Biology subjects

Saltre, F.

Publications and source records attributed to Saltre, F..

9 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Species richness and trait diversity show parallel island-biogeographic patterns across Australian islands

Island biogeography is the theoretical and empirically validated expectation that an islands biodiversity is ultimately limited by its size and isolation, with larger and less isolated (from mainland communities) islands supporting greater diversity. Island biogeography is generally applied to simple metrics of diversity such as species richness (number of different species); however, fewer studies have used traits to measure biodiversity. An organisms traits -- e.g., body mass, age at sexual maturity, trophic level -- can be used to measure biodiversity and understand how ecological communities function. We quantified species richness for birds, mammals, reptiles, and amphibians, and functional diversity for birds and mammals (for which sufficient trait data were available), and tested whether this diversity can be predicted using the theory of island biogeography. We identified 9,103 Australian islands, of which 1,661 had at least one (native and/or non-native) non-marine species present according to the Atlas of Living Australia. As expected, tetrapod species richness (S) increased with island area (A) (z = 0.299 {+/-} 0.012) following a typical power-law relationship (i.e., S = cAz, where z = 0.2-0.4), but was not predicted by distance from mainland -- consistent with the pattern observed on other recently (< 10,000 years) isolated continental islands. We found that trait richness increased at the same rate with island area as species richness for mammals, but for birds, trait richness increased more slowly than species richness. Trait turnover increased modestly with inter-island distance, whereas trait nestedness was unrelated to distance. Trait richness increased strongly with species richness in both birds and mammals, and island area and isolation explained no additional variation in functional richness after accounting for species richness. These results indicate that island geography influences functional diversity primarily through species accumulation, rather than through direct effects on occupied trait space. Overall, the trait space of smaller islands tended to be nested within that of larger, nearby islands; the main differences among similar-sized islands are due to turnover (change in species/trait combinations among assemblages), and the effects are more pronounced in mammals compared to birds. We also found evidence for an asymptotic relationship between trait and species turnover in both birds and mammals, suggesting close coupling between taxonomic and functional turnover, with some saturation of trait turnover at high species turnover. Large islands that are simultaneously more isolated might offer conservation advantages by reducing the influence of threatening processes on the mainland if distance limits access of people and invasive species.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Global patterns and predictors of PFAS contamination in odontocetes

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are globally recognised as emerging contaminants of concern due to their persistence, toxicity, endocrine-disrupting and immunosuppressive effects. Because of their extensive industrial use, PFAS are now widespread across ecosystems and accumulate in marine environments. Despite their ubiquity, the extent and drivers of PFAS contamination remain poorly characterised, particularly in marine systems. Odontocetes (toothed whales) are effective bioindicators of marine pollution, integrating contamination across regions, time, and trophic levels. Here, we present the first global assessment of factors influencing PFAS contamination in marine ecosystems by analysing standardised PFAS concentrations of PFNA, PFDA, PFUnDA, PFDoDA and PFOS reported for 713 liver samples across 33 odontocete species spanning 13 countries from 2000 to 2023. Using generalised linear mixed models, we evaluated the effects of genus, location, sex, life stage, and sampling year on PFAS concentrations, combining published datasets with new samples from Australia. Genus and location were the strongest predictors, suggesting that interspecific ecological and physiological traits likely contribute to PFAS accumulation. Concentrations were highest in males and younger individuals, consistent with maternal offloading and possible age-related dilution. Spatio-temporal trends indicate that PFAS contamination is widespread and increasing globally, with highest concentrations reported in the Pacific. This study provides a critical baseline for understanding global PFAS exposure in marine mammals, which underscores the need for coordinated monitoring and further research to address regional data gaps and potential unrecognised biological effects. HighlightsO_LIHigh genus-specific and spatial differences in PFAS contamination across odontocetes globally. C_LIO_LIIncreased contamination in younger/smaller individuals. C_LIO_LISex-specific trends, including higher PFAS levels in male odontocetes. C_LIO_LISpatio-temporal trends suggesting increased PFAS concentration despite global regulatory efforts, with highest concentrations in the Pacific Ocean. C_LI

pharmacology and toxicology↗

bioRxiv2024

Trait-space disparity in fish communities spanning 380 million years from the Late Devonian to present

