Biology subjects

Schiffer, J. T.

Publications and source records attributed to Schiffer, J. T..

12 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Transmission of mutated SARS-CoV-2 variants is favored by relatively prolonged infections due to delayed immunity

SARS-CoV-2 evolution enhanced viral fitness and immune evasion, extending the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting in millions of excess deaths. Viral diversity is generated within infected individuals, yet the timing and interplay of viral and immunological forces that drive transmissible evolution are incompletely understood. We developed a multi-scale within host phylodynamic (WiPhy) model of SARS-CoV-2 infection which couples viral replication, innate and acquired immune responses, and viral mutation. We then validated the model against quantitative viral and phylodynamic metrics. Model output predicts that typical acute infections rapidly generate genetic diversity due to accumulation of minor variants which in most cases do not achieve sufficient concentrations for transmission. Delayed innate immune responses correlate with higher peak viral load and diversification, allowing higher transmission risk of the founder virus or with a novel variant that is equally or less fit. In contrast, the risk of transmitting a fitter variant is highest during the ~10% of infections in which viral loads remain sufficiently high for transmission after 10-14 days. In these cases, non-sustained innate and/or weak acquired immune responses allow sufficient time for selection of a variant with one or more fitness enhancing non-synonymous mutations. Across a simulated cohort of ~1500 individuals, 5% of transmission risk came from variants with enhanced fitness from nonsynonymous mutations, and 13% of simulated infections accounted for 90% of fitter variant transmission risk. Our results highlight how the timing and interplay of viral and immunological forces within a host create bottlenecks that severely limit between host evolution.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2026

Modeling quantifies in vivo neutralization, Fc-mediated killing, and resistance in human clinical trials of five anti-HIV broadly neutralizing antibodies

Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) are a promising intervention for HIV prevention, therapy, and cure. bnAb optimization requires precise quantification of in vivo functions, many of which cannot be directly measured in humans. We therefore performed a mathematical modeling meta-analysis which integrated four clinical trials and reproduced serial bnAb concentrations, viral loads, and bnAb sensitivities (IC50) in 43 viremic trial participants who received an infusion of VRC01, VRC01LS, VRC07-523LS, 3BNC117 or 10-1074. We compared >300 mathematical models for their ability to recapitulate multi-strain HIV dynamics following bnAb infusion. For each bnAb, our best model identified a scaling factor of 36-462 to project in vivo activity from in vitro IC50, quantified Fc-mediated infected cell killing in humans over time, and projected the timing of bnAb-resistant strain emergence. Using this holistic profile, VRC07-523-LS was generally optimal.

immunology↗

bioRxiv2025

Plasma nirmatrelvir and molnupiravir concentrations required for inhibition of SARS CoV-2 replication differ between rhesus macaques and humans

Early during the COVID-19 pandemic, non-human primate (NHP) infection models emerged as highly useful tools for preclinical screening of antiviral drugs. However, it is uncertain whether NHP models can be used to precisely inform optimal dosing in humans. We previously established and validated mathematical models which were fit to SARS-CoV-2 viral loads from human clinical trials. These models identified that plasma drug concentrations required to inhibit viral replication by 50% in humans (in vivo EC50) differ substantially from in vitro EC50 estimates in cell culture systems. Here we apply models to sequential viral load data from SARS-CoV-2 infected rhesus macaques (RM) that were untreated or treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, molnupiravir, or both drugs. We identify that equivalent plasma drug concentrations correspond to greater antiviral potency in lungs compared to nasal passages for nirmatrelvir and molnupiravir. Average nirmatrelvir antiviral efficacy in RM (30% in nasal passages and 46% in lungs) was estimated to be less than in humans (82%) due to shorter plasma drug half-life. Molnupiravir efficacy in RM (95% in nasal and 99% in lungs) is estimated to be similar to efficacy in humans against omicron variants. Our model estimates that 10-fold higher plasma nirmatelvir concentrations are needed in humans versus RM to achieve 50% reduction in viral replication, whereas 20-fold lower plasma molnupiravir concentrations are needed. Our results suggest that dose optimization in humans based on modeling of NHP viral loads is limited by drug-specific differences in pharmacokinetic, pharmacodynamic and virologic profiles, and that data from human phase 1 and 2 trials is better suited for this task.

