Biology subjects

Rees, E.

Publications and source records attributed to Rees, E..

17 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2025

Single-cell profiling of human bone marrow reveals multiple myeloma progression is accompanied by an increase in CD56bright bone marrow resident NK cells.

Natural killer (NK) cells play a key role in the innate immune response against tumour progression. While the immune microenvironment in multiple myeloma (MM) becomes increasingly dysfunctional during disease evolution, little is known about changes in the NK cell compartment. Using primary samples from clinical trial patients, we performed detailed phenotypic analyses of bone marrow mononuclear cells from MGUS, SMM, and newly diagnosed MM patients. We found that disease progression is associated with an increase in CD56bright NK cells with a dynamic positive association between this NK cell subset and local tumour burden. We generated a large single-cell RNA sequencing dataset of >100,000 NK cells from healthy donor individuals and plasma cell disorder patients and identify a bone marrow specific CD56bright-like NK cell population (BM-NK) that is enriched in the marrow of MM patients. These findings highlight the evolution of the NK-cell compartment in MM and suggest a role for BM-resident CD56bright NK cells with impaired cytotoxicity in promoting immune evasion.

cancer biology↗

bioRxiv2021

FAN1 nuclease activity affects CAG expansion and age at onset of Huntington's disease

The age at onset of motor symptoms in Huntingtons disease (HD) is driven by HTT CAG repeat length but modified by other genes. We used exome sequencing of 683 HD patients with extremes of onset or phenotype relative to CAG length to identify rare variants associated with clinical effect. We identified damaging coding variants in candidate modifier genes from prior genome-wide association studies associated with altered HD onset or severity. Variants in FAN1 clustered in its DNA-binding and nuclease domains and were associated predominantly with earlier onset HD. Nuclease activities of these variants correlated with residual age at motor onset of HD. Mutating endogenous FAN1 to a nuclease-inactive form in an induced pluripotent stem cell model of HD led to rates of CAG expansion comparable to those observed with complete FAN1 knock out. Together, these data implicate FAN1 nuclease activity in slowing somatic repeat expansion and hence onset of HD.

neuroscience↗

bioRxiv2020

Schizophrenia, autism spectrum disorders and developmental disorders share specific disruptive coding mutations

Genes enriched for rare disruptive coding variants in schizophrenia overlap those in which disruptive mutations are associated with neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs), particularly autism spectrum disorders and intellectual disability. However, it is unclear whether this implicates the same specific variants, or even variants with the same functional effects on shared risk genes. Here, we show that de novo mutations in schizophrenia are generally of the same functional category as those that confer risk for NDDs, and that the specific de novo mutations in NDDs are enriched in schizophrenia. These findings indicate that, in part, NDDs and schizophrenia have shared molecular aetiology, and therefore likely overlapping pathophysiology. We also observe pleiotropic effects for variants known to be pathogenic for several syndromic developmental disorders, suggesting that schizophrenia should be included among the phenotypes associated with these mutations. Collectively, our findings support the hypothesis that at least some forms of schizophrenia lie within a continuum of neurodevelopmental disorders.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2020

Machine learning and dengue forecasting: Comparing random forests and artificial neural networks for predicting dengue burdens at the national sub-national scale in Colombia

