Biology subjects

Rosindell, J.

Publications and source records attributed to Rosindell, J..

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

A framework for measuring national trends in the extinction risk of evolutionarily distinct species using the EDGE Index

The biodiversity crisis is threatening evolutionarily distinct species, those that constitute long periods of unique evolutionary history or that are from highly imperilled lineages. The EDGE (Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered) index was designed to track the changing extinction risks of these species and is listed as an indicator in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. Here, we provide a set of guidelines for calculating the EDGE index at the national level and for addressing data uncertainty. We distinguish two approaches for calculating a country-level EDGE index, either generated directly by using national data or from disaggregated global data. Using two national Red Lists, we show the contrasting state of high evolutionarily distinct nesting birds across French territories, and the elevated threat status of high evolutionarily distinct endemic species for South African vertebrates. Using global extinction risk data, we then reveal the deteriorating state of birds, mammals, and amphibians over time, and we highlight the countries with the highest proportions of threatened evolutionarily distinct species. Application of these guidelines should aid countries in monitoring their evolutionarily irreplaceable species, which in turn can help target local conservation actions, while contributing to global efforts to preserve the tree of life.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2026

Assembling a fully-dated complete tree of life

Time-scaled phylogenetic trees summarising evolutionary relationships are fundamental to many analyses in biology, from diversification rate estimation to conservation prioritisation. The most comprehensive available summary of these relationships, the Open Tree of Life, synthesises information from over two thousand studies into a supertree covering the full range of global biodiversity, but its use in downstream analyses is limited by the lack of divergence times. Previous work has mapped dates from Open Trees database of trees to certain nodes in the supertree, but for the majority of nodes no date is available. While algorithms exist to interpolate missing dates in a tree, we found that their time and memory requirements scaled quadratically with the number of nodes, which made it computationally infeasible to run them on the entire tree. In this work, we describe novel date interpolation algorithms that scale linearly with the number of nodes. These enabled us to produce a distribution of fully-dated trees containing 2.3 million extant described species, greatly expanding the scope of feasible phylogenetic analyses. We illustrate the utility of these trees by computing the most robust estimate yet of the phylogenetic diversity of the complete tree of life, incorporating both topological and temporal uncertainty.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2025

Systematic review of biodiversity monitoring shows gradual rise of scaleable and automated methods and inherent spatial and taxonomic biases

1Global policy efforts to reverse biodiversity declines are hindered by a lack of clarity over how to measure biodiversity. The debate over the best ways to define biodiversity and which metrics to use has taken place in the absence of a clear, holistic view of how biodiversity has been, and is currently, measured. This gap has hindered us moving from discussion to action on conserving biodiversity. Here we track trends in biodiversity measurement, using a dataset of >2400 papers across the last 22 years, identifying trends, biases, and gaps in the assessment of nine major taxonomic groups (Invertebrate, fish, aquatic mammal, terrestrial mammal, bird, herpetofauna, fungi, microbe and plant). We found proportional declines in invertebrate, but increases in fish, surveys over time, and fewer assessments of biodiversity in Africa and Oceania. Although we do find an increase in the use of high-throughput, scaleable methods such as eDNA and camera-traps, their uptake is more modest than might be expected and shows signs of having already plateaued. We argue that emerging technologies can, but remain underutilised in addressing the systematic biases in our understanding of biodiversity, and so in helping guide and track our progress towards restoring and saving biodiversity.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Phylogenetic Diversity Across the Complete Tree of Life

In the face of rapid biodiversity loss, many approaches have been developed to measure biodiversity in ways that go beyond species richness. One prominent example is Phylogenetic Diversity (PD), which, on a dated phylogenetic tree, measures evolutionary history by summing the branch lengths measured in time required to connect a set of species. PD may also capture other biodiversity measures by proxy such as the richness of biological features and their potential benefits for humanity, known as future options. The total global PD is known for some well-studied groups, such as most vertebrates, but PD estimates are lacking for the majority of the tree of life. Here, we characterize the distribution of PD across the complete tree of life with over 2.2 million species. To do this we use data from the Open Tree of Life and a smoothing method to interpolate between nodes without date information. We estimate that the PD represented by all described species together is between 30 and 33 trillion years (95% confidence interval). We characterize the distribution of evolutionary distinctiveness, a measure of the fair share of PD captured by individual species, across all life and within selected clades. This Evolutionary Distinctiveness metric has previously been used as the basis for conservation prioritization schemes such as EDGE (Evolutionary Distinct and Globally Endangered) which synthesizes phylogenetic tree data with extinction risk data from the IUCN Red List of threatened species. We use our results to estimate EDGE scores for over 130,000 species. We also estimate the amount of threatened phylogenetic diversity across the complete tree of life. We hope this work will pave the way for more complete and automated analyses of PD, Evolutionary Distinctiveness, threatened evolutionary history, and EDGE scores across the complete tree of life.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2025

