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Scoglio, C. M.

Publications and source records attributed to Scoglio, C. M..

2 recordsLinked to original sources
bioRxiv2018

A spatio-temporal individual-based network framework for West Nile virus in the USA: spreading pattern of West Nile virus

West Nile virus (WNV)--a mosquito-borne arbovirus-- entered the USA through New York City in 1999 and spread to the contiguous USA within three years while transitioning from epidemic outbreaks to endemic transmission. The virus is transmitted by vector competent mosquitoes and maintained in the avian populations. WNV spatial distribution is mainly determined by the movement of residential and migratory avian populations. We developed an individual-level heterogeneous network framework across the USA with the goal of understanding the long-range spatial distribution of WNV. To this end, we proposed three distance dispersal kernels model: 1) exponential--short-range dispersal, 2) power-law--long-range dispersal in all directions, and 3) power-law biased by flyway direction--long-range dispersal only along established migratory routes. To select the appropriate dispersal kernel we used the human case data and adopted a model selection framework based on approximate Bayesian computation with sequential Monte Carlo sampling (ABC-SMC). From estimated parameters, we find that the power-law biased by flyway direction kernel is the best kernel to fit WNV human case data, supporting the hypothesis of long-range WNV transmission is mainly along the migratory bird flyways. Through extensive simulation from 2014 to 2016, we proposed and tested hypothetical mitigation strategies and found that mosquito population reduction in the infected states and neighboring states is potentially cost-effective.\n\nAuthor summaryThe underlying pattern of West Nile virus (WNV) geographic spread across the United States is not completely clear, which is a necessary step for continental or state level mitigation strategies to reduce WNV transmission. We report a network model that explains the geographic spread of WNV in the United States. West Nile virus is a mosquito-borne pathogen that infects many avian species with different movement ranges. From our research, we found that migration patterns and routes play an essential role in the WNV spatial distribution. The virus spreads in all directions at short distances because of local birds and short-distance migratory birds. However, the virus also disperses long distances along the avian migratory routes. Our model is designed to be flexible and therefore can be used to explore spreading patterns of other infectious diseases in other geographic locations.

epidemiology↗
bioRxiv2018

Individual-based network model for Rift Valley Fever in Kabale District, Uganda, to guide mitigation measures: A One Health Model

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic disease which causes significant morbidity and mortality among ungulate livestock and humans in endemic regions. In the major RVF epizootic regions of East Africa, the causative agent of the disease, Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV), is primarily transmitted by multiple mosquito species in Aedes, Culex, and Mansonia genera during both epizootic and enzootic periods in a complex transmission cycle largely driven by the environment. However, recent RVFV activity in Uganda demonstrated that RVFV could also spread into new regions through livestock movements, and underscored the need to develop effective mitigation strategies to reduce transmission and prevent spread among cattle operations. We simulated RVFV transmission among cattle in different sub counties of Kabale District in Uganda using real world livestock data in a network-based model. This model considered livestock as spatially explicit factors in different sub-counties subjected to specific vector mosquito and environmental factors, and was configured to investigate and quantitatively evaluate the relative impacts of mosquito control, livestock movement regulations, and diversity in cattle populations on the spread of the RVF epizootic. We concluded that cattle movement should be restricted during periods of high vector mosquito abundance to control the epizootic spreading among sub-counties. On the other hand we found that mosquito control would only be sufficient to control the epizootic when mosquito abundance was low. Importantly, simulation results also showed that cattle populations with a higher diversity with regard to indigenous combined with exotic breeds led to reduced numbers of infected cattle compared to more homogenous cattle populations.

epidemiology↗