Biology subjects

Rocke, T. E.

Publications and source records attributed to Rocke, T. E..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2023

Incorporating environmental heterogeneity and observation effort to predict host distribution and viral spillover from a bat reservoir.

Predicting the spatial occurrence of wildlife is a major challenge for ecology and management. In Latin America, knowledge of the true number and locations of vampire bat colonies precludes informed allocation of measures intended to limit lethal rabies spillover to humans and livestock. We inferred the complete spatial distribution of vampire bat roosts while accounting for observation effort and environmental covariates by fitting a Log Gaussian Cox Process model to the locations of 563 roosts in three regions of Peru. Our model explained 47% of the variance in the observed roost distribution and identified landscape correlates of roost establishment. Our model estimated that 1,795 roosts (76%) remain undiscovered and identified hotspots of undetected roosts in currently rabies-free areas, implying high risk for viral incursion. Incorporating the locations of undetected roosts improved spatial predictions of rabies spillover to livestock, revealed areas with disproportionate underreporting to surveillance systems, and indicated a higher rabies burden than previously estimated. We provide a robust approach to infer the distribution of a mostly unobserved bat reservoir that can inform strategies to prevent the re-emergence of an important zoonosis.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

SEX-BIASED INFECTIONS SCALE TO POPULATION IMPACTS FOR AN EMERGING WILDLIFE DISEASE

Demographic factors are fundamental in shaping infectious disease dynamics. Aspects of populations that create structure, like age and sex, can affect patterns of transmission, infection intensity and population outcomes. However, studies rarely link these processes from individual to population-scale effects. Moreover, the mechanisms underlying demographic differences in disease are frequently unclear. Here, we explore sex-biased infections for a multi-host fungal disease of bats, white-nose syndrome, and link disease-associated mortality between sexes, the distortion of sex ratios, and the potential mechanisms underlying sex differences in infection. We collected data on host traits, infection intensity, and survival of five bat species at 42 sites across seven years. We found females were more infected than males for all five species. Females also had lower apparent survival over winter and accounted for a smaller proportion of populations over time. Notably, female-biased infections were evident by early hibernation and likely driven by sex-based differences in autumn mating behavior. Male bats were more active during autumn which likely reduced replication of the cool-growing fungus. Higher disease impacts in female bats may have cascading effects on bat populations beyond the hibernation season by limiting recruitment and increasing the risk of Allee effects.

ecology↗