Phylogenetically-informed crayfish conservation in the face of climate change

Crayfish are an ancient clade of freshwater decapods that play vital and diverse ecological roles in the freshwater systems that they inhabit. One third of assessed crayfish species are threatened with extinction and 87% are highly sensitive to climate change. However, the extent to which the evolutionary history of crayfish is threatened, especially by climate change, remains unclear. To address this, we produced a phylogenetically-informed species prioritisation for the conservation of crayfish and explored the consequences of projected climate change scenarios on crayfish phylogenetic diversity. We used the EDGE2 metric to highlight 70 priority species for conservation. Their combined threatened evolutionary history accounts for 40.7% of the expected phylogenetic diversity loss for all 673 crayfish. Of these priority species, 45.7% are vulnerable to climate change, with the majority (32 species) located in Australia. Under a high warming scenario, individual species that are more evolutionarily distinct are projected to be disproportionately affected. The extinction of climate change vulnerable species could cause the loss of up to 26.3% more phylogenetic diversity than the random expectation, equivalent to 409 million years of evolutionary history. Our results highlight the need to consider climate change effects on phylogenetic diversity to fully understand its impact on biodiversity. If actions were taken to avoid a worst-case warming scenario in favour of an intermediate scenario, we could safeguard 251 million years of unique crayfish evolutionary history.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

300 billion years of angiosperm evolution at risk of extinction

Extinction results in not only loss of species, but also loss of the unique evolutionary history that they represent and the irreplaceable features they exhibit. There is broad consensus regarding the necessity to optimise the preservation of the tree of life by including evolutionary information in conservation prioritisation, a notion also endorsed by major policy frameworks1-4. However, evolutionarily-informed prioritisations are lacking for most plants, resulting in a taxonomic imbalance in the evolutionary information incorporated in global biodiversity analyses, which has undermined conservation for decades. Here, we use comprehensive species-level phylogenetic trees, and extinction risk estimates, to generate the first global assessment of angiosperm evolutionary history at risk, and to identify phylogenetically-informed conservation priorities for the worlds flowering plants. We estimate that more than one fifth of angiosperm evolutionary history is at risk of extinction in the short term. Using the Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered5,6 approach, we identify 9,945 threatened plant species that disproportionately account for total evolutionary history at risk. Species and area prioritisations incorporating evolutionary history are urgently needed to correct imbalances between plants and animals, monitor the effectiveness of conservation efforts, and optimise conservation resource allocation in the face of increasing human pressures on Earths biodiversity.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2024

Prioritising Functionally Distinct and Globally Endangered (FuDGE) sharks for conservation action

Robust species-level methods for quantifying ecological differences have yet to be incorporated into conservation strategies. Here, we present a conservation prioritisation approach that integrates species trait data and extinction risk to quantify the contribution of individual species to overall functional diversity. The Functionally Irreplaceable with Risk of Extinction (FIRE) metric directs conservation action to species whose extinction is expected to result in significant losses of functional diversity. We applied our framework to sets of species at the global scale. First we assessed the worlds birds, highlighting congruent and divergent priorities identified by trait-based and phylogenetic approaches. Second, we applied FIRE to the worlds sharks, exploring the impact of imputed traits on prioritisation robustness. For birds and sharks, we show that prioritising by functional irreplaceability is an effective strategy to conserve exploited species. The FIRE metric provides a robust tool to facilitate the incorporation of functional diversity into conservation policy and practice, revealing species that may be overlooked by existing approaches.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Quantifying the IUCN Red List: Using historical assessments to calculate future extinction risk

The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species assigns species to discrete categories based on a common set of criteria to capture relative extinction risk. Some quantitative analyses require a continuous probability of extinction not provided by discrete categories. Furthermore, the criteria may not translate to extinction risk in a universal way across species, because some species attributes are not incorporated into the criteria. Here we calculate extinction risk using Markov Models parameterised with historical IUCN Red List assessment data, and we provide quantitative extinction risk for use in downstream analyses. We find that taxonomy, body size, and habitat specialism interact with extinction risk in ways not fully captured by the existing categories. For example, an Endangered habitat specialist appears equally at risk compared to a Critically Endangered habitat generalist. We hope our findings will support more accurate quantitative biodiversity analyses of species extinctions and declines using Red List data.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Climatic limits to Atlantic salmon population fitness at continental scales