systems biology↗

bioRxiv2025

Intracellular and extracellular dynamics of herpes simplex virus 1 DNA and infectious particles in epithelial and neuronal cells

Herpes simplex virus 1 (HSV-1) infection of epithelial cells is lytic, while infection of neurons typically results in long-term latency. However, the rates at which HSV-1 replicates and spreads in epithelial cells versus neurons under low and high multiplicity of infection (MOI) conditions remain undefined. Identifying these rates requires the application of mathematical models to carefully designed viral kinetic experiments. It is also critical to differentiate the dynamics of infectious viral particles versus viral DNA, as both quantities are routinely measured in in vitro experiments and human studies using plaque assays and polymerase chain reactions, respectively. Here, we developed mechanistic mathematical models to describe HSV-1 dynamics after infection of epithelial Vero cells and neuronal N2A cells, at high (3) and low (0.01) MOI. Our model recapitulates the dynamics of cell-free and cell-associated viral DNA and plaque-forming units (PFU). In epithelial cells, the model describes a pre-productive eclipse phase with a mean duration of 10.9 and 12.8 hours prior to HSV DNA replication and PFU production, respectively. Cells exited the eclipse phase as early and late as 2.5 and 32 hours, respectively. Infected cells produced a single PFU for every 224 HSV DNA genomes. PFU egressed at a constant rate, whereas the HSV DNA egress rate increased over time, before saturating at a 15 times higher rate. Under low relative to high MOI conditions, Vero cells spent 7 hours longer in the eclipse phase, had a 12-hour delay prior to egress, and had a longer mean duration of productive infection (14 versus 3.5-hour half-life). Secondary epithelial cell infection in low MOI experiments was overwhelmingly due to cell-to-cell viral spread and originated from a small number of early-producer cells. Neuronal cells produced viruses at a 5-fold lower rate and had a longer (mean: 42 hours) and more variable eclipse phase, with some neurons remaining in eclipse for more than a week. Our results highlighted large differences in HSV egress rates, as well as infected cell eclipse phase duration and death rates, in epithelial cells versus neurons during low and high MOI infection. The observed viral dynamics in neurons reflect a balance between active replication and latency.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2021

Tracking SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Mutations in the United States (2020/01 - 2021/03) Using a Statistical Learning Strategy

The emergence and establishment of SARS-CoV-2 variants of interest (VOI) and variants of concern (VOC) highlight the importance of genomic surveillance. We propose a statistical learning strategy (SLS) for identifying and spatiotemporally tracking potentially relevant Spike protein mutations. We analyzed 167,893 Spike protein sequences from US COVID-19 cases (excluding 21,391 sequences from VOI/VOC strains) deposited at GISAID from January 19, 2020 to March 15, 2021. Alignment against the reference Spike protein sequence led to the identification of viral residue variants (VRVs), i.e., residues harboring a substitution compared to the reference strain. Next, generalized additive models were applied to model VRV temporal dynamics, to identify VRVs with significant and substantial dynamics (false discovery rate q-value <0.01; maximum VRV proportion > 10% on at least one day). Unsupervised learning was then applied to hierarchically organize VRVs by spatiotemporal patterns and identify VRV-haplotypes. Finally, homology modelling was performed to gain insight into potential impact of VRVs on Spike protein structure. We identified 90 VRVs, 71 of which have not previously been observed in a VOI/VOC, and 35 of which have emerged recently and are durably present. Our analysis identifies 17 VRVs [~]91 days earlier than their first corresponding VOI/VOC publication. Unsupervised learning revealed eight VRV-haplotypes of 4 VRVs or more, suggesting two emerging strains (B1.1.222 and B.1.234). Structural modeling supported potential functional impact of the D1118H and L452R mutations. The SLS approach equally monitors all Spike residues over time, independently of existing phylogenic classifications, and is complementary to existing genomic surveillance methods.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2020