The robust estimate and forecast capability of random forests (RF) has been widely recognized, however this ensemble machine learning method has not been widely used in mosquito-borne disease forecasting. In this study, two sets of RF models were developed for the national and departmental levels in Colombia to predict weekly dengue cases at 12-weeks ahead. A national model based on artificial neural networks (ANN) was also developed and used as a comparator to the RF models. The various predictors included historic dengue cases, satellite-derived estimates for vegetation, precipitation, and air temperature, population counts, income inequality, and education. Our RF model trained on the national data was more accurate for department-specific weekly dengue cases estimation compared to a local model trained only on the departments data. Additionally, the forecast errors of the national RF model were smaller to those of the national ANN model and were increased with the forecast horizon increasing from one-week ahead (mean absolute error, MAE: 5.80; root mean squared error, RMSE: 11.10) to 12-weeks ahead (MAE: 13.38; RMSE: 26.82). There was considerable variation in the relative importance of predictors dependent on forecast horizon. The environmental and meteorological predictors were relatively important for short-term dengue forecast horizons while socio-demographic predictors were relevant for longer-term forecast horizons. This study showed the potential of RF in dengue forecasting with also demonstrating the feasibility of using a national model to forecast at finer spatial scales. Furthermore, sociodemographic predictors are important to include to capture longer-term trends in dengue. Author summaryDengue virus has the highest disease burden of all mosquito-borne viral diseases, infecting 390 million people annually in 128 countries. Forecasting is an important warning mechanism that can help with proactive planning and response for clinical and public health services. In this study, we compare two different machine learning approaches to dengue forecasting: random forest (RF) and neural networks (NN). National and local (departmental-level) models were compared and used to predict dengue cases in the future. The results showed that the counts of future dengue cases were more accurately estimated by RF than by NN. It was also shown that environmental and meteorological predictors were more important for forecast accuracy for shorter-term forecasts while socio-demographic predictors were more important for longer-term forecasts. Finally, the national model applied to local data was more accurate in dengue forecasting compared to the local model. This research contributes to the field of disease forecasting and highlights different considerations for future forecasting studies.

immunology↗

bioRxiv2019

Meta-analysis of Scandinavian Schizophrenia Exomes

Rare genetic variants may play a prominent role in schizophrenia. We report on the to date largest whole exome sequencing study of schizophrenia case-control samples from related populations and combine with other available sequence data, analysing in total 34,084 individuals (14,302 cases). Three genes showed significant association at FDR < 0.10 (SETD1A, TAF13 and MKI67) and gene-set analyses highlighted the involvement of the synaptome and excitatory neurons, and demonstrated shared architecture with high-functioning autism.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2019

Variation in host home range decreases rabies vaccination effectiveness by increasing the spatial spread of rabies

O_LIAnimal movement influences the spatial spread of wildlife infectious diseases through host-host contact structure and hence pathogen transmission. Wildlife disease hosts vary in characteristics related to pathogen transmission, which can increase the spread and intensity of disease outbreaks. The consequences of home range size variation on wildlife disease dynamics are poorly understood, but could help to predict disease spread and determine more effective disease management strategies.\nC_LIO_LIWe developed a spatially-explicit individual-based model to examine the effect of variation in host home range size on the spatial spread rate, persistence, and incidence of rabies virus (RABV) in raccoons (Procyon lotor). We tested the hypothesis that host home range area variation decreases vaccination effectiveness in wildlife host populations following pathogen invasion into a vaccination zone.\nC_LIO_LIWe simulated raccoon demography and RABV dynamics across a range of magnitudes and variances in weekly home range radius distributions for raccoons, and compared results to conditions that assumed a fixed host home range area. We examined how variable host home range radius distributions influenced the relative effectiveness of three components of orally-baited raccoon RABV vaccination (ORV) programs--timing and frequency of bait delivery, width of the zone where ORV baits were delivered, and proportion of hosts immunized.\nC_LIO_LIVariability in home range radius distributions increased RABV spread rates by 1.2 - 5.2-fold compared to simulations with fixed radii. More variable host home range radius distributions decreased relative vaccination effectiveness by 71% compared to less variable host home range radius distributions under conventional vaccination conditions. We found that vaccination timing was more influential for vaccination effectiveness than vaccination frequency or vaccination zone width.\nC_LIO_LIOur results suggest that variation in wildlife home range exploration increases the spatial spread and incidence of wildlife disease. Our vaccination results underscore the importance of prioritizing individual-level space use data collection to understand the dynamics of wildlife diseases and plan their effective control and elimination.\nC_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Effects of pathogenic CNVs on biochemical markers: a study on the UK Biobank