Anadromous fish populations are declining globally, partly due to acute pressure from rapid environmental change in their freshwater and marine habitats. A more mechanistic understanding of how climatic and land use changes impact their population-level fitness is needed to mitigate these declines. Here we develop a model that successfully captures the thermal niche of the declining Atlantic salmon. This allows us to predict the combined effects of changes in two dominant threats to this species: climate and resource availability. Specifically, the model predicts that a 50% reduction from metabolically optimal resource supply could constrict their thermal niche by [~]7{degrees}C. We also show that daily and seasonal temperature fluctuations have a relatively minor impact. A conservative increase of 1.5{degrees}C in global temperatures will cause fitness declines for populations in higher climatic regimes, across resource levels. Our results provide new and general insights into factors limiting the distribution of extant Atlantic salmon populations. They also highlight the relative importance of future threats from climatic warming, fluctuations, and changes in resource availability due to land use change.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

The evolutionary age-range size relationship is modulated by insularity and dispersal in plants and animals

Earth is home to millions of plant and animal species, with more than 40 thousand species facing extinction worldwide (Diaz et al. 2019). Species range size is particularly important in this context because it influences extinction risk (Purvis et al. 2000, Gaston & Fuller 2009), but the causes underlying the wide natural variation in range size remain poorly known. Here, we investigate how evolutionary age is related to present-day range size for over 25,000 species of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, reef fishes, and plants. We show that, on average, older species have significantly larger ranges, but the effect of age on range size is modulated by clade, geographical context and dispersal ability. Specifically, age does not affect range size for island species, because islands limit dispersal and hence range size, regardless of species age. Furthermore, species from clades with high dispersal capabilities obtain large ranges faster, thereby further neutralizing the relationship between age and range size. Our results can help supporting global conservation priorities, by showing that species that are young, occupy islands, and/or are dispersal limited often have small ranges and therefore increased extinction risk.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Bacterial responses to complex mixtures of chemical pollutants

Our understanding of how microbes respond to pollutants is almost wholly based on single-species responses to individual chemicals. However, in natural environments, microbes experience the effects of multiple pollutants simultaneously, and their responses to these mixtures of chemicals may not be readily predictable based on their responses to each pollutant in isolation. Here we extended the scope and complexity of previous multi-stressor experiments by assaying the growth of model and non-model strains of bacteria in all 255 combinations of 8 chemical stressors. This approach allowed us to identify fitness effects arising from potential high-order interactions among stressor responses. We found that the bacterial strains responded in different ways to stressor mixtures, which could not be predicted simply from their phylogenetic relatedness. Responses to increasingly complex chemical mixtures were more likely to show a significant deviation from a null model based on the responses to each chemical alone. However, these net responses were mainly driven by lower-order interactions among a small number of chemicals, suggesting a limited role for complex high-order interactions. These results simplify the predictability of microbial populations and communities responding to multiple stressors, paving the way for the development of efficient next-generation eco-toxicological assays.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2022

Biodiversity and Conservation Priority Setting for the Vascular Flora of New Guinea

AimsNew Guinea is one of the worlds most floristically diverse islands, but its plant collection records are very uneven. We aim to identify which areas have the highest diversity of vascular plant genera, and which areas have the highest deforestation risk. Combining these findings we highlight priority regions for research and conservation. LocationNew Guinea Time period1900-2021 Taxa studiedTracheophyta (Vascular plants) MethodsWe obtained collection records and environmental variables and prepared a cost-distance map of New Guinea to indicate accessibility. We modelled the joint distribution of 1,156 genera with the HO_SCPLOWMSCC_SCPLOW package in R to predict biodiversity across space, accounting for collection bias. We combined these results with a genus-level phylogenetic tree to predict phylogenetic endemism. We then modelled deforestation risk with the R-INLA package, using forest clearance data and variables including cost-distance. We compared actual and predicted deforestation, and made predictions for 2021-25. Finally, we developed a combined measure of predicted biodiversity plus deforestation risk. ResultsA mean Spearmans rank correlation of 0.462 was obtained on five-fold cross-validation of the genus biodiversity model; bias-correction shifted the predicted distribution of biodiversity towards western New Guinea, but had less effect on estimates of phylogenetic endemism. Predictions of relative deforestation probability were accurate over 5 and 10 years (Spearman values 0.66 and 0.71). We postulate a deforestation debt to explain the persistence in accuracy. Over time, the areas which survive early deforestation gradually become more rewarding targets and the proportion of at-risk forest lost to clearance accumulates. Main conclusionsWe present a method for rapid assessment of biodiversity and deforestation risk in data-deficient tropical forest regions. Areas of high predicted biodiversity such as the Merauke and Jayapura lowlands are at high near-term risk from commercial deforestation, requiring urgent interventions to record and preserve threatened species.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Species Richness and Speciation Rates for all Terrestrial Animals Emerge from a Synthesis of Ecological Theories

