Biology subjects

Rondinini, C.

Publications and source records attributed to Rondinini, C..

14 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Global threat abatement potential for terrestrial vertebrates

1.AimThe Species Threat Abatement and Restoration (STAR) metric was developed to support setting and measuring progress towards science-based targets for species conservation, in alignment with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. The STAR metric quantifies the potential reduction in species global extinction risk achievable through actions to abate threats (START) and restore habitat (STARR). The STAR metric is used across multiple sectors to assess contributions to nature-positive species outcomes and implement action for biodiversity. Here we present a substantially enhanced global estimate of START for terrestrial vertebrates. Developed in response to user demand, this work integrates advancements in methodology and data quality, increased spatial resolution, and addition of reptile species. LocationGlobal Time PeriodCurrent Major taxa studiedTerrestrial vertebrates MethodsSTART was estimated at 1km2 resolution for 9,100 species of threatened and Near Threatened birds, mammals, amphibians and reptiles, using IUCN Red List assessments (version 2025-1) and area of habitat (AOH) maps generated using an advanced data-driven methodology and satellite-derived land-cover data. AOH maps were validated using a two-stage protocol using species observation data. ResultsThe six countries with the highest estimated START scores, and therefore the largest individual potential to reduce global extinction risk via tackling threats nationally were Brazil, Madagascar, Indonesia, Mexico, Ecuador and Colombia (each contributing over 5% of global estimated START). The threat with the greatest individual potential to reduce extinction risk was annual and perennial non-timber crops (21.2% of global START). Main conclusionsTargeted actions to tackle a few high-impact threats in a few discrete locations, and cumulative effort across multiple areas with lower individual potential, are both required to meaningfully reduce species extinction risk through threat abatement. This global scale estimation of START enables consistent scoping of conservation opportunity over large areas and provides the critical initial data to support planning and action.

zoology↗

bioRxiv2025

Improving the classification of wildlife conservation status to support nature protection in the European Union

Ensuring that species of conservation concern achieve favorable conservation status (FCS) is central to European Union (EU) biodiversity conservation targets. A key criterion for FCS is exceeding the favorable reference range (FRR)--the range extent needed for long-term species stability and full ecological variation. However, due to data limitations, FRRs are often unknown, undermining their applicability. We developed a machine-learning approach to estimate and standardize FRRs across the EU. Applied to amphibians, mammals, and reptiles, our method provided FRRs for 99.5% of species of conservation concern, compared to 17.5% previously available (with satisfactory modelling performance: R2 0.75). We reassessed conservation status using the estimated FRRs, finding that species in FCS (34.8%) are notably fewer than reported in official documentation (69.1%). The average proportional distance to FRR for species in unfavorable conservation status is -64.4%. Our approach may support periodic FCS reassessments and help refine the targets of EU conservation policies.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Spatial instability affects Key Biodiversity Areas scoping for bumblebees across three decades

Identifying potential Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) using species occurrence records is crucial for integrating hyperdiverse taxa, such as insects, into the KBA network. To ensure the KBA network supports effective conservation decision-making, established KBAs need to be reassessed every 8 to 12 years. Realistically, reassessments for very high numbers of species will be based also on opportunistic occurrence points. However, how changes in species distribution data availability and completeness in different time periods influence the spatial stability of potential KBAs over time has not been investigated in any taxa yet. We performed potential KBA assessments for 28 species and subspecies of bumblebees in Italy using an expert-validated dataset of distribution data collected between 1990 and 2023, using 10-year cumulative and progressive time series. Our findings reveal that KBA scoping for species with distributional knowledge gaps does not ensure stability and reliability over time. Potential KBA turnover percentages between different time periods can be high ([~=]133%). While only seven species/subspecies could trigger potential KBAs, their turnover percentage ranged between 28.5% and 50%. We highlight the need for standardized and strategic monitoring of established KBAs and species distributions between reassessments. We also discuss strategies to optimize monitoring plans under resource constraints.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Narratives for positive nature futures in Europe