The diversity and distribution of species traits in an ecological community determine how it functions. While modern fish communities conse rve trait space across similar habitats, little is known about trait-space variation through deep time or across different habitats. We examined how fish trait diversity varies through space and time by comparing three Late Devonian fish communities -- a tropical reef (Gogo, Australia), a tropical estuary (Miguasha, Canada), and a temperate freshwater system (Canowindra, Australia) -- with six modern communities from diverse habitats. Trait-space metrics reflecting within-community diversity (functional richness) and species similarity (functional nearest-neighbour distance) indicated Late Devonian communities had scores similar to modern communities. However, they were less functionally rich than their closest modern analogues, and their species tended to be more functionally distinct from one another. Metrics describing location in trait space (centroid distances and hypervolume overlap) showed modern communities were similar to each other, Gogo and Miguasha were similar but distinct from modern communities, and Canowindra was distinct from all others. This pattern suggests period-associated differentiation and substantial heterogeneity among some Late Devonian communities. In addition to temporal changes, we found consistent differences associated with habitat type and climate zone. Reef and tropical communities were the most functionally rich, whereas functional nearest-neighbour scores were highest in estuarine and temperate communities. These results indicate fish community trait space varies with time, habitat and climate, suggesting (i) lability in fish trait space and (ii) that evolutionary history, environmental filtering, and stochasticity influence community assembly.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2024

Biological mechanisms are necessary to improve projections of species range shifts

The recent acceleration of global climate warming has created an urgent need for reliable projections of species distributions, widely used by natural resource managers. Such projections, however, are produced using various modeling approaches with little information on their relative performances under expected novel climatic conditions. Here, we hindcast the range shifts of five forest tree species across Europe over the last 12,000 years to compare the performance of three different types of species distribution models and determine the source of their robustness. We show that the performance of correlative models (CSDMs) decreases twice as fast as that of process-based models (PBMs) when climatic dissimilarity rises, and that PBM projections are likely to be more reliable than those made with CSDMs, at least until 2060 under scenario SSP245. These results demonstrate for the first time the well-established albeit so far untested idea that explicit description of mechanisms confers models robustness, and highlight a new avenue to improve model projections in the future.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Stochastic population models to identify optimal and cost-effective harvest strategies for feral pig eradication

Eradicating feral pigs from island ecosystems can assist in restoring damaged biodiversity values and protect commercial industries such as agriculture. Although many feral pig eradications have been attempted, management decisions are often led by practitioner experience rather than empirical evidence. Few interventions have been guided by population models to identify harvest rates necessary to achieve eradication within a specified time frame, nor have they applied data on control effort and cost to evaluate the relative cost-effectiveness of proposed control strategies. We used effort and cost data from a feral pig-control program on Kangaroo Island, South Australia over 17 months to derive functional-response relationships between control effort (hours pig-1) and pig abundance for four control methods: (i) ground-based shooting, (ii) trapping with remote triggers, (iii) poison baiting, and (iv) thermal-assisted aerial culling. We developed a stochastic Leslie matrix with compensatory density feedback on survival and fertility to project population trajectories from an initial population (N0) of 250 female pigs with an estimated island-wide carrying capacity (K) of 2500 over 3 and 10 years for populations subjected to an annual harvest of 35% to 95%. We built functional-response models to calculate annual effort and cost for six cull scenarios across all harvest rates. We derived total cost and effort over 3- and 10-year projections from the sum of annual cost and effort within the projection intervals. Pig populations were reduced to < 10% N0 based on harvest rates > 70% and 50% for culls of 3- and 10-year duration, respectively. In all scenarios except trapping only, the total cost to reduce population to [≤] 10% of N0 decreased with increasing harvest proportion, with lower total costs incurred over 3 years compared to 10 years. The simulations suggest that the most cost-effective approach for most scenarios is to maximise annual harvest and complete eradication effort over the shortest periods.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Predicting predator-prey interactions in terrestrial endotherms using random forest

Species interactions play a fundamental role in ecosystems. However, few ecological communities have complete data describing such interactions, which is an obstacle to understanding how ecosystems function and respond to perturbations. Because it is often impractical to collect empirical data for all interactions in a community, various methods have been developed to infer interactions. Machine learning is increasingly being used for making interaction predictions, with random forest being one of the most frequently used of these methods. However, performance of random forest in inferring predator-prey interactions in terrestrial vertebrates and its sensitivity to training data quality remain untested. We examined predator-prey interactions in two diverse, primarily terrestrial vertebrate classes: birds and mammals. Combining data from a global interaction dataset and a specific community (Simpson Desert, Australia), we tested how well random forest predicted predator-prey interactions for mammals and birds using species ecomorphological and phylogenetic traits. We also tested how variation in training data quality--manipulated by removing records and switching interaction records to non-interactions--affected model performance. We found that random forest could predict predator-prey interactions for birds and mammals using ecomorphological or phylogenetic traits, correctly predicting up to 88% and 67% of interactions and non-interactions in the global and community-specific datasets, respectively. These predictions were accurate even when there were no records in the training data for focal species. In contrast, false non-interactions for focal predators in training data strongly degraded model performance. Our results demonstrate that random forest can identify predator-prey interactions for birds and mammals that have few or no interaction records. Furthermore, our study provides guidance on how to prepare training data to optimise machine-learning classifiers for predicting species interactions, which could help ecologists (i) address knowledge gaps and explore network-related questions in data-poor situations, and (ii) predict interactions for range-expanding species.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Modelling effects of water regulation on the population viability of threatened amphibians

