Biology subjects

Satake, A.

Publications and source records attributed to Satake, A..

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Optimal Strategies for Signal Sending and Perception in Volatile-mediated Within-Plant Signaling against Herbivory

Herbivore-induced plant volatiles (HIPVs) play a critical role in inducible plant defense as information-bearing airborne signals. Released from damaged tissues, HIPVs induce defense responses in undamaged parts of the plant, thereby reducing the risk of subsequent herbivore attack. Although both emission and perception are fundamental components of HIPV-mediated signaling, the co-evolutionary dynamics of these traits under herbivore-driven selection remain poorly understood. Here, we develop a mathematical model of within-plant signaling that explicitly incorporates both inducible signal emission and perception as evolving traits. Using the model, we derived the optimal level of HIPV signal emission and signal perception under successive herbivore attacks. Our results show that the strategy with both signal emission and signal perception, which underlies HIPV-mediated signaling, is favored only under intermediate levels of herbivory. Within this range, increasing herbivory frequency drives the joint evolution of reduced signal emission and enhanced sensitivity to released signal. Furthermore, extending the model to include perception-independent functions of HIPVs, such as the attraction of natural enemies and the deterrence of herbivores, expands the range of conditions under which HIPV-mediated signaling is favored. At the same time, it also allows the emergence of emission-only strategies lacking signal perception, suggesting the potential decoupling of the co-evolution of emission and responsiveness. These findings provide a theoretical framework for understanding how emission and perception jointly shape the evolution of volatile-mediated signaling systems in plants.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Circadian Timekeeping in the Tropics: Rhythmic Transcriptome and Diurnal Regulatory Networks in Rubroshorea leprosula

Circadian rhythms allow plants to regulate internal processes to align with daily rhythms in the environment. Comparing circadian clocks across environments is essential because latitude-dependent variation in light and temperature imposes distinct selection pressures that shape the evolution and function of circadian timing systems. However, circadian clock studies have largely focused on temperate and subtropical species, leaving transcriptional circadian networks in tropical plants under relatively constant environments poorly understood. We report the first comprehensive circadian transcriptome of the ecologically important dipterocarp species Rubroshorea leprosula, a dominant species in tropical rainforests in Southeast Asia. One sapling was sampled every four hours for 48 hours under constant darkness and used for transcriptomic analyses. Only 283 of 20,748 expressed genes ([~]1.3%) exhibited significant circadian oscillations, with periods strongly concentrated between 23 and 25 h. Hierarchical clustering revealed four temporal clusters with alternate phases of expression and functional specialisation; morning clusters in processes related to light and chloroplast, midday clusters in hormone and signalling mechanisms, afternoon clusters in mitochondrial and peptide biosynthesis functions, and night clusters in protein quality control and autophagy. Comparative analysis identified clear orthologs for all major Arabidopsis circadian clock components (LHY, CCA1, PRRs, TOC1, ELF4, LUX, GI, ZTL, RVEs), with conserved synteny to Parashorea chinensis, a close relative of R. leprosula. Time-lagged cross-correlation (TLCC) network reconstruction identified a characteristic circadian topological similarity with Arabidopsis, including coupled morning and evening feedback loops and paralog expansion that maintained overall structure. Peak expression timing of these core clock genes in the tropical tree was largely consistent with that observed in Arabidopsis thaliana. In contrast to this conserved phase relationship, Rubroshorea orthologs exhibited reduced amplitudes and lower coefficients of variation in their circadian oscillations, suggesting diminished robustness of rhythmic gene expression. These findings demonstrate a conserved but regulated circadian mechanism in R. leprosula, in preparation for adaptation to tropical rainforests stable light and temperature regimes. This study lays the molecular foundation for circadian regulation in dipterocarps and offers a system for integrating rhythmic gene expression to ecological function and forest productivity in tropical communities.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2026

Inferring somatic mutation dynamics from genomic variation across branches within long-lived tropical trees