O_LIThe Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a novel tool for the development of positive scenarios centred on the relationship of nature and people, emphasising biodiversity as part of the solution to environmental challenges across various spatial and temporal scales, explicitly addressing a plurality of values for nature. C_LIO_LIIn this work, we describe the process that has led to the formulation of continental-scale positive narratives for conservation in Europe based on the NFF and its value perspectives (Nature for Nature; Nature for Society; Nature as Culture), through a stakeholder group elicitation. We focused on 6 topics in the narratives: Nature Protection and Restoration; Forestry; Freshwater Ecosystems; Urban Systems; Agriculture, and Energy. We analyse differences and similarities among the narratives across these topics. C_LIO_LIWe develop three novel Nature Futures narratives for Europe with contrasting perspectives and priorities for the six topics. Within the EU socioeconomic trends and policy framework, common solutions that simultaneously tackle biodiversity conservation and instrumental and cultural Natures Contributions to People (NCP) provision emerged. C_LIO_LIThis set of narratives may integrate preferences concerning EU-level conservation targets and plausible socio-ecological development pathways, supporting the modelling of positive scenarios for nature that can be crucial in guiding policy decisions towards recovery of nature. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

A synthesis on alien mammals threatened in their native range

Many alien species are safe in their native ranges; however, some are threatened, posing a challenging conundrum for conservation and invasion science. We focused on alien threatened mammals, examining their distribution, pathways, threats, and conservation strategies. We also reassessed their IUCN Red List category to evaluate the effect of including alien populations in extinction risk assessments. Of 242 alien mammals, we identified 41 aliens that are threatened, classified as critically endangered (19%), endangered (27%), or vulnerable (54%). They were primarily introduced for hunting and exchanged within Asia, with introduced ranges concentrated in eastern Australia. They were subject to multiple threats, most notably biological resource use. Including alien populations in the categorization assessments reduces extinction risk of 22% of the species. We highlighted the conservation value of alien populations for threatened mammals. However, conservation managers and extinction risk assessors shall carefully consider their use, to avoid negative impacts on native biodiversity.

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bioRxiv2023

An automated approach for systematic detection of Key Biodiversity Areas

The new Key Biodiversity Areas (KBA) standard is an important method for identifying regions of the planet hosting unique biodiversity. KBAs are identified through the implementation of threshold-based criteria that can be applied to any target species and region. Efficient methods to rapidly assess the existence of potential KBAs in different areas of the planet are still missing, although they are needed to accelerate the KBA identification process for large numbers of species globally. We developed a methodology to scan geographical regions and detect potential KBAs under multiple criteria. We tested the methodology on 59 species of reptiles and amphibians in Italy through the application of selected KBA criteria. Potential KBAs were identified for multiple species under most criteria, covering 1.4% to 12% of the study area, depending on analytical settings. Unit size used to identify KBAs played an important role in shaping the distribution of potential KBAs, also affecting the degree of overlap between areas triggered by different criteria. New potential KBAs identified in this study are only partially nested within current KBAs in Italy (previously identified for birds) and within the national protected areas.

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bioRxiv2022

Area of Habitat maps for the world's terrestrial birds and mammals

Area of Habitat (AOH) is the habitat available to a species, that is, habitat within its range. It complements a geographic range map for a species by showing potential occupancy and reducing commission errors. AOH maps are produced by subtracting areas considered unsuitable for the species from their range map, using information on each species associations with habitat and elevation. We present AOH maps for 5,481 terrestrial mammal and 10,651 terrestrial bird species (including 1,816 migratory bird species for which we present separate maps for the resident, breeding and non-breeding areas). Our maps have a resolution of 100 m. On average, AOH covered 66{+/-}28% of the range maps for mammals and 64{+/-}27% for birds. The AOH maps were validated independently, following a novel two-step methodology: a modelling approach to identify outliers and a species-level approach based on point localities. We used AOH maps to produce global maps of the species richness of mammals, birds, globally threatened mammals and globally threatened birds.