The regulation of river systems alters hydrodynamics and often reduces lateral connectivity between river channels and floodplains. For taxa such as frogs that rely on floodplain wetlands to complete their lifecycle, decreasing inundation frequency can reduce recruitment and increase the probability of local extinction. We virtually reconstructed the inundation patterns of wetlands under natural and regulated flow conditions and built stochastic population models to quantify the probability of local extinction under different inundation scenarios. Specifically, we explored the interplay of habitat size, inundation frequency, and successive dry years on the local extinction probability of the threatened southern bell frog Litoria raniformis in the Murray River floodplains of South Australia. We hypothesised that the changes to wetland inundation resulting from river regulation are a principal driver of L. raniformis declines in this semi-arid system. Regulation has reduced the inundation frequency of essential habitats below critical thresholds for the persistence of many fresh water-dependent species. Successive dry years raise the probability of local extinction, and these effects are strongest in smaller wetlands. Larger wetlands and those with more frequent average inundation are less susceptible to these effects. Elucidating these trends informs the prioritisation of treatment sites and the frequency of conservation interventions. Environmental water provision (through pumping or the operation of flow-regulating structures) is a promising tool to reduce the probability of breeding failure and local extinction. Our modelling approach can be used to prioritise the delivery of environmental water to L. raniformis and potentially many other frog species.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Relative demographic susceptibility does not explain the extinction chronology of Sahul's megafauna

The causes of Sahuls megafauna extinctions remain uncertain, although multiple, interacting factors were likely responsible. To test hypotheses regarding plausible ecological mechanisms underlying these extinctions, we constructed the first stochastic, age-structured models for 13 extinct megafauna species from five functional/taxonomic groups, as well as 8 extant species within these groups for comparison. Perturbing specific demographic rates individually, we tested which species were more demographically susceptible to extinction, and then compared these relative sensitivities to the fossil-derived extinction chronology. Here we show that the macropodiformes were the most resilient to extinction, followed by carnivores, monotremes, vombatiform herbivores, and large birds. Five of the eight extant species were as or more susceptible than were the extinct species. There was no clear relationship between extinction susceptibility and the extinction chronology for any perturbation scenario, but body mass and generation length explained much of the variation in relative risk. Our models reveal that the actual mechanisms leading to extinction were unlikely related to variation in demographic susceptibility per se, but were driven instead by finer-scale variation in climate change and/or human prey choice and relative hunting success.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Predicting feral cat-reduction targets and costs on large islands using stochastic population models

Feral cats are some of the most destructive invasive predators worldwide, particularly in insular environments; hence, density-reduction campaigns are often applied to alleviate the predation mortality they add to native fauna. Density-reduction and eradication efforts are costly procedures with important outcomes for native fauna recovery, so they require adequate planning to be successful. These plans need to include empirical density-reduction models that can guide yearly culling quotas, and resource roll-out for the duration of the culling period. This ensures densities are reduced over the long term and that no resources are wasted. We constructed a stochastic population model with cost estimates to test the relative effectiveness and cost-efficiency of two main culling scenarios for a 10-year eradication campaign of cats on Kangaroo Island, Australia: (1) constant proportional annual cull (one-phase), and (2) high initial culling followed by a constant proportional maintenance cull (two-phase). A one-phase cull of at least 0.35 of the annual population size would reduce the final population to 0.1 of its original size, while a two-phase cull with an initial cull of minimum 0.6 and minimum 0.5 maintenance cull would reduce the final population to 0.01 of its initial size by 2030. Cost estimates varied widely depending on the methods applied (shooting, trapping, aerial poison baits, Felixer poison-delivery system), but using baiting, trapping and Felixers with additional shooting to meet culling quotas was the most cost-effective combination (minimum cost: AU$19.56 million; range: AU$16.87 million-AU$20.69 million). Our model provides an adaptable and general assessment tool for cat reductions in Australia and potentially elsewhere, and provides relative culling costs for the Kangaroo Island programme specifically.

ecology↗