Trees accumulate somatic mutations throughout their long lifespan, resulting in genetic mosaicism among branches. While recent genomic studies quantified these mutations, they were largely limited to describing static patterns of variation. In this study, we developed a mathematical model to infer the dynamic processes of somatic mutation accumulation from snapshot genomic data obtained from four tropical trees (Dipterocarpaceae), which dominate tropical rain forests in Southeast Asia. Our model focus on genetic differences between shoot apical meristems (SAMs) at branch tips and explicitly incorporate stem cell dynamics within SAMs during shoot elongation and branching, enabling us to quantify somatic genetic drift arising from stem cell lineage replacement. By comparing model predictions with empirical data from Dipterocarpaceae trees, we estimated key parameters governing stem cell dynamics and somatic mutation rates. Our results indicate that both shoot elongation and branching involve replacement of stem cell lineages, leading to a moderate degree of somatic genetic drift. Accounting for stem cell dynamics resulted in slightly lower mutation rate estimates than previous approaches that ignored these processes. Using the estimated parameters, we further performed stochastic simulations to predict patterns of somatic mutations, including features not directly observed in the sampled trees, such as occasional deviations of somatic mutation phylogenies from physical architecture. Together, our modeling framework provides insights into how genetic mosaicism is shaped within tropical trees and reveals the stem cell dynamics underlying their long-term growth and accumulation of somatic mutations. (236 words) Highlights- We built mathematical models to predict the genetic differences between branch tips by somatic mutations. - The model considers the varying dynamics of stem cells in shoot meristem during shoot elongation and branching. - We compared the model prediction with empirical data from tropical trees, Dipterocarpaceae, and estimated the dynamics of stem cells and mutation rate. - Somatic mutation dynamics were shaped by somatic genetic drift arising from stem cell lineage replacement during shoot elongation and branching. - Accounting for stem cell dynamics led to slightly smaller estimates of mutation rates compared with previous estimates that ignored the dynamics. - Our models offer insights into how genetic variability is shaped in the tropical trees and the stem cell dynamics underlying their long-term growth.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2026

Evolutionary origin of prolonged delayed fertilization in the Fagaceae

The temporal organization of flowering, fertilization, and fruiting is a fundamental axis of life-history evolution in angiosperms. While most species complete fruit development within a single growing season ("1-year fruiting"), many Fagaceae species delay fertilization and fruit maturation until the year following flowering ("2-year fruiting"). Despite its ecological prevalence, the evolutionary origins of this strategy and its coordination with other functional traits remain poorly understood. In this study, we investigated the evolutionary origins of the two-year fruiting strategy by reconstructing ancestral states on a phylogeny comprising 88 species that represent all eight genera of Fagaceae. We further employed phylogenetic comparative analyses to test whether the fruiting trait is evolutionarily constrained by pollination mode (animal versus wind-pollinated) or leaf habit (evergreen versus deciduous). Our results support a single origin of 2-year fruiting in the common ancestor of the major clade excluding Fagus and Trigonobalanus, followed by multiple independent reversions to 1-year fruiting in lineages including Castanea, Quercus, and Castanopsis. Ancestral-state reconstructions of pollination mode and leaf habit strongly support entomophily and an evergreen leaf habit as ancestral traits of Quercoideae, predating the emergence of the 2-year fruiting strategy. Although entomophily and evergreen habit were ancestral in Quercoideae, our correlation analyses indicate that transitions in fruiting strategy did not depend on changes in these traits. These results provide macroevolutionary evidence that extreme extensions of the interval between pollination and fertilization can be evolutionarily stable yet rarely re-evolve once lost over long evolutionary timescales.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Molecular evolution of terpene synthase underlying the diversification of isoprene emission in Fagaceae

Plants emit a wide range of volatile organic compounds, among which isoprene is the most abundant and atmospherically influential. Although oak species are major contributors to isoprene emission, there is considerable variation in isoprene emission capacity within the Fagaceae family. To unravel the evolutionary origins of isoprene emission, we investigated the molecular evolution of terpene synthase (TPS) genes across eight species within the Fagaceae. We identified a Fagaceae-specific TPS-b subclade in which potential isoprene synthase (IspS) activity evolved independently in two gene lineages within subgenus Quercus. Ancestral sequence reconstruction revealed that the acquisition of a diagnostic amino acid residue for IspS function arose convergently in these lineages and was subject to positive selection, suggesting adaptive evolution. Ancestral-enzyme assays targeting the gene lineage with high gene expression revealed that the early protein primarily produced monoterpenes from geranyl diphosphate (GPP), whereas their descendants shifted substrate preference to dimethylallyl diphosphate (DMAPP), evolving into dedicated isoprene synthases. Our results indicate that IspS activity was not ancestral in Fagaceae, but evolved approximately 56 million years ago within the subgenus Quercus, and has been retained ever since. These findings emphasize the roles of enzyme structural innovation and regulatory shifts in the diversification of volatile terpenoid biosynthesis.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2025