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bioRxiv2021

A validation standard for Area of Habitat maps for terrestrial birds and mammals

Area of Habitat (AOH) is a deductive model which maps the distribution of suitable habitat at suitable altitudes for a species inside its broad geographical range. AOH maps have been validated using presence-only data for small subsets of species for different taxonomic groups, but no standard validation method exists when absence data are not available. We develop a novel two-step validation protocol for AOH which includes first a model-based evaluation of model prevalence (i.e, the proportion of suitable habitat within a species range), and second a validation using species point localities (presence-only) data. We applied the protocol to AOH maps of terrestrial birds and mammals. In the first step we built logistic regression models to predict expected model prevalence (the proportion of the range retained as AOH) as a function of each species elevation range, mid-point of elevation range, number of habitats, realm and, for birds, seasonality. AOH maps with large difference between observed and predicted model prevalence were identified as outliers and used to identify a number of sources of systematic error which were then corrected when possible. For the corrected AOH, only 1.7% of AOH maps for birds and 2.3% of AOH maps for mammals were flagged as outliers in terms of the difference between their observed and predicted model prevalence. In the second step we calculated point prevalence, the proportion of point localities of a species falling in pixels coded as suitable in the AOH map. We used 48,336,141 point localities for 4889 bird species and 107,061 point localities for 420 mammals. Where point prevalence exceeded model prevalence, the AOH was a better reflection of species distribution than random. We also found that 4689 out of 4889 (95.9%) AOH maps for birds, and 399 out of 420 (95.0%) AOH maps for mammals were better than random. Possible reasons for the poor performance of a small proportion of AOH maps are discussed.

zoology↗

bioRxiv2021

A habitat class to land cover translation model for mapping Area of Habitat of terrestrial vertebrates

Area of Habitat (AOH) is defined as the habitat available to a species, that is, habitat within its range and is produced by subtracting areas of unsuitable land cover and elevation from the range. Habitat associations are documented using the IUCN Habitats Classification Scheme, and unvalidated expert opinion has been used so far to match habitat to land-cover classes generating a source of uncertainty in AOH maps. We develop a data-driven method to translate IUCN habitat classes to land-cover based on point locality data for 6,986 species of terrestrial mammals, birds, amphibians and reptiles. We extracted the land-cover class at each point locality and matched it to the IUCN habitat class(es) assigned to each species occurring there. Then we modelled each land cover class as a function of IUCN habitat using logistic regression models. The resulting odds ratios were used to assess the strength of the association of each habitat land-cover class. We then compared the performance of our data-driven model with those from a published expert knowledge translation table. The results show that some habitats (e.g. forest and desert) could be more confidently assigned to land-cover classes than others (e.g. wetlands and artificial). We calculated the association between habitat classes and land-cover classes as a continuous variable, but to map AOH, which is in the form of a binary presence/absence, it is necessary to apply a threshold of association. This can be chosen by the user according to the required balance between omission and commission errors. We demonstrate that a data-driven translation model and expert knowledge perform equally well, but the model provides greater standardization, objectivity and repeatability. Furthermore, this approach allows greater flexibility in the use of the results and allows uncertainty to be quantified. Our model can be developed regionally or for different taxonomic groups.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Invasive alien mammals of European Union concern

