Biology subjects

Rosa, I. M.

Publications and source records attributed to Rosa, I. M..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2021

Deforestation projections imply range-wide population decline for critically endangered Bornean orangutan

Assessing where wildlife populations are at risk from future habitat loss is particularly important for land-use planning and avoiding biodiversity declines. Combining projections of future deforestation with species density information provides an improved way to anticipate such declines. Using the endemic and critically endangered Bornean orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus) as a case study we applied a spatio-temporally explicit deforestation model to forest loss data from 2001-2017 and projected future impacts on orangutans to the 2030s. Our projections point to continued deforestation across the island, amounting to a loss of forest habitat for 26,200 (CI: 19,500-34,000) orangutans. Populations currently persisting in forests gazetted for industrial timber and oil palm concessions, or unprotected forests outside of concessions, were projected to experience the worst losses within the next 15 years, amounting to 15,400 (CI: 12,000-20,500) individuals. Lowland forests with high orangutan densities in West and Central Kalimantan were also projected to be at high risk from deforestation, irrespective of land-use. In contrast, most protected areas and logging concessions currently harboring orangutans will continue to face low levels of deforestation. Our business-as-usual projections indicate the importance of protected areas, efforts to prevent the conversion of logged forests for the survival of highly vulnerable wildlife, and protecting orangutan habitat in plantation landscapes. The modeling framework could be expanded to other species with available density or occurrence data. Our findings highlight that species conservation should not only attempt to act on the current situation, but also be adapt to changes in drivers to be effective.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity. One Sentence SummaryDevelopment pathways exist that allow for a reduction of the rates of biodiversity loss from land-use change and improvement in regulating services but climate change poses an increasing challenge.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Pathways of human development threaten biomes protection and their remaining natural vegetation

Protected areas have been one of the most commonly applied conservation tools to prevent ecosystem degradation. International conservation targets have been created to incentivize widespread expansion of protected area networks, but this call might clash with expected future land use change. Here we investigated how future land use trajectories (2015-2090), representing a wide range of plausible future scenarios would impact the remaining areas of primary vegetation under different protection levels across the worlds biomes. We then highlight areas under greater risk of conflict between conservation (highly protected) and land use expansion (high projected change), and areas where these two can better co-exist (lower protection with high projected change and/or high protection with low projected change).\n\nWhile the most positive pathway of development led to the least loss of primary vegetation globally, this was not observed in all biomes. Further, we found no significant correlation between existing extent of protection and average proportion of vegetation loss. Mediterranean Forests, Woodlands & Scrub had the largest projected loss occurring in the highest protected areas. Tropical Forests in Central Africa and the Boreal Forests of North Euro-Asia and Canada emerge as the areas where most projected change occurs, and existing protection is still low. Areas in India and Southeast Asia emerge as potential areas for intervention as they have significant projected loss of primary vegetation, and considerably low protection.\n\nOur results can help inform policy and decision-makers to prevent such conflicts and support the development of management actions. These policy and management actions should target conservation in areas under expected great pressure of change with high ecological value (e.g., composed mainly by primary vegetation), but still not protected. This study also opens the discussion to the future of current protected areas and to the potential to expand the existing network of protected areas.

ecology↗