Molecular basis behind the isoprene emission diversity in Fagaceae

Plants emit a large amount of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) into the atmosphere, reaching approximately 109 tons of carbon per year. These biogenic VOCs exhibit significant chemical diversity, with terpenoids being the dominant group, and isoprene accounting for nearly half of the total biogenic VOCs. Due to its high chemical reactivity, isoprene has a strong impact on atmospheric quality and climate. Quercus species (Fagaceae) are known to be the main isoprene emitters in the Northern Hemisphere. However, isoprene synthase is unknown in the entire Fagaceae family. Notably, even within a single genus such as Quercus, both isoprene-emitting and non-emitting species are present, yet the molecular basis of this dichotomy remains unclear. Here, we report the identification of the IspS gene from the isoprene-emitting species Quercus serrata (QsIspS1) through seasonal transcriptome analysis and its detailed biochemical characterization. We also identified two genes with high sequence similarity to QsIspS1 in the genomes of non-emitting species: Q. glauca (QgIspS1-like) and Lithocarpus edulis (LeIspS1-like). We discovered mutations in these sequences that likely impair their function. Biochemical analysis revealed that QgIspS1-like is a monoterpene synthase, whereas LeIspS1-like is a pseudogene incapable of isoprene synthesis, explaining these plants inability to emit isoprene. Furthermore, site-directed mutagenesis revealed an amino acid that plays a pivotal role in the substrate and product specificities of isoprene synthase. Our findings provide new insight into the molecular mechanisms of isoprene emission diversity in Fagaceae.

biochemistry↗

bioRxiv2025

The evolution of gene expression in seasonal environments

The biological activities of organisms are closely linked to seasonality. Phenology, the temporal orchestration of biological activities, is governed by gene expression, yet the evolutionary dynamics underlying seasonal gene expression remain unclear. To investigate these dynamics, we compared genome-wide expression dynamics (molecular phenology) in four dominant evergreen Fagaceae species in Asia (Quercus glauca, Q. acuta, Lithocarpus edulis, and L. glaber), using leaf and bud tissues over two seasonal cycles. We assembled high-quality reference genomes, identifying 11749 single-copy orthologous genes. Seasonal transcriptomic profiling of these orthologous genes revealed highly conserved gene expression across species in winter when temperatures fall below [~]10{degrees}C. Rhythmic gene expression with significant periodic oscillations was more prevalent in buds (51.9%) than in leaves (40.6%), with most rhythmic genes (78.4-92.0%) exhibiting annual periodicity, while a smaller fraction (1.2-11.9%) followed half-annual cycles. The seasonal peaks of rhythmic genes were highly synchronized across species in winter but diverged during the growing season, reflecting species-specific timing of leaf flushing and flowering. These findings suggest that the four species share a common molecular calendar in winter, which constrains the evolution of gene expression under seasonal environments. Impact StatementA comparative analysis of genome-wide seasonal gene expression dynamics across four forest tree species revealed that a shared "molecular calendar" emerges in winter, constraining gene expression evolution and potentially limiting temporal niche partitioning and species divergence in seasonal environments.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2024

Male and female gametophytes meet after winter: Testing the overwintering hypothesis for delayed fertilization in Japanese stone oak

PremiseFertilization delays of nearly a year have been observed in many acorn-producing Fagaceae trees. Despite this long-standing recognition, the underlying mechanisms and adaptive significance of delayed fertilization remain largely unexplored. It has been hypothesized that these prolonged delays may serve as an adaptive strategy, allowing ovules to be fertilized and seeds to develop during more favorable seasons, thereby avoiding the adverse conditions of winter. However, empirical evidence to support this hypothesis is still lacking. MethodsTo test the overwintering hypothesis, we observed the seasonal progression of pollen tube growth and ovule development in Lithocarpus edulis, a species exhibiting two flowering seasons, spring and autumn. We conducted monthly observations of pollen tube growth and ovule development in both spring and autumn flower samples. We employed microtome techniques and scanning confocal microscopy to closely examine the seasonal progression of pollen tube growth and ovule development. ResultsWe found that pollen tubes were arrested at the style-joining site, and ovules remained immature in both spring and autumn samples prior to winter. Following winter, pollen tube regrowth and ovule maturation were synchronized in the subsequent spring in both spring and autumn samples. ConclusionsOur results support the overwintering hypothesis, suggesting that delayed fertilization may serve as an adaptive strategy to ensure fertilization in spring, overcoming the reproductive challenges posed by cold winter conditions. Our study introduces a new avenue for studying the temporal organization of plant reproductive phenology, specifically the alignment of flowering, pollination, fertilization, and fruiting in seasonal environments.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2024