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWThe total number of species on earth and the rate at which new species are created are fundamental questions for ecology, evolution and conservation. These questions have typically been approached separately, despite their obvious interconnection. In this manuscript we approach both questions in conjunction, for all terrestrial animals, which enables a more holistic integration and generates novel emergent predictions. To do this, we combine two previously unconnected bodies of theory: general ecosystem modelling and individual based ecological neutral theory. General ecosystem models provide us with estimated numbers of individual organisms, separated by functional group and body size. Neutral theory, applied within a guild of functionally similar individuals, connects species richness, speciation rate and number of individual organisms. In combination, for terrestrial endotherms where species numbers are known, they provide us with estimates for speciation rates as a function of body size and diet class. Extrapolating the same rates to guilds of ectotherms enables us to estimate the species richness of those groups, including species yet to be described. We find that speciation rates per species per million years decrease with increasing body size. Rates are also higher for carnivores compared to omnivores or herbivores of the same body size. Our estimate for the total number of terrestrial species of animals is in the range 1.03 - 2.92 million species, a value consistent with estimates from previous studies, despite having used a fundamentally new approach. Perhaps what is most remarkable about these results is that they have been obtained using only limited data from larger endotherms and their speciation rates, with the rest of the predictive process being based on mechanistic theory. This work illustrates the potential of a new approach to classic eco-evolutionary questions, while also adding weight to existing predictions. As we now face an era of dramatic biological change, new methods will be needed to mechanistically model global biodiversity at the species and individual organism level. This will be a huge challenge but the combination of general ecosystem models and neutral theory that we introduce here could be the only way to tractably achieve it.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Information Accumulation and Loss as a Foundation for Sound Phylogenetic Biodiversity Metrics

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWPhylogenetic metrics are essential tools used in the study of ecology, evolution and conservation. Phylogenetic diversity (PD) in particular is one of the most prominent measures of biodiversity, and is based on the idea that biological features accumulate along the edges of phylogenetic trees that are summed. We argue that PD and many other phylogenetic biodiversity metrics fail to capture an essential process that we term attrition. Attrition is the gradual loss of features through causes other than extinction. Here we introduce EvoHeritage, a generalisation of PD that is founded on the joint processes of accumulation and attrition of features. We argue that whilst PD measures evolutionary history, EvoHeritage is required to capture a more pertinent subset of evolutionary history including only components that have survived attrition. We show that EvoHeritage is not the same as PD on a tree with scaled edges; instead, accumulation and attrition interact in a more complex non-monophyletic way that cannot be captured by edge lengths alone. This leads us to speculate that the one dimensional edge lengths of classic trees may be insufficiently flexible to capture the nuances of evolutionary processes. We derive a measure of EvoHeritage and show that it elegantly reproduces species richness and PD at opposite ends of a continuum based on the intensity of attrition. We demonstrate the utility of EvoHeritage in ecology as a predictor of community productivity compared with species richness and PD. We also show how EvoHeritage can quantify living fossils and resolve their associated controversy. We suggest how the existing calculus of PD-based metrics and other phylogenetic biodiversity metrics can and should be recast in terms of EvoHeritage accumulation and attrition. Candidate cover image O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=186 HEIGHT=200 SRC="FIGDIR/small/499419v5_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (70K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1a4b8cforg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@16145dborg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1316b1eorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@16fb06b_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG Artistic cover image prepared for this manuscript. The central tree depicts the gain and loss of Evolutionary Heritage (EvoHeritage) along each edge with its many coloured sections. EvoHeritage is proposed as an expansion of the concept of phylogenetic diversity. Around the outside of the tree are species that feature in our two practical applications of the EvoHeritage calculus: mammals identified as living fossils and plants included in our study of community productivity. The cover image was generated by James Rosin-dell following discussions with co-authors. The Caenolestes outline (representing shrew opossums) and Dromiciops outline (monito del monte) used as components of this image are credited to Sarah Werning and provided under a CC BY 3.0 license; both images were recoloured in brown and placed over a shaded circle. All other images used as components are from the public domain. We thank Mina Mincheva for useful feedback on earlier drafts of the cover image.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2022

