Biology subjects

Rodriguez-Barraquer, I.

Publications and source records attributed to Rodriguez-Barraquer, I..

5 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2018

Taking sharper pictures of malaria with CAMERAs: Combined Antibodies to Measure Exposure Recency Assays

Antibodies directed against malaria parasites are easy and inexpensive to measure but remain an underutilized surveillance tool due to a lack of consensus on what to measure and how to interpret results. High throughput screening of antibodies from well-characterized cohorts offers a means to substantially improve existing assays by rationally choosing the most informative sets of responses and analytical methods. Recent data suggest that high-resolution data on malaria exposure can be obtained from a small number of samples by measuring a handful of properly chosen antibody responses. In this review, we will discuss how standardized multi-antibody assays can be developed and efficiently integrated into existing surveillance activities, with great potential to greatly augment the breadth and quality of information available to direct and monitor malaria control and elimination efforts.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Heterogeneous exposure and hotspots for malaria vectors at three study sites in Uganda

Heterogeneity in malaria transmission has household, temporal, and spatial components. These factors are relevant for improving the efficiency of malaria control by targeting heterogeneity. To quantify variation, we analyzed mosquito counts from entomological surveillance conducted at three study sites in Uganda that varied in malaria transmission intensity. Using a Bayesian zero-inflated negative binomial model, validated via a comprehensive simulation study, we quantified household differences in malaria exposure and examined its spatial distribution. We found that housing quality explained large variation among households in mosquito counts. In each site, there was evidence for hot and cold spots, spatial patterns associated with urbanicity, elevation, or other environmental covariates. We also found some differences in the hotspots in rainy vs. dry seasons or before vs. after control. This work identified methods for quantifying heterogeneity in malaria exposure and offered a critical evaluation of spatially targeting interventions at malaria hotspots.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

What lies beneath: a spatial mosaic of Zika virus transmission in the 2015-2016 epidemic in Colombia

Time series data provide a crucial window into infectious disease dynamics, yet their utility is often limited by the spatially aggregated form in which they are presented. When working with time series data, violating the implicit assumption of homogeneous dynamics below the scale of spatial aggregation could bias inferences about underlying processes. We tested this assumption in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia, where time series of weekly case reports were available at national, departmental, and municipal scales. First, we performed a descriptive analysis, which showed that the timing of departmental-level epidemic peaks varied by three months and that departmental-level estimates of the time-varying reproduction number, R(t), showed patterns that were distinct from a national-level estimate. Second, we applied a classification algorithm to six features of proportional cumulative incidence curves, which showed that variability in epidemic duration, the length of the epidemic tail, and consistency with a cumulative normal density curve made the greatest contributions to distinguishing groups. Third, we applied this classification algorithm to data simulated with a stochastic transmission model, which showed that group assignments were consistent with simulated differences in the basic reproduction number, R0. This result, along with associations between spatial drivers of transmission and group assignments based on observed data, suggests that the classification algorithm is capable of detecting differences in temporal patterns that are associated with differences in underlying drivers of incidence patterns. Overall, this diversity of temporal patterns at local scales underscores the value of spatially disaggregated time series data.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Quantification of anti-parasite and anti-disease immunity to malaria as a function of age and exposure

Malaria immunity is complex and multi-faceted, and fundamental gaps remain in our understanding of how it develops. Here, we use detailed clinical and entomological data from three parallel cohort studies conducted across the malaria transmission spectrum in Uganda to quantify the development of immunity against symptomatic Plasmodium falciparum as a function of age and transmission intensity. We focus on: anti-parasite immunity (i.e; ability to control parasite densities) and anti-disease immunity (i.e; ability to tolerate higher parasite densities without fever). Our findings suggest a strong effect of age on both types of immunity, that remains significant after adjusting for cumulative exposure. They also show a non-linear effect of transmission intensity, where children experiencing the lowest transmission appear to develop immunity faster than those experiencing higher transmission. These findings illustrate how anti-parasite and anti-disease immunity develop in parallel, reducing the probability of experiencing symptomatic malaria upon each subsequent P. falciparum infection.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Preliminary results of models to predict areas in the Americas with increased likelihood of Zika virus transmission in 2017.

Numerous Zika virus vaccines are being developed. However, identifying sites to evaluate the efficacy of a Zika virus vaccine is challenging due to the general decrease in Zika virus activity. We compare results from three different modeling approaches to estimate areas that may have increased relative risk of Zika virus transmission during 2017. The analysis focused on eight priority countries (i.e., Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, and Peru). The models projected low incidence rates during 2017 for all locations in the priority countries but identified several subnational areas that may have increased relative risk of Zika virus transmission in 2017. Given the projected low incidence of disease, the total number of participants, number of study sites, or duration of study follow-up may need to be increased to meet the efficacy study endpoints.

epidemiology↗