Theoretical analyses for the evolution of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emission strategy

Plants emit biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) as signaling molecules, playing a crucial role in inducing resistance against herbivores. Neighboring plants that eavesdrop on BVOC signals can also increase defenses against herbivores or alter growth patterns to respond to potential risks of herbivore damage. Despite the significance of BVOC emissions, the evolutionary rationales behind their release and the factors contributing to the diversity in such emissions remain poorly understood. To unravel the conditions for the evolution of BVOC emission, we developed a spatially-explicit model that formalizes the evolutionary dynamics of BVOC emission and non-emission strategies. Our model considered two effects of BVOC signaling that impact the fitness of plants: intra-individual communication, which mitigates herbivore damage through the plants own BVOC signaling incurring emission costs, and inter-individual communication, which alters the influence of herbivory based on BVOC signals from other individuals without incurring emission costs. Employing two mathematical models--the lattice model and the random distribution model--we investigated how intra-individual communication, inter-individual communication, and spatial structure influenced the evolution of BVOC emission strategies. Our analysis revealed that the increase in intra-individual communication promotes the evolution of the BVOC emission strategy. In contrast, the increase in inter-individual communication effect favors cheaters who benefit from the BVOCs released from neighboring plants without bearing the costs associated with BVOC emission. Our analysis also demonstrated that the narrower the spatial scale of BVOC signaling, the higher the likelihood of BVOC evolution. This research sheds light on the intricate dynamics governing the evolution of BVOC emissions and their implications for plant-plant communication.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2024

Genetic diversity within a tree and alternative indexes for different evolutionary effects

Trees, living for centuries, accumulate somatic mutations in their growing trunks and branches, causing genetic divergence within a single tree. Stem cell lineages in a shoot apical meristem accumulate mutations independently and diverge from each other. In plants, somatic mutations can alter the genetic composition of reproductive organs and gametes, impacting future generations. To evaluate the genetic variation among a trees reproductive organs, we consider three indexes: mean pairwise phylogenetic distance [Formula], phylogenetic diversity (PD; sum of branch lengths in molecular phylogeny), and parent-offspring phylogenetic distance (DPO). The tissue architecture of trees facilitated the accumulation of somatic mutations, which have various evolutionary effects, including enhancing fitness under strong sib competition and intense host-pathogen interactions, efficiently eliminating deleterious mutations through epistasis, and increasing genetic variance in the population. Choosing appropriate indexes for the genetic diversity of somatic mutations depends on the specific aspect of evolutionary influence being assessed.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2023

Branching architecture affects genetic diversity within an individual tree

PremiseWhile a tree grows over many years, somatic mutations accumulate and generate a genetically diverse individual. Trees can transmit such mutations to subsequent generations, potentially enhancing the genetic diversity of the population. We study a mathematical model to understand the relationship between within-individual genetic variation and branching architecture. MethodsWe generate branching architecture by repeatedly adding two new branches (main and lateral daughter branches) to each terminal branch (mother branch). Tree shape is determined by two key parameters: daughter-mother ratio (DM) and main-lateral ratio (ML). During branch elongation, somatic mutations accumulate in the stem cells of a shoot apical meristem (SAM) at the tip of each branch. In branching, all the stem cells are passed on from the mother to the main daughter branch, but only one stem cell is chosen for the lateral daughter branch. We evaluate genetic variation by [Formula], the mean genetic differences between all pairs of branches of a tree, and examine how [Formula] varies with DM and ML while keeping the total branch length constant. Key results and Conclusions(1) [Formula] attains the maximum for an intermediate DM, when stem cells in the SAM are genetically homogeneous; (2) [Formula] decreases monotonically with DM when stem cells are genetically heterogeneous; and (3) [Formula] increases monotonically with ML. Even though the total branch length remains constant, the within-individual genetic variation differs substantially. The results demonstrate the importance of branching architecture in storing genetic diversity.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

FCS-Like Zinc finger 14 (FLZ14) mediates the crosstalk between TORC and SnRK1 in response to sugar availability.