BackgroundPathogenic copy number variants (CNVs) increase risk for medical disorders, even among carriers free from neurodevelopmental disorders. The UK Biobank recruited half a million adults who provided samples for biochemical and haematology tests which have recently been released. We wanted to assess how the presence of pathogenic CNVs affects these biochemical test results. MethodsWe called all CNVs from the Affymetrix microarrays and selected a set of 54 CNVs implicated as pathogenic (including their reciprocal deletions/duplications) and present in five or more persons. We used linear regression analysis to establish their association with 28 biochemical and 23 haematology tests. ResultsWe analysed 421k participants who passed our CNV quality control filters and self-reported as white British or Irish descent. There were 268 associations between CNVs and biomarkers that were significant at a false discovery rate of 0.05. Deletions at 16p11.2 had the highest number of significant associations, but several rare CNVs had higher effect sizes indicating that the lack of significance was likely due to the reduced statistical power for rarer events. The distribution of values can be visualised on our interactive website: http://kirov.psycm.cf.ac.uk/. ConclusionsCarriers of many pathogenic CNVs have changes in biochemical and haematology tests, and many of those are associated with adverse health consequences. These changes did not always correlate with increases in diagnosed medical disorders in this population. Carriers should have regular blood tests in order to identify and treat adverse medical consequences early. Levels of cholesterol and related lipids were unexpectedly lower in carriers of CNVs associated with increased weight gain, most likely due to the use of statins by such people.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2019

Analyses of rare and common alleles in parent-proband trios implicate rare missense variants in SLC6A1 in schizophrenia and confirm the involvement of loss of function intolerant and neurodevelopmental disorder genes.

Schizophrenia is a highly polygenic disorder with important contributions coming from both common and rare risk alleles, the latter including CNVs and rare coding variants (RCVs), sometimes occurring as de novo variants (DNVs). We performed DNV analysis in whole exome-sequencing data obtained from a new sample of 613 schizophrenia trios, and combined this with published data for a total of 3,444 trios. Loss-of-function (LoF) DNVs were significantly enriched among 3,488 LoF intolerant genes in our new trio data (rate ratio (RR) (95% CI) = 2.23 (1.31, 3.79); p = 2.2 x 10-3), supporting previous findings. In the full dataset, genes associated with neurodevelopmental disorders (NDD; n=160) were significantly enriched for LoF DNVs (RR (95% CI) = 3.32 (2.0, 5.21); p = 7.4 x 10-6). Within this set of NDD genes, SLC6A1, encoding a gamma-aminobutyric acid transporter, was associated with missense-damaging DNVs (p = 5.2 x 10-5). Using data from a subset of 1,122 trios for which we had genome-wide common variant data, schizophrenia polygenic risk was significantly over-transmitted to probands (p = 2.6 x 10-60), as was bipolar disorder common variant polygenic risk (p = 5.7 x 10-17). We defined carriers of candidate schizophrenia-related DNVs as those with LoF or deletion DNVs in LoF intolerant or NDD genes. These individuals had significantly less over-transmission of common risk alleles than non-carriers (p = 3.5 x 10-4), providing robust support for the hypothesis that this set of DNVs is enriched for those related to schizophrenia.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2019

