiversity value of Earth's dwindling wilderness areas have emphasized the whole of Antarctica as a crucial wilderness in need of urgent protection. Whole-of-continent designations for Antarctic conservation remain controversial, however, because of widespread human impacts and frequently used provisions in Antarctic law for the designation of specially protected areas to conserve wilderness values, species and ecosystems. Here we investigate the extent to which Antarctica's wilderness encompasses its biodiversity. We assembled a comprehensive record of human activity on the continent (~ 2.7 million localities) and used it to identify unvisited areas [≥] 10 000 km2 (i.e. Antarctica's wilderness areas) and their representation of biodiversity. We show that, at best, 7 770 000 km2 of wilderness remains, covering 56.9% of the continent's surface area, however it captures few important biodiversity features. Important Bird Areas, ice-free Antarctic Conservation Biogeographic Regions crucial for biodiversity and areas with verified biodiversity records are largely excluded. Our results demonstrate that Antarcticas wilderness has already declined to the exclusion of much of its biodiversity. But that on a continent set aside as a natural reserve, increased regulation of human activity and urgent expansion of the Antarctic specially protected area network could feasibly reverse this trend.

ecology↗