Matching resource availability to growth is crucial for plant fitness. We identified that FCS- Like Zinc finger 14 (FLZ14) gauges carbon (C) status to adjust growth by inhibiting the TARGET OF RAPAMYCIN (TOR) activity in short days via REGULATORY- ASSOCIATED PROTEIN OF TARGET OF RAPAMYCIN 1B (RAPTOR1B). Besides being transcriptionally induced by sugars, the amplitude of FLZ14 induction correlates to the diel sugar status, indicating that FLZ14 responses to sugar oscillations in planta. Genetic evidence elucidated that FLZ14 is involved in the crosstalk between TORC and SUCROSE NON-FERMENTING RELATED KINASE 1 (SnRK1). In short photoperiods, FLZ14 and KIN10 genetically interact to set the pace of TORC activity. By contrast, under long day photoperiods, FLZ14 and RAPTOR1B genetically interact, most likely to downregulate SnRK1 signalling. This report highlights the function of a sugar-responsive gene in mediating the crosstalk between TORC and SnRK1 to fine-tune growth.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2023

Seasonal gene-expression signatures of delayed fertilization in Fagaceae

In the family Fagaceae, fertilization is delayed by several weeks to one year after pollination, leading to one- or two-year fruiting species depending on whether fruiting occurs in the same or the next year after flowering. To investigate physiological responses underlying the regulation of delayed fertilization, we monitored seasonal changes in genome-wide gene expression in tissues including leaves and buds over two years under natural conditions in one- (Quercus glauca) and two-year fruiting species (Lithocarpus edulis). Genes associated with the responses to cold stress, photosynthesis, and cell proliferation, which are essential for survival and growth, showed highly conserved seasonal expression profiles regardless of species. However, seasonal expression profiles diverged between the one- and two-year fruiting species in genes associated with pollination, an important process contributing to the origin and maintenance of the reproductive barrier between plant species. By comparing seasonal progression of ovule development and gene expression in pistillate flowers, we revealed that ovules started developing after winter in the two-year fruiting species, which could be linked to the activation of genes involved in fertilization and female gametophyte development after winter. These findings suggest that the two-year fruiting species may have evolved a requirement of winter cold to prevent fertilization before winter and facilitate fertilization and embryo development in the following spring when temperature rises. This study offers new possibilities to explore the evolution of reproductive strategies in Fagaceae.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

The molecular clock in long-lived tropical trees is independent of growth rate

The rates of appearance of new mutations play a central role in evolution. However, mutational processes in natural environments and their relationship with growth rates are largely unknown, particular in tropical ecosystems with high biodiversity. Here, we examined the somatic mutation landscapes of two tropical trees, Shorea laevis (slow-growing) and S. leprosula (fast-growing), in central Borneo, Indonesia. Using newly-constructed genomes, we identified a greater number of somatic mutations in tropical trees than in temperate trees. In both species, we observed a linear increase in the number of somatic mutations with physical distance between branches. However, we found that the rate of somatic mutation accumulation per meter of growth was 3.7-fold higher in S. laevis than in S. leprosula. This difference in the somatic mutation rate was scaled with the slower growth rate of S. laevis compared to S. leprosula, resulting in a constant somatic mutation rate per year between the two species. We also found that somatic mutations are neutral within an individual, but those mutations transmitted to the next generation are subject to purifying selection. These findings suggest that somatic mutations accumulate with absolute time and older trees have a greater contribution towards generating genetic variation. Significance StatementThe significance of our study lies in the discovery of an absolute time-dependent accumulation of somatic mutations in long-lived tropical trees, independent of growth rate. Through a comparative analysis of somatic mutation landscapes in slow- and fast-growing species, we observed a clock-like accumulation of somatic mutations in both species, regardless of their growth rates. Although the majority of somatic mutations were restricted to a single branch, we also identified mutations present in multiple branches, likely transmitted during growth. Our findings suggest that older trees make a greater contribution towards generating genetic variation.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

The transcriptional changes underlying the flowering phenology shift in response to climate warming