Mathematical modeling explains differential SARS CoV-2 kinetics in lung and nasal passages in remdesivir treated rhesus macaques

Remdesivir was recently demonstrated to decrease recovery time in hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. In rhesus macaques, early initiation of remdesivir therapy prevented pneumonia and lowered viral loads in the lung, but viral loads increased in the nasal passages five days after therapy. We developed mathematical models to explain these results. We identified that 1) drug potency is slightly higher in nasal passages than in lungs, 2) viral load decrease in lungs relative to nasal passages during therapy because of infection-dependent generation of refractory cells in the lung, 3) incomplete drug potency in the lung that decreases viral loads even slightly may allow substantially less lung damage, and 4) increases in nasal viral load may occur due to a slight blunting of peak viral load and subsequent decrease of the intensity of the innate immune response, as well as a lack of refractory cells. We also hypothesize that direct inoculation of the trachea in rhesus macaques may not recapitulate natural infection as lung damage occurs more abruptly in this model than in human infection. We demonstrate with sensitivity analysis that a drug with higher potency could completely suppress viral replication and lower viral loads abruptly in the nasal passages as well as the lung. One Sentence SummaryWe developed a mathematical model to explain why remdesivir has a greater antiviral effect on SARS CoV-2 in lung versus nasal passages in rhesus macaques.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2019

Thresholds for post-rebound viral control after CCR5 gene-edited autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation

Autologous, CCR5 gene-edited hematopoietic stem and progenitor cell (HSPC) transplantation is a promising strategy for achieving HIV remission. However, only a fraction of HSPCs can be edited ex vivo to provide protection against infection prior to autologous transplantation. The optimal transplantation conditions for achieving viral control in the absence of suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART) are still unknown. We analyzed data from SHIV-1157ipd3N4-infected juvenile pig-tailed macaques that underwent autologous HSPC transplantation with and without CCR5 gene editing. We developed a mathematical model that recapitulates reconstitution of T cell subset counts and SHIV plasma viral loads in control and transplanted macaques. The model predicts that viral control can be obtained following ART treatment interruption (ATI) when: 1) levels of transplanted HSPCs are at least 10-fold higher than residual endogenous HSPCs after total body irradiation and 2) the fraction of protected HSPCs in the transplant achieves a threshold (73%-90%) sufficient to overcome transplantation-dependent loss of SHIV immunity. Under these conditions, if ATI is withheld until transplanted gene-modified cells engraft and reconstitute to a steady state, then spontaneous viral control is projected to occur immediately. Our results support strategies that 1) increase stem cell dose, 2) enhance potency of conditioning regimen, 3) elevate fraction of gene modified SHIV-resistant cells, 4) extend periods between HSPC transplantation and ATI with tracking of CD4+CCR5- cell recovery and / or 5) augment anti-SHIV immunity to achieve sustained SHIV remission. One Sentence SummaryAutologous transplantation of {Delta}CCR5 HSPCs may induce post-ATI SHIV control when the gene-edited cell dose is sufficient to overcome SHIV immunity loss.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2019

Complementing 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing with estimates of total bacterial load to infer absolute species concentrations in the vaginal microbiome

Whereas 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing quantifies relative abundances of bacterial taxa, variation in total bacterial load between samples restricts its ability to reflect absolute concentration of individual species. Quantitative PCR (qPCR) can quantify individual species, but it is not practical to develop a suite of qPCR assays for every bacterium present in a diverse sample. We analyzed 1320 samples from 20 women with a history of frequent bacterial vaginosis, who self-collected vaginal swabs daily over 60 days. We inferred bacterial concentrations by taking the product of species relative abundance (assessed by 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing) and total bacterial load (measured by broad-range 16S rRNA gene qPCR). Log10-converted inferred concentrations correlated with targeted qPCR (r = 0. 935, p<2.2e-16) for seven key bacterial species. The mean inferred concentration error varied across bacteria, with rarer bacterial vaginosis-associated bacteria associated with larger errors. 92% of errors >0.5 log10 occurred when relative abundance was <10%. Many errors occurred during early bacterial expansion or late contraction. When relative abundance of a species is >10%, inferred concentrations are reliable proxies for targeted qPCR. However, targeted qPCR is required to capture bacteria at low relative abundance, particularly with BV-associated bacteria during the early onset of bacterial vaginosis.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2019

