Biology subjects

Retkute, R.

Publications and source records attributed to Retkute, R..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2018

Robustness of local control strategies under modelling uncertainties: the 2004 avian infuenza H5N1 outbreak in Thailand

The Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 virus persists in many countries and has been circulating in poultry, wild birds. In addition, the virus has emerged in other species and frequent zoonotic spillover events indicate that there remains a significant risk to human health. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of the disease in the poultry industry to develop a more comprehensive knowledge of the risks of transmission and to establish a better distribution of resources when implementing control. In this paper, we develop a set of mathematical models that simulate the spread of HPAI H5N1 in the poultry industry in Thailand, utilising data from the 2004 epidemic. The model that incorporates the intensity of duck farming when assessing transmision risk provides the best fit to the spatiotemporal characteristics of the observed outbreak, implying that intensive duck farming drives transmission of HPAI in Thailand. We also extend our models using a sequential model fitting approach to explore the ability of the models to be used in \"real time\" during novel disease outbreaks. We conclude that, whilst predictions of epidemic size are estimated poorly in the early stages of disease outbreaks, the model accurately predicts the preferred control policy that should be deployed to minimise the impact of the disease.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Modeling of DNA replication in rapidly growing bacteria with one and two replication origins

In rapidly growing bacteria initiation of DNA replication occurs at intervals shorter than the time required for completing genome duplication, leading to overlapping rounds of replication. We propose a mathematical model of DNA replication defined by the periodicity of replication initiation. Our model predicts that a steeper gradient of the replication profile is to be expected in origin proximal regions due to the overlapping rounds of synthesis. By comparing our model with experimental data from a strain with an additional replication origin, we predict defined alterations to replication parameters: (i) a reduced fork velocity when there were twice as many forks as normal; (ii) a slower fork speed if forks move in a direction opposite to normal, in line with head-on replication-transcription collisions being a major obstacle for fork progression; (iii) slower cell doubling for a double origin strain compared to wild-type cells; and (iv) potentially an earlier initiation of replication at the ectopic origin than at the natural origin, which, however, does not a{dot}ect the overall time required to complete synthesis.

systems biology↗

bioRxiv2018

The effectiveness of glass beads for plating cell cultures

Cell plating, the spreading out of a liquid suspension of cells on a surface followed by colony growth, is a common laboratory procedure in microbiology. Despite this, the exact impact of its parameters on colony growth has not been extensively studied. A common protocol involves the shaking of glass beads within a petri dish containing solid growth media. We investigated the effects of multiple parameters in this protocol - the number of beads, the shape of movement, and the number of movements. Standard suspensions of Escherichia coli were spread while varying these parameters to assess their impact on colony growth. Results were assessed by a variety of metrics - the number of colonies, the mean distance between closest colonies, and the variability and uniformity of their spatial distribution. Finally, we devised a mathematical model of shifting billiard to explain the heterogeneities in the observed spatial patterns. Exploring the parameters that affect the most fundamental techniques in microbiology allows us to better understand their function, giving us the ability to precisely control their outputs for our exact needs.

biophysics↗

bioRxiv2017

Three-dimensional plant architecture and sunlit-shaded dynamics: A stochastic model to enable high-throughput physiological analysis

Background and AimsDiurnal changes in solar position and intensity combined with the structural complexity of plant architecture result in highly variable and dynamic light patterns within the plant canopy. This affects productivity through the complex ways that photosynthesis responds to changes in light intensity. Current methods to characterise light dynamics, such as ray-tracing, are able to produce data with excellent spatio-temporal resolution but are computationally intensive and the resultant data are complex and high dimensional. This necessitates development of more economical models for summarising the data and for simulating realistic light patterns over the course of a day.\n\nMethodsHigh-resolution reconstructions of field-grown plants are assembled in various configurations to form canopies, and a forward ray-tracing algorithm is applied to the canopies to compute light dynamics at high (1 minute) temporal resolution. From the ray-tracer output, the sunlit or shaded state for each patch on the plants is determined, and these data are used to develop a novel stochastic model for the sunlit-shaded patterns. The model is designed to be straightforward to fit to data using maximum likelihood estimation, and fast to simulate from.\n\nKey ResultsFor a wide range of contrasting 3D canopies, the stochastic model is able to summarise, and replicate in simulations, key features of the light dynamics. When light patterns simulated from the stochastic model are used as input to a model of photoinhibition, the predicted reduction in carbon gain is similar to that from calculations based on the (extremely costly) ray-tracer data.\n\nConclusionsThe model provides a way to summarise highly complex data in a small number of parameters, and a cost-effective way to simulate realistic light patterns. Simulations from the model will be particularly useful for feeding into larger-scale photosynthesis models for calculating how light dynamics affects the photosynthetic productivity of canopies.

plant biology↗