Climate warming is causing shifts in key life-history events, such as flowering time. To assess the impacts of climate warming on flowering phenology, it is crucial to understand the transcriptional changes of genes underlying the phenological shifts. Here, we comprehensively explore genes that contribute to the flowering phenology shifts under climate warming by monitoring the latitudinal gradient of seasonal expression dynamics of 293 flowering-time genes in a perennial herb, Arabidopsis halleri. Through transplant experiments conducted at northern, southern, and subtropical study sites in Japan, we have demonstrated that the flowering period was shortened with decreasing latitude and ultimately, the plants lost the opportunity to flower in subtropical climates. The key transcriptional changes underlying the shift in flowering phenology and the loss of flowering opportunity were the diminished expression of floral pathway integrator genes and genes in the gibberellin synthesis and aging pathways, all of which are suppressed by increased expression of FLOWERING LOCUS C, a central repressor of flowering. These results suggest that the upper-temperature threshold beyond which plants cannot reproduce in response to warming is governed by a relatively small number of genes that suppress reproduction in the absence of winter cold.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2022

The genetic structure within a single tree is determined by the behavior of the stem cells in the meristem

Genomic sequencing revealed that somatic mutations cause a genetic differentiation of the cells in a single tree. In this study, we consider a mathematical model for stem cell proliferation in the shoot apical meristem (abbrev. SAM), which results in genetic diversification between the cells differing in the distance along the shoot and the angle around a shoot axis. The assumptions are as follows. Stem cells in the SAM normally undergo asymmetric cell division and produce successor stem cells and differentiated cells. The differentiated cells proliferate and contribute to shoot elongation. Occasionally, a stem cell is replaced by a copy of an adjacent stem cell. We discuss the "coalescent length" between cells indicating their genetic difference with respect to neutral mutations. A mathematical analysis revealed the following. The genetic diversity of cells sampled at the same position along the shoot increases with the distance from the bottom of the shoot. Stem cells hold a larger variation if they are replaced only by the nearest neighbors than if they are replaced by any cells. The coalescent length between two cells increases not only with the difference in the position along the shoot but also in the angle around the shoot axis. The dynamics of stem cells at the SAM determine the genetic pattern of the entire shoot.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2022

Modelling somatic mutation accumulation and expansion in a long-lived tree with hierarchical modular architecture

In a long-lived organism with a modular architecture, such as trees, somatic mutations accumulate throughout the long lifespan and result in genetic mosaicism in each module within the same individual. In recent years, next-generation sequencing technology has provided a snapshot of such intra-organismal genetic variability. However, the dynamic processes underlying the accumulation and expansion of somatic mutations during the growth remain poorly understood. In this study, we constructed a model to describe these processes in a form that can be applied to a real tree. Given that the proliferation dynamics of meristematic cells vary across plant species, multiple possible processes for elongation and branching were comprehensively expressed in our model. Using published data from a poplar tree, we compared the prediction of the models with the observation and explained the cell lineage dynamics underlying somatic mutations accumulation that were not evident from the snapshot of the sequenced data. We showed that the somatic genetic drift during growth increases inter-meristem mosaicism, resulting in genetically distinct branches and less integrity within an individual tree. We also showed that the somatic genetic drift during branching leads to the mutation accumulation pattern that does not reflect the tree topology. Our modelling framework can help interpret and provide further insights into the empirical findings of genetic mosaicism in long-lived trees.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Assessing the impacts of climate change on reproductive phenology in tropical rainforests of Southeast Asia

In humid forests in Southeast Asia, many species from dozens of plant families flower gregariously and fruit synchronously at irregular multi-year intervals1-4. Little is known about how climate change will impact these community-wide mass reproductive events. Here, we perform a comprehensive analysis of reproductive phenology and its environmental drivers based on a monthly reproductive phenology record from 210 species in 41 families in peninsular Malaysia. We find that the proportion of flowering and fruiting species decreased from 1976 to 2010. Using a phenology model with inputs obtained from general circulation models, we show that low-temperature flowering cues became less available during the monitoring period and will further decrease in the future, leading to decreased flowering opportunities in 57% of species in the Dipterocarpaceae family. Our results highlight the vulnerability of and variability in phenological responses across species in tropical ecosystems that differ from temperate and boreal biomes.

ecology↗