Serra-Diaz, J. M. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2020

Ecological niche models as hypothesis generators of functional genetic differentiation and potential local adaptation in a Mediterranean alpine ecosystem

Geographically disparate populations within a species range may show important differences including variation in ecological, demographic, genetic and phenotypic characteristics. Based on the Center-Periphery Hypothesis, it is often assumed that environmental conditions are optimal in the geographic center of the range and stressful or suboptimal at the periphery, implying ecological marginality is concordant with geographic periphery. But this assumption has been challenged as geographical and ecological gradients are not necessarily concordant. The conservation value of populations inhabiting environmentally marginal areas is still under debate and is closely related with their evolutionary potential. Strong selective pressures caused by stressful conditions may generate novel adaptations in marginal areas, conferring these populations distinct evolutionary potential. But populations inhabiting marginal areas may also show reductions in neutral and adaptive genetic diversity via drift and inbreeding. In this work we explore the potential of ecological niche models (ENMs) to identify environmentally optimal and marginal areas, as well as the principal putative selective pressures likely to act. To do so, we built a carefully parameterized ENM of Silene ciliata, a dominant plant species of Mediterranean alpine habitats. Complementarily, we selected wild populations inhabiting contrasting environmental conditions and carried out common garden experiments to detect genetic differentiation among populations associated with functional traits. With the resulting information, we tested whether environmentally marginal populations defined by the ENM had genetically differentiated phenotypes that are potentially adaptive and, thus, of conservation value. We found genetically based phenotypic differentiation of phenological traits between populations inhabiting areas identified by the ENM as marginal and optimal, as well as between populations with different habitat suitability values. Results supported ENMs as powerful tools for determining environmental marginality and identifying selection pressures, and thus also as hypothesis generators for divergent selection. Furthermore, genetically based phenotypic differentiation found underlines the potential adaptive value of populations inhabiting marginal areas. The approach developed here provides a theoretically justified and practical way to study adaptive processes and provide insights about the conservation value of marginal populations.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2017

Disequilibrium of fire-prone forests sets the stage for a rapid decline in conifer dominance during the 21st century

As trees are long-lived organisms, the impacts of climate change on forest communities may not be apparent on the time scale of years to decades. While lagged responses to environmental change are common in forested systems, potential for abrupt transitions under climate change may occur in environments where alternative vegetation states are influenced by disturbances, such as fire. The Klamath mountains (northern California and southwest Oregon, USA) are currently dominated by carbon rich and hyper-diverse temperate conifer forests, but climate change could disrupt the mechanisms promoting forest stability- regeneration and fire tolerance-- via shifts in the fire regime in conjunction with lower fitness of conifers under a hotter climate. Understanding how this landscape will respond to near-term climate change (before 2100) is critical for predicting potential climate change feedbacks and to developing sound forest conservation and management plans. Using a landscape simulation model, we estimate that 1/3 of the Klamath could transition from conifer forest to shrub/hardwood chaparral, triggered by an enhanced fire activity coupled with lower post-fire conifer establishment. Such shifts were more prevalent under higher climate change forcing (RCP 8.5) but were also simulated under the climate of 1950-2000, reflecting the joint influences of early warming trends and historical forest legacies. Our results demonstrate that there is a large potential for loss of conifer forest dominance--and associated carbon stocks and biodiversity- in the Klamath before the end of the century, and that some losses would likely occur even without the influence of climate change. Thus, in the Klamath and other forested landscapes subject to similar feedback dynamics, major ecosystem shifts should be expected when climate change disrupts key stabilizing feedbacks that maintain the dominance of long-lived, slowly regenerating trees.

ecology↗