EDGE2: advancing the prioritisation of threatened evolutionary history for conservation action

The global biodiversity crisis threatens the natural world and its capacity to provide benefits to humans into the future. The conservation of evolutionary history, captured by the measure phylogenetic diversity (PD), is linked to the maintenance of these benefits and future options. The Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) metric has, since 2007, been used to identify species for conservation action that embody large amounts of threatened evolutionary history. In 2017, we convened a workshop to update the EDGE metric to incorporate advances in the field of phylogenetically-informed conservation. Building on that workshop, we devised the metric EDGE2, which we present here. EDGE2 uses a modular, tiered approach to provide priority rankings--and associated measures of uncertainty in both phylogenetic and extinction risk data--for all species in a clade. EDGE2 takes into account the extinction risk of closely-related species to better reflect the contribution a species is expected to make to overall PD in the future. We applied EDGE2 to the worlds mammals to identify an updated list of priority EDGE species and compare the results with the original EDGE approach. Despite similarity in the priority lists produced between EDGE and EDGE2, EDGE2 places greater priority on species with fewer close relatives on the Tree of Life. As we approach a crossroads for global biodiversity policy, EDGE2 exemplifies how academic and applied conservation biologists can collaborate to guide effective priority-setting to conserve the most irreplaceable components of biodiversity upon which humanity depends.

zoology↗

bioRxiv2022

Early tetrapod diversification under neutral theory

Estimates of deep-time biodiversity typically rely on statistical methods to mitigate the impacts of sampling biases in the fossil record. However, these methods are limited by the spatial and temporal scale of the underlying data. Here we use a spatially explicit mechanistic model, based on neutral theory, to test hypotheses of early tetrapod diversity change during the late Carboniferous and early Permian, critical intervals for the diversification of vertebrate life on land. Our neutral simulations suggest, in contrast to previous studies, that increases in early tetrapod diversity were not driven by local endemism following the Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse. We show that apparent changes in face-value diversity can instead be explained by variation in sampling intensity through time. Our results further demonstrate the importance of accounting for sampling biases in analyses of the fossil record and demonstrate the vast potential of mechanistic models, including neutral models, for testing hypotheses in palaeobiology.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Tropical forest dynamics correspond to fair games in economic theory of financial markets

Ecological and economic systems both comprise of autonomous adaptive agents. It is thus possible that similar mechanisms determine the organization of both these complex systems. Indeed several economic theories have already been successfully applied in an ecological context. Here we show that efficient market theory in economics, where future earnings are distributed between competitors by a fair game, corresponds to fitness-equalizing mechanisms of coexistence in ecology. In contrast to stabilizing mechanisms, which promote coexistence by giving each species an equilibrium abundance that is resilient to perturbations, equalizing mechanisms promote coexistence without such resilience by minimizing the net fitness differences between species. However, identifying stabilizing and equalizing mechanisms from the short time-series data that are typically available in ecology is challenging. We used techniques from economics that are applied to collections of short time-series from a system. We found that observed species abundance dynamics in a neotropical forest are generally in agreement with efficient market theory implying a dominant role of equalizing mechanisms, which finding quantifies and supports what was generally believed about that specific forest system. Our study highlights that complex systems from ecology and economics share common features suggesting the possibility of further synergy between ecology and economics in future.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Detecting the ecological footprint of selection

The structure of communities is influenced by many ecological and evolutionary processes, but the way this manifests in classic biodiversity patterns often remains unclear. Here, we aim to distinguish the ecological footprint of selection - through competition or environmental filtering - from that of neutral processes that are invariant to species identity. We build on existing Massive Eco-evolutionary Synthesis Simulations (MESS), which uses information from three biodiversity axes - species abundances, genetic diversity, and trait variation - to distinguish between mechanistic processes. In order to correctly detect and characterise competition, we add a new and more realistic form of competition that explicitly compares the traits of each pair of individuals. Our results are qualitatively different to those of previous work in which competition is based on the distance of each individuals trait to the community mean. We find that our new form of competition is easier to identify in empirical data compared to the alternatives. This is especially true when trait data are available and used in the inference procedure. Our findings hint that signatures in empirical data previously attributed to neutrality may in fact be the result of pairwise-acting selective forces. We conclude that gathering more different types of data, together with more advanced mechanistic models and inference as done here, could be the key to unravelling the mechanisms of community assembly.

ecology↗