Biology subjects

Pybus, O. G.

Publications and source records attributed to Pybus, O. G..

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

The emergence and molecular evolution of H5N1 influenza viruses in United States dairy cattle

Prior to 2024, highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses circulated predominantly in wild birds and poultry. In 2024 and 2025, 2.3.4.4b genotypes B3.13 and D1.1 were detected in United States dairy cattle. Using whole-genome and segment-specific phylodynamic inference, we estimate that B3.13 and D1.1 spilled over from wild birds into dairy cattle in late 2023 and late 2024, respectively. Spillover occurred shortly after the formation of the reassortant genotypes and was followed by months of cryptic transmission prior to detection. We found that both B3.13 and D1.1 evolved at higher rates in cattle relative to birds, primarily due to relaxed purifying selection. Site-specific analyses identified genomic sites under positive selection in cattle relative to birds, indicating adaptation and likely contributing to improved viral fitness after spillover. Intensified genomic surveillance in dairy cattle is essential as population immunity introduces additional selection pressures, with ever-changing risk for human emergence.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2025

Comparative performance of novel viral landscape phylogeography approaches

The fast rate of evolution in RNA viruses implies that their evolutionary and ecological processes occur on the same time scale. Genome sequences of these pathogens can therefore contain information about the processes that govern their transmission and dispersal. In particular, landscape phylogeographic approaches use phylogeographic reconstructions to investigate the impact of environmental factors and variables on the spatial spread of viruses. Here, we extend and improve existing approaches and develop three novel landscape phylogeographic methods that can test the impact of continuous environmental factors on the diffusion velocity of viral lineages. In order to evaluate the different methods, we also implemented two simulation frameworks to test and compare their statistical performance. The results enable us to formulate clear guidelines for the use of three complementary landscape phylogeographic approaches that have sufficient statistical power and low rates of false positives. Our open-source methods are available to the scientific community and can be used to investigate the drivers of viral spread, with potential benefits for understanding virus epidemiology and designing tailored intervention strategies.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

Association of poultry vaccination with the interspecies transmission and molecular evolution of H5 subtype avian influenza virus

The effectiveness of vaccinating poultry in preventing the transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (AIVs) has been questioned for years and its impact on wild birds is uncertain 1-3. Here we reconstruct movements of H5 subtype AIV lineages among vaccinated poultry, unvaccinated poultry, and wild birds, worldwide from 1996 to 2023. We find that lineage transitions among host types are lagged and that movements from wild birds to unvaccinated poultry were more frequent than those from wild birds to vaccinated poultry. However, we also find that the HA gene of the AIV lineage that circulated predominately among Chinese poultry with high vaccination coverage underwent faster evolution and greater nonsynonymous divergence than other lineages. Further, this Chinese poultry lineage contained more codons inferred to be under positive selection, including at known antigenic sites, and its rates of nonsynonymous divergence and adaptative fixation increased after mass poultry vaccination began. Our results indicate that the epidemiological, ecological and evolutionary consequences of widespread AIV vaccination in poultry may be linked in complex ways, and that much work is needed to better understand how such interventions may affect AIV transmission to, within and from wild birds.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

The evolutionary history of hepaciviruses

In the search for natural reservoirs of hepatitis C virus (HCV), a broad diversity of non-human viruses within the Hepacivirus genus has been uncovered. However, the evolutionary dynamics that shaped the diversity and timescale of hepaciviruses evolution remain elusive. To gain further insights into the origins and evolution of this genus, we screened a large dataset of wild mammal samples (n = 1,672) from Africa and Asia, and generated 34 full-length hepacivirus genomes. Phylogenetic analysis of these data together with publicly available genomes emphasizes the importance of rodents as hepacivirus hosts and we identify 13 rodent species and 3 rodent genera (in Cricetidae and Muridae families) as novel hosts of hepaciviruses. Through co-phylogenetic analyses, we demonstrate that hepacivirus diversity has been affected by cross-species transmission events against the backdrop of detectable signal of virus-host co-divergence in the deep evolutionary history. Using a Bayesian phylogenetic multidimensional scaling approach, we explore the extent to which host relatedness and geographic distances have structured present-day hepacivirus diversity. Our results provide evidence for a substantial structuring of mammalian hepacivirus diversity by host as well as geography, with a somewhat more irregular diffusion process in geographic space. Finally, using a mechanistic model that accounts for substitution saturation, we provide the first formal estimates of the timescale of hepacivirus evolution and estimate the origin of the genus to be about 22 million years ago. Our results offer a comprehensive overview of the micro- and macroevolutionary processes that have shaped hepacivirus diversity and enhance our understanding of the long-term evolution of the Hepacivirus genus. SignificanceSince the discovery of Hepatitis C virus, the search for animal virus homologues has gained significant traction, opening up new opportunities to study their origins and long-term evolutionary dynamics. Capitalizing on a large-scale screening of wild mammals, and genomic sequencing, we expand the novel rodent host range of hepaciviruses and document further virus diversity. We infer a significant influence of frequent cross-species transmission as well as some signal for virus-host co-divergence, and find comparative host and geographic structure. We also provide the first formal estimates of the timescale of hepaciviruses indicating an origin of about 22 million years ago. Our study offers new insights in hepacivirus evolutionary dynamics with broadly applicable methods that can support future research in virus evolution.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2023