Genetic association study of psychotic experiences in UK Biobank

Psychotic experiences, such as hallucinations and delusions, are reported by approximately 5%-10% of the general population, though only a small proportion of individuals develop psychotic disorders such as schizophrenia or bipolar disorder. Studying the genetic aetiology of psychotic experiences in the general population, and its relationship with the genetic aetiology of other disorders, may increase our understanding of their pathological significance. Using the population-based UK Biobank sample, we performed the largest genetic association study of psychotic experiences in individuals without a psychotic disorder. We conducted three genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for (i) any psychotic experience (6123 cases vs. 121,843 controls), (ii) distressing psychotic experiences (2143 cases vs. 121,843 controls), and (iii) multiple occurrence psychotic experiences (3337 cases vs. 121,843 controls). Analyses of polygenic risk scores (PRS), genetic correlation, and copy number variation (CNV) were conducted to assess whether genetic liability to psychotic experiences is shared with schizophrenia and/or other neuropsychiatric disorders and traits. GWAS analyses identified four loci associated with psychotic experiences including a locus in Ankyrin-3 (ANK3, OR=1.16, p=3.06 x 10-8) with any psychotic experience and a locus in cannabinoid receptor 2 gene (CNR2, OR=0.66, p=3.78x10-8) with distressing psychotic experiences. PRS analyses identified associations between psychotic experiences and genetic liability for schizophrenia, major depressive disorder, and bipolar disorder, and these associations were stronger for distressing psychotic experiences. Genetic correlation analysis identified significant genetic correlations between psychotic experiences and major depressive disorder, schizophrenia, autism spectrum disorder and a cross-disorder GWAS. Individuals reporting psychotic experiences had an increased burden of CNVs previously associated with schizophrenia (OR=2.04, p=2.49x10-4) and of those associated with neurodevelopmental disorders more widely (OR=1.75, p=1.41x10-3). In conclusion, we identified four genome-wide significant loci in the largest GWAS of psychotic experiences from the population-based UK Biobank sample and found support for a shared genetic aetiology between psychotic experiences and schizophrenia, but also major depressive disorder, bipolar disorder and neurodevelopmental disorders.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2019

Characterization of single gene copy number variants in schizophrenia

Genetic studies of schizophrenia (SCZ) have now implicated numerous genomic loci that contribute to risk including several copy number variants (CNV) of large effect and hundreds of associated loci of small effect. However, in only a few cases has a specific gene been clearly identified. Rare CNV that affect only a single gene offer a potential avenue to discovering specific SCZ risk genes. Here, we use CNV generated from exome-sequencing of 4,913 SCZ cases and 6,188 controls in a homogenous Swedish cohort to assess the contribution of single-gene deletions and duplications to SCZ risk. As previously seen, we found an excess of rare deletions (p = 0.0004) and duplications (p = 0.0006) in SCZ cases compared to controls. When limiting to only single-gene CNV we identified nominally significant excess of deletions (p = 0.04) and duplications (p = 0.03). In an effort to increase the number of single-gene CNV, we reduced strict filtering criteria but required support from two independent CNV calling methods to create an expanded set that showed a significant burden of deletions in 11 out of 22 gene sets previously implicated in SCZ and in the combined set of genes across those sets (p = 0.008). Finally, for the significantly enriched set of voltage-gated calcium channels, we performed an extensive validation of all deletions generated from exome-sequencing as well as any deletion with evidence from previously analyzed genotyping arrays. In total, 4 exonic, single-gene deletions validated in cases and none in controls (p = 0.039), of which all were identified by exome-sequencing. Broadly, these results point to the potential contribution of single-gene CNV to SCZ and the added value of a deeper dive into CNV calls from exome-sequencing.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2018

The role of rare copy number variants in depression

The role of large, rare copy number variants (CNVs) in neurodevelopmental disorders is well-established,1-5 but their contribution to common psychiatric disorders, such as depression, remains unclear. We have previously shown that a substantial proportion of CNV enrichment in schizophrenia is explained by CNVs associated with neurodevelopmental disorders.6, 7 Depression shares genetic risk with schizophrenia8, 9 and is frequently comorbid with neurodevelopmental disorders10, 11, suggesting to us the hypothesis that if CNVs play a role in depression, neurodevelopmental CNVs are those most likely to be associated. We confirmed this in UK Biobank by showing that neurodevelopmental CNVs were associated with depression (24,575 cases, 5.87%; OR=1.36, 95% CI 1.22-1.51, p=1.61x10-8), whilst finding no evidence implicating other CNVs. Four individual neurodevelopmental CNVs increased risk of depression (1q21.1 duplication, PWS duplication, 16p13.11 deletion, 16p11.2 duplication). The association between neurodevelopmental CNVs and depression was partially explained by social deprivation but not by education attainment or physical illness.

