bioRxiv Science⌕ Search

Biology subjects

Queroue, M.

Publications and source records attributed to Queroue, M..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

BOTTOM-UP EFFECTS AND DENSITY DEPENDENCE DRIVE THE DYNAMIC OF AN ANTARCTIC SEABIRD PREDATOR-PREY SYSTEM

Understanding how populations respond to variability in environmental conditions and interspecific interactions is one of the biggest challenges of population ecology, particularly in the context of global change. Although several studies have investigated population responses to climate change, very few have explicitly integrated interspecific relationships when studying these responses. Here, we aim to understand the combined effects of inter- and intraspecific interactions and environmental conditions on the demographic parameters of a prey-predator system of three sympatric seabird populations breeding in Antarctica: the south polar skua (Catharacta maccormicki), and its two main preys during the breeding season, the Adelie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) and the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We built a two-species integrated population model (IPM) with 31 years of capture-recapture and count data, and provided a framework that allows estimating demographic parameters and abundance of a predator-prey system in a context where capture-recapture data are not available for one species. Our results showed that predator-prey interactions and local environmental conditions affect differently south polar skuas depending on their breeding state of the previous year. Concerning prey-predator relationships, the number of Adelie penguin breeding pairs showed a positive effect on south polar skua survival and breeding probability, and the number of emperor penguin dead chicks showed a positive effect on the breeding success of south polar skuas. In contrast, there was no evidence for an effect of the number of south polar skuas on the demography of Adelie penguins. We also found an important impact of sea ice conditions on both the dynamics of south polar skuas and Adelie penguins. Our results suggest that this prey-predator system is mostly driven by bottom-up processes and local environmental conditions.

ecology↗

Multispecies integrated population model reveals bottom-up dynamics in a seabird predator-prey system

Assessing the effects of climate and interspecific relationships on communities is challenging because of the complex interplay between species population dynamics, their interactions, and the need to integrate information across several biological levels (individuals - populations - communities). Usually used to quantify species interactions, integrated population models (IPMs) have recently been extended to communities. These models allow fitting multispecies matrix models to data from multiple sources while simultaneously accounting for various sources of uncertainty in each data source. We used multispecies IPMs accommodating climate conditions to quantify the relative contribution of climate vs. interspecific interactions on demographic parameters, such as survival and breeding success, in the dynamics of a predator-prey system. We considered a stage-structured predator-prey system combining 22 years of capture-recapture data and population counts of two seabirds, the Brown Skua (Catharacta lonnbergi) and its main prey the Blue Petrel (Halobaena caerulea) both breeding on the Kerguelen Islands in the Southern Ocean. Our results showed that climate and predator-prey interactions drive the demography of skuas and petrels in different ways. The breeding success of skuas appeared to be largely driven by the number of petrels and to a lesser extent by intraspecific density-dependence. In contrast, there was no evidence of predation effects on the demographic parameters of petrels, which were affected by oceanographic factors (chlorophyll a and sea surface temperature anomalies). We conclude that bottom-up mechanisms are the main drivers of this skua-petrel system. We discuss the mechanisms by which climate variability and predator-prey relationships may affect the demographic parameters of these seabirds. Taking into account both species interactions and environmental covariates in the same analysis improved our understanding of species dynamics.

ecology↗