Increased oral Epstein-Barr virus shedding with HIV-1 co-infection is due to a combination of B cell activation and impaired cellular immune control

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection is transmitted by saliva and is a major cause of cancer in people living with HIV/AIDS as well as in the general population. To better understand the determinants of oral EBV shedding we evaluated the frequency and quantity of detectable EBV in the saliva in a prospective cohort study of 85 adults in Uganda, half of whom were co-infected with HIV-1. Participants were not receiving antiviral medications, and those with HIV-1 co-infection had a CD4+ T cell count >200 cells/mm3. Daily, self-collected oral swabs were collected over a 4-week period. Compared with HIV-1 uninfected participants, co-infected participants had an increased frequency of oral EBV shedding (IRR=1.27, 95% CI=1.10-1.47). To explain why EBV oral shedding is greater in HIV-1 co-infected participants, we developed a stochastic, mechanistic mathematical model that describes the dynamics of EBV, infected cells, and antiviral cellular immune responses within the tonsillar epithelium, and examined parameter-specific differences between individuals of different HIV-1 infection statuses. We fit the model to our observational data using Approximate Bayesian Computation. After fitting, model simulations showed high fidelity to daily oral shedding time-courses and matched key summary statistics. Examination of the model revealed that higher EBV loads in saliva are driven by B cell activation causing EBV lytic replication in the tonsils, in combination with a less effective EBV-specific cellular immune response. Thus, both these factors contribute to higher and more frequent EBV shedding in HIV-1 co-infected individuals compared to HIV-1 uninfected individuals. These conclusions were further validated by modelling daily oral EBV shedding in a 26-participant North American cohort. Our results provide insights into the determinants of EBV shedding and implicate B cell activation to be a potential therapeutic target to reduce EBV replication in HIV-1 co-infected individuals at high risk for EBV-related malignancies.\n\nAuthor summaryEpstein-Barr virus (EBV) is a ubiquitous infection worldwide. Infection with EBV is associated with the development of several kinds of cancer, including B cell lymphoma and nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Rates of EBV replication and disease are higher in individuals who are also infected with HIV-1. HIV-1 infection is associated with increased B cell activation, which is known to induce EBV reactivation, as well as immunodeficiency resulting from loss of T cells. However, whether these factors contribute to higher rates of EBV replication during co-infection, and by how much, was unknown. We analysed oral EBV shedding data in a cohort of adults from Uganda that were chronically infected with EBV. We found that participants that were HIV-1 infected were much more likely to have detectable quantities of EBV in their saliva. Also, when detected, the quantity of EBV present in the saliva was usually higher in HIV-1 infected participants. To better understand these findings, we developed a mathematical model to describe the dynamics of EBV, EBV-infected cells, and the cellular immune response within the tonsils. By rigorously matching our model to our participant data, we determined that high EBV loads in saliva are caused by high rates of infected B cell activation, as well as worse cellular immune control of EBV infection. These results provide an explanation of the impact of HIV-1 on EBV infection. Further, they suggest that strategies that suppress B cell activation may prevent EBV-related malignancy in people who are also infected with HIV-1.