neuroscience↗

bioRxiv2018

Schizophrenia-associated genomic copy number variants and subcortical brain volumes in the UK Biobank

Schizophrenia is a highly heritable disorder for which anatomical brain alterations have been repeatedly reported in clinical samples. Unaffected at-risk groups have also been studied in an attempt to identify brain changes that do not reflect reverse causation or treatment effects. However, no robust associations have been observed between neuroanatomical phenotypes and known genetic risk factors for schizophrenia. We tested subcortical brain volume differences between 49 unaffected participants carrying at least one of the 12 copy number variants associated with schizophrenia in UK Biobank and 9,063 individuals who did not carry any of the 93 copy number variants reported to be pathogenic. Our results show that CNV carriers have reduced volume in some of the subcortical structures previously shown to be reduced in schizophrenia. Moreover, these associations were partially accounted for by the association between pathogenic copy number variants and cognitive impairment, which is one of the features of schizophrenia.

neuroscience↗

bioRxiv2018

Effects of pathogenic CNVs on physical traits in participants of the UK Biobank

BackgroundCopy number variants (CNVs) have been shown to increase risk for physical anomalies, developmental, psychiatric and medical disorders. Some of them have been associated with changes in weight, height, and other physical traits. As most studies have been performed on children and young people, these effects of CNVs in adulthood are not well established.\n\nMethodsThe UK Biobank recruited half a million adults who provided a variety of physical measurements. We called all CNVs from the Affymetrix microarrays and selected a set of 54 CNVs implicated as pathogenic (including their reciprocal deletions/duplications) and that were present in five or more persons. Linear regression analysis was used to establish their association with 16 physical traits, relevant to human health.\n\nResults396,725 participants of white British or Irish descent (excluding first-degree relatives) passed our quality control filters. There were 214 CNV/trait associations significant at a false discovery rate of 0.1, most of them novel. These traits are associated with adverse health outcomes: e.g. increased weight, waist-to-hip ratio, pulse rate and body fat composition. Deletions at 16p11.2, 16p12.1, NRXN1 and duplications at 16p13.11 and 22q11.2 produced the highest numbers of significant associations. CNVs at 1q21.1, 2q13, 16p11.2, 16p11.2 distal, 16p12.1, 17p12 and 17q12 demonstrated one or more mirror image effects of deletions versus duplications.\n\nConclusionsCarriers of many CNVs should be monitored for physical traits that increase morbidity and mortality. Genes within these CNVs can give insights into biological processes and therapeutic interventions.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2018

Genetic risk for schizophrenia and developmental delay is associated with shape and microstructure of midline white matter structures

Genomic copy number variants (CNVs) are amongst the most highly penetrant genetic risk factors for neuropsychiatric disorders. The scarcity of carriers of individual CNVs and their phenotypical heterogeneity limits investigations of the associated neural mechanisms and endophenotypes. We applied a novel design based on CNV penetrance for schizophrenia and developmental delay that allows us to identify structural sequelae that are most relevant to neuropsychiatric disorders. Our focus on brain structural abnormalities was based on the hypothesis that convergent mechanisms contributing to neurodevelopmental disorders would likely manifest in the macro- and microstructure of white matter and cortical and subcortical grey matter. 21 adult participants carrying neuropsychiatric risk CNVs (including those located at 22q11.2, 15q11.2, 1q21.1, 16p11.2, and 17q12) and 15 age- and gender matched controls underwent T1-weighted structural, diffusion and quantitative T1 relaxometry MRI.\n\nThe macro- and microstructural properties of the cingulum bundles were associated with penetrance for both developmental delay and schizophrenia, in particular curvature along the anterior-posterior axis (Sz: pcorr=0.026; DD: pcorr=0.035) and intracellular volume fraction (Sz: pcorr=0.019; DD: pcorr=0.064) Further principal component analysis showed alterations in the interrelationships between the volumes of several mid-line white matter structures (Sz: pcorr=0.055; DD, pcorr=0.027). In particular, the ratio of volumes in the splenium and body of the corpus callosum was significantly associated with both penetrance scores (Sz: p=0.037; DD; p=0.006). Our results are consistent with the notion that a significant alteration in developmental trajectories of mid-line white-matter structures constitutes a common neurodevelopmental aberration contributing to risk for schizophrenia and intellectual disability.

neuroscience↗

bioRxiv2018

Medical consequences of pathogenic CNVs in adults: Analysis of the UK Biobank.