O_LIBiological invasions have emerged as one of the main drivers of biodiversity change and decline, and numbers of alien species are rapidly rising. The European Union established a dedicated regulation to limit the impacts of invasive alien species (IAS), which is focused on a Union List of IAS of particular concern. However, no previous study has specifically addressed the ecology of invasive alien mammals included in the Union List. C_LIO_LIWe performed a systematic review of published literature on these species. We retrieved 262 studies dealing with 16 species, and we complemented these with the most up-to-date information extracted from global databases on IAS. C_LIO_LIWe show that most of the study species reached Europe as pets that escaped from captivity or were intentionally released. On average, 1.2 species new first records/year were documented in European countries in the period 1981-2020, and most species are still expanding their alien ranges colonising neighbouring territories. France, Germany, Italy, and The Netherlands are the most invaded nations, and the muskrat (Ondatra zibethicus), the raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides), and the American mink (Neovison vison) are the most widespread species, having invaded at least 27 countries each. Invasive mammals of European Union concern are threatening native biodiversity and human well-being: worryingly, 81.3% of the study species are implicated in the epidemiological cycle of zoonotic pathogens. C_LIO_LIContaining the secondary spread to further countries is of paramount importance to avoid the establishment of new populations of invasive mammals and the related impacts on native communities, ecosystem services, and human health. C_LIO_LIOur results offer the most updated compendium on the ecology of invasive mammals of European Union concern, that can be used to assist environmental policies, identify and subsequently fill knowledge gaps, and inform stakeholders. C_LI GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=143 SRC="FIGDIR/small/440832v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (57K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@934bcborg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@551036org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@9b519aorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@10a7699_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG Graphical abstract: Invasive alien mammals of European Union concern. The figure illustrates how the introduction of a species in few new areas, followed by a lag phase of adaptation and sometimes enriched by further subsequent releases, can rapidly lead to the colonisation of large parts of a continent. On the top left, a heat map with species richness in countries of Europe. On the top right, a word cloud with the main keywords of our literature search and some of the study species names. On the bottom left, four out of 16 study species: in clockwise order, the raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides), the muskrat (Ondatra zibethicus), the American mink (Neovison vison), and the raccoon (Procyon lotor). On the bottom right, the temporal distribution of the first records of the study species in the countries of Europe.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity. One Sentence SummaryDevelopment pathways exist that allow for a reduction of the rates of biodiversity loss from land-use change and improvement in regulating services but climate change poses an increasing challenge.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Drivers of change in the realised climatic niche of terrestrial mammal species

The breadth of a species climatic niche is an important ecological trait that allows adaptation to climate change, but human activities drive niche erosion. Life-history traits, such as dispersal ability and reproductive speed, instead allow species to cope with climate change. But how do these characteristics act in combination with human pressure to determine niche change? Here we investigate the patterns and drivers of change in the realised climatic niche of 589 terrestrial mammal species. Our goal is to disentangle the impacts of humans, climate change, and life history. We calibrated the past and present climatic niches of each species by considering past climatic conditions (Mid Holocene) within their pre-human impact distributions, and current climatic conditions within the current distributions. Depending on the relationship between past and current niche, we defined four categories of change: "shrink", "shift", "stable", and "expand". We found over half of the species in our sample have undergone niche shrink, while only 15-18% of species retained a stable niche. After controlling for biogeography, climatic factors were the strongest correlates of species niche change, followed by anthropogenic pressure and species life history. Factors that increased the probability of niche shrink include: overall climatic instability in the area (both intermediate or high), large body mass, long gestation time, highly carnivorous or herbivorous diets, historical land-use change, and current human population density. We identified the conditions under which species are less likely to maintain their niche breadth, potentially losing adaptation capacity under climate change. Species with these characteristics require interventions that facilitate natural dispersal or assisted colonisation, to survive to rapidly changing climates.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

How many bird and mammal extinctions has recent conservation action prevented?

Aichi Target 12 of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) aims to prevent extinctions of known threatened species. To measure its success, we used a Delphi expert elicitation method to estimate the number of bird and mammal species whose extinctions were prevented by conservation action in 1993 - 2020 (the lifetime of the CBD) and 2010 - 2020 (the timing of Aichi Target 12). We found that conservation prevented 21-32 bird and 7-16 mammal extinctions since 1993, and 9-18 bird and 2-7 mammal extinctions since 2010. Many remain highly threatened, and may still become extinct in the near future. Nonetheless, given that ten bird and five mammal species did go extinct (or are strongly suspected to) since 1993, extinction rates would have been 2.9-4.2 times greater without conservation action. While policy commitments have fostered significant conservation achievements, future biodiversity action needs to be scaled up to avert additional extinctions.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Abstract.To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e. natures contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenarios selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem service models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modelling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modelling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

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