pathology↗

bioRxiv2018

Viral diversity is an obligate consideration in CRISPR/Cas9 designs for HIV cure

RNA-guided CRISPR/Cas9 systems can be designed to mutate or excise the integrated HIV genome from latently infected cells and have therefore been proposed as a curative approach for HIV. However, most studies to date have focused on molecular clones with ideal target site recognition and do not account for target site variability observed within and between patients. For clinical success and broad applicability, guide RNA (gRNA) selection must account for circulating strain diversity and incorporate the within-host diversity of HIV. To address this, we identified a set of gRNAs targeting HIV LTR, gag and pol using publicly available sequences for these genes. We ranked gRNAs according to global conservation across HIV-1 group M and within subtypes A-C. By considering paired and triplet combinations of gRNAs, we found triplet sets of target sites such that at least one of the gRNAs in the set was present in over 98% of all globally-available sequences. We then selected 59 gRNAs from our list of highly-conserved LTR target sites and evaluated in vitro activity using a loss-of-function LTR-GFP fusion reporter. We achieved efficient GFP knockdown with multiple gRNAs and found clustering of highly active gRNA target sites near the middle of the LTR. Using published deep-sequence data from HIV-infected patients, we found that globally conserved sites also had greater within-host target conservation. Lastly, we developed a mathematical model based on varying distributions of within-host HIV sequence diversity and enzyme efficacy. We used the model to estimate the number of doses required to deplete the latent reservoir and achieve functional cure thresholds. Our modeling results highlight the importance of within-host target site conservation. While increased doses may overcome low target cleavage efficiency, inadequate targeting of rare strains is predicted to lead to rebound upon ART cessation even with many doses.\n\nAuthor summaryThe field of genome engineering has exploded over the last decade with the discovery of targeted endonucleases such as CRISPR/Cas9. Endonucleases are now being used to develop a wide range of therapeutics and their use has expanded into antiviral therapy against latent viral infections like HIV. The idea is to induce mutations in latent viral genomes that will render them replication-incompetent, thereby producing a functional cure. Although a great deal of progress has been made, most studies to date have relied on molecular clones that represent \"ideal\" targets. For clinical success and broad applicability, these therapies need to account for viral genetic diversity within and between individuals. Our paper examines the impact of HIV diversity on CRISPR-based cure strategies to determine the predictors of future clinical success. We performed an exhaustive and detailed computational analysis to identify optimal CRISPR target sites, taking into consideration both within-host and global viral diversity. We coupled this with laboratory testing of highly-conserved guides and compared measured activity to predicted results. Finally, we developed a mathematical model to predict the impact of enzyme activity and viral diversity on the number of doses of a CRISPR-based therapy needed to achieve a functional cure of HIV.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2017

HIV persistence during antiviral therapy occurs due to cellular proliferation

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) suppresses viral replication in people living with HIV. Yet, infected cells persist for decades on ART and viremia returns if ART is stopped. Persistence has been attributed to viral replication in an ART sanctuary and long-lived and1or proliferating latently infected cells. Using ecological methods and existing data, we infer that >99% of infected cells are members of clonal populations after one year of ART. We reconcile our results with observations from the first months of ART, demonstrating mathematically how a \"fossil record\" of historic HIV replication permits observed viral evolution even while most new infected cells arise from proliferation. Together, our results imply cellular proliferation generates a majority of infected cells during ART. Therefore, reducing proliferation could decrease the size of the HIV reservoir and help achieve a functional cure.

immunology↗

bioRxiv2017

Myeloablation-associated deletion of ORF4 in a human coronavirus 229E infection

We describe metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) of a human coronavirus 229E from a patient with AML and persistent upper respiratory symptoms, who underwent hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). mNGS revealed a 548-nucleotide deletion, which comprised the near entirety of the ORF4 gene, and no minor allele variants were detected to suggest a mixed infection. As part of her pre-HCT conditioning regimen, the patient received myeloablative treatment with cyclophosphamide and 12 Gy total body irradiation. Iterative sequencing and RT-PCR confirmation of 4 respiratory samples over the 4-week peritransplant period revealed that the pre-conditioning strain contained an intact ORF4 gene, while the deletion strain appeared just after conditioning and persisted over a 2.5-week period. This sequence represents one of the largest genomic deletions detected in a human RNA virus and describes large-scale viral mutation associated with myeloablation for HCT.

genomics↗