BackgroundGenomic copy number variants (CNVs) increase risk for early-onset neurodevelopmental disorders but their impact on medical outcomes in later life is poorly understood. The UK Biobank, with half a million well-phenotyped adults, presents an opportunity to study the medical consequences of CNV in middle and old age.\n\nMethodsWe called 54 CNVs associated with clinical phenotypes or genomic disorders, including their reciprocal deletions or duplications, in all Biobank participants. We used logistic regression analysis to test CNVs for associations with 58 common medical phenotypes.\n\nFindingsCNV carriers had an increased risk of developing 37 of the 58 phenotypes at nominal levels of statistical significance, with 19 associations surviving Bonferroni correction (p<8{middle dot}6x10-4). Tests of each of the 54 CNVs for association with each of the 58 phenotypes identified 18 associations that survived Bonferroni correction (p<1{middle dot}6x10-5) and a further 57 that were associated at a false discovery rate (FDR) threshold of 0{middle dot}1. Thirteen CNVs had three or more significant associations at FDR=0{middle dot}1, with the largest number of phenotypes (N=15) found for deletions at 16p11{middle dot}2. The most common CNVs (frequency 0{middle dot}5-0{middle dot}7%) have no or minimal impact on medical outcomes in adults.\n\nInterpretationSome of the 54 tested CNVs have profound effects on physical health, even in people who have largely escaped early neurodevelopmental outcomes. Our work provides clinicians with a morbidity map of potential outcomes among carriers of these CNVs.\n\nFundingMRC UK, Wellcome Trust UK

genomics↗

bioRxiv2018

Association between schizophrenia and both loss of function and missense mutations in paralog conserved sites of voltage-gated sodium channels

Sequencing studies have highlighted candidate sets of genes involved in schizophrenia, including activity-regulated cytoskeleton-associated protein (ARC) and N-methyl-d-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) complexes. Two genes, SETD1A and RBM12, have also been associated with robust statistical evidence. Larger samples and novel methods for identifying disease-associated missense variants are needed to reveal novel genes and biological mechanisms associated with schizophrenia. We sequenced 187 genes, selected for prior evidence of association with schizophrenia, in a new dataset of 5,207 cases and 4,991 controls. Included were members of ARC and NMDAR post-synaptic protein complexes, as well as voltage-gated sodium and calcium channels. We observed a significant case excess of rare (<0.1% in frequency) loss-of-function (LoF) mutations across all 187 genes (OR = 1.36; Pcorrected = 0.0072) but no individual gene was associated with schizophrenia after correcting for multiple testing. We found novel evidence that LoF and missense variants at paralog conserved sites were enriched in sodium channels (OR = 1.26; P = 0.0035). Meta-analysis of our new data with published sequencing data (11,319 cases, 15,854 controls and 1,136 trios) supported and refined this association to sodium channel alpha subunits (P = 0.0029). Meta-analysis also confirmed association between schizophrenia and rare variants in ARC (P = 4.0 x 10-4) and NMDAR (P = 1.7 x 10-5) synaptic genes. No association was found between rare variants in calcium channels and schizophrenia.\n\nIn one of the largest sequencing studies of schizophrenia to date, we provide novel evidence that multiple voltage-gated sodium channels are involved in schizophrenia pathogenesis, and increase the evidence for association between rare variants in ARC and NMDAR post-synaptic complexes and schizophrenia. Larger samples are required to identify specific genes and variants driving these associations.\n\nAuthor SummaryCommon and rare genetic variations are known to play a substantial role in the development of schizophrenia. Recently, sequencing studies have started to highlight specific sets of genes that are enriched for rare variation in schizophrenia, such as the synaptic gene sets ARC and NMDAR, as well as voltage-gated sodium and calcium channels. To confirm the role of these gene sets in schizophrenia, and identify specific risk genes, we sequenced 187 genes in a new sample of 5,207 schizophrenia cases and 4,991 controls. We find an excess of protein truncating mutations with a frequency <0.1% in all 187 targeted genes, and provide novel evidence that mutations altering amino acids conserved across sodium channel proteins are risk factors for schizophrenia. Through meta-analysing our new data with previously published sequencing data sets, for a total of 11,319 cases, 15,854 controls and 1,136 trios, we increase the evidence for association between rare coding variants and schizophrenia in voltage-gated sodium channels, as well as in synaptic gene sets ARC and NMDAR. Although no individual gene was associated with schizophrenia, these findings suggest larger studies will identify the specific genes driving these associations.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2017

