Biology subjects

Rossberg, A.

Publications and source records attributed to Rossberg, A..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2022

Predicting Schrödinger's range-shifting cat: Analytic results for the impact of asymmetric environmental dependence on species responses to climate change

Analytic models for how species will respond to climate change can highlight key parameter dependencies. By mapping equations for population dynamics onto corresponding well-studied problems from quantum mechanics we derive analytical results for the frequently observed case of asymmetric environmental response curves. We derive expressions in terms of parameters representing climate velocity, dispersal rate, maximum growth rate, niche width, high-frequency climate variability and environmental performance curve skew for three key responses: 1) population persistence, 2) lag between range displacement and climate displacement, 3) location of maximum population sensitivity. Surprisingly, under our model assumptions, the direction of performance curve asymmetry does not strongly contribute to either persistence or lags. Conservation measures to support range-shifting populations may have most benefit near their environmental optimum or where the environmental dependence is shallow, irrespective of whether this is the leading or trailing edge. A metapopulation simulation corroborates our results.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Temporally robust spatial structure in ecosystems explained by local biodiversity regulation

The mechanisms determining the distribution of the number of sites species occupy--the occupancy frequency distribution (OFD)--remain incompletely understood despite decades of research. Here we study OFD in fresh-water metacommunities in England. We show that OFD are largely time invariant despite continuous turnover in community composition and well described by log-series distributions. Both shape and temporal robustness are readily explained by a simple patch occupancy model with intrinsic regulation of local richness. The model is mathematically analogous to classical neutral theory, but concerns numbers of patches occupied instead of individuals present. The precise shape of the models log-series OFD is determined by a parameter representing the rate of colonisation from adjacent sites, which we estimate for the data. Our results support the view that meta-community structure reflects a dynamic steady state controlled by local ecological constraints. Interspecific trait differences underlie these constraints, but are unlikely to determine macroecological structure.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Predictors of the long-term conservation value of sites in a mechanistic metacommunity model

Conserving biodiversity often requires deciding which sites to prioritise for protection. Predicting the impact of habitat loss is a major challenge, however, since impacts can be distant from the perturbation in both space and time. Here we study the long-term impacts of habitat loss in a mechanistic metacommunity model in terms of both immediate extinctions and secondary species losses. We find that biomass-at-site, closely related to site area, is a poor predictor of long-term regional species losses following site removal. Knowledge of the compositional distinctness (average between-site Bray-Curtis dissimilarity) of the removed community can markedly improve the prediction of impacts at the regional scale, even when biotic responses play out at substantial spatial or temporal distance from the removed site. Fitting our model to empirical species-by-site tables describing Andean diatoms and Brazilian lichen-fungi, we show that compositional distinctness surpasses area as a predictor of long-term species losses in the empirically relevant parameter range. Our results robustly demonstrate that site area alone is not sufficient to gauge conservation priorities; analysis of compositional distinctness permits improved prioritisation at low cost.

ecology↗