Mapping critical habitat of waterbirds in the Arctic for risk management in respect of IFC PS6

O_LIEconomic development and energy exploration are increasing in the Arctic. Important breeding habitats for many waterbird species, which have previously been relatively undisturbed, are now being subjected to these anthropogenic pressures. The conservation of the habitats and the species they support is a significant challenge for sustainable development. Even if governments and corporates operating in this fragile environment are committed to sustainable development, there is little information available to avoid, mitigate and manage environmental risk and impacts. Taking a risk management perspective, we followed the International Finance Corporations (IFC) Performance Standard 6 (PS6) criteria on Environmental and Social Sustainability and developed an approach to identify \"critical habitat\", as defined in IFC PS6, for waterbird species breeding in the Arctic. While the range of these waterbirds is roughly known, more accuracy is needed for proper risk assessment.\nC_LIO_LIWe have therefore gone a step further by modelling suitable habitat within these ranges. Depending on the relevance of the species for IFC PS6 and the level of certainty we separated the classes likely and potential critical habitat. We tested the approach for Russian breeding populations of five Anatidae species (White-fronted Goose Anser albifrons, Lesser White-fronted Goose Anser erythropus, Brent Goose Branta bernicla, Redbreasted Goose Branta ruficollis and Bewicks Swan Cygnus columbianus bewicki). Likely critical habitats were identified through a review of literature and available data for these waterbird species and multi-species congregations. To address the information gap for most of the Russian Arctic a species distribution modelling approach was used. The outputs of this approach were labelled as potential critical habitat, indicating the lower level of certainty than likely critical habitat.\nC_LIO_LIBased on existing information the amount of likely critical habitat is estimated to be at least x,xxx,xxx km2. For the five Anatidae species, X,XXX,XXX km2 potential critical habitat was identified; 95% of these areas were outside of the area boundaries of likely critical habitat for the species.\nC_LIO_LIInsufficient data in the east of the study area did affect the results, as some areas known to support breeding populations were not identified as suitable. Conversely, species distributions may be overpredicted in other areas; It should also be recognized that the analyzed species currently have depressed populations and may therefore only utilize a proportion of suitable habitat available.\nC_LIO_LIFor risk assessment purposes however, it is better to predict false positives, rather than false negatives. The study indicates that there are large areas in the Arctic that are potentially important for each of the Anatidae species modelled, but are not yet recognised as key important areas. The results confirm that there is still much to learn about waterbird distribution and abundance in the Russian Arctic.\nC_LIO_LISynthesis and applications The critical habitat maps produced do not just provide a new source of information for the economic development sector, but provide it in a way that is relevant to the sector and directly applicable. The maps are useful for initial risk assessments of potential developments, to identify likely impacts and to consider mitigation options, in accordance with IFC PS6. Risk assessors should exercise caution and detailed surveys for any development in areas predicted to be suitable for each species should be carried out.\nC_LI

ecology↗