Genetic diversity, recombination and cross-species transmission of a waterbird gammacoronavirus in the wild

2.Viruses emerging from wildlife can cause outbreaks in humans and domesticated animals. Predicting the emergence of future pathogens and mitigating their impacts requires an understanding of what shapes virus diversity and dynamics in wildlife reservoirs. In order to better understand coronavirus ecology in wild species, we sampled birds within a coastal freshwater lagoon habitat across five years, focussing on a large population of mute swans (Cygnus olor) and the diverse species that they interact with. We discovered and characterised the full genome of a divergent gammacoronavirus belonging to the Goose coronavirus CB17 species. We investigated the genetic diversity and dynamics of this gammacoronavirus using untargeted metagenomic sequencing of 223 fecal samples from swans of known age and sex, and RT-PCR screening of 1632 additional bird samples. The virus circulated persistently within the bird community; virus prevalence in mute swans exhibited seasonal variations, but did not change with swan age-class or epidemiological year. One whole genome was fully characterised, and revealed that the virus originated from a recombination event involving an undescribed gammacoronavirus species. Multiple lineages of this gammacoronavirus co-circulated within our study population. Viruses from this species have recently been detected in aquatic birds from both the Anatidae and Rallidae families, implying that host species habitat sharing may be important in shaping virus host range. As the host range of the Goose coronavirus CB17 species is not limited to geese, we propose that this species name should be updated to "Waterbird gammacoronavirus 1". Non-invasive sampling of bird coronaviruses may provide a tractable model system for understanding the evolutionary and cross-species dynamics of coronaviruses.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Synchrony of Bird Migration with Avian Influenza Global Spread; Implications for Vulnerable Bird Orders

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) A H5 clade 2.3.4.4 has caused worldwide outbreaks in domestic poultry, occasional spillover to humans, and increasing deaths of diverse species of wild birds since 2014. Wild bird migration is currently acknowledged as an important ecological process contributing to the global dispersal of HPAIV H5. However, it is unclear how seasonal bird migration facilitates global virus dispersal, and which avian species are exposed to HPAI H5 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses and where. To shed light on ongoing global outbreaks, we sought to explore these questions through phylodynamic analyses based on empirical data of bird movement tracking and virus genome sequences. First, based on viral phylogeography and bird migration networks, we demonstrate that seasonal bird migration can explain salient features of the global dispersal of clade 2.3.4.4. Second, we detect synchrony between the seasonality of bird annual cycle phases and virus lineage movements. We reveal the differing vulnerable bird orders at geographical origins and destinations of HPAIV H5 lineage movements. Notably, we highlight the potential importance of relatively under-discussed Suliformes and Ciconiiformes, in addition to Anseriformes and Charadriiformes, in virus lineage movements. Our study provides a phylodynamic framework that links the bird movement ecology and genomic epidemiology of avian influenza; it highlights the importance of integrating bird behaviour and life history in avian influenza studies.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Discovery of Flaviviridae-derived endogenous viral elements in shrew genomes provide novel insights into Pestivirus ancient history

As viral genomic imprints in host genomes, endogenous viral elements (EVEs) shed light on the deep evolutionary history of viruses, ancestral host ranges, and ancient viral-host interactions. In addition, they may provide crucial information for calibrating viral evolutionary timescales. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive in silico screening of a large dataset of available mammalian genomes for EVEs deriving from members of the viral family Flaviviridae, an important group of viruses including well-known human pathogens. We identified two novel pestivirus-like EVEs in the reference genome of the Indochinese shrew (Crocidura indochinensis). Homologs of these novel EVEs were subsequently detected in vivo by molecular detection and sequencing in 27 shrew species, including 26 species representing a wide distribution within the Crocidurinae subfamily and one in the Soricinae subfamily. Based on this wide distribution, we estimate that the integration event occurred before the last common ancestor of the subfamily, about 10.8 million years ago, attesting to an ancient origin of pestiviruses and Flaviviridae in general. Moreover, we provide the first description of Flaviviridae-derived EVEs in mammals even though the family encompasses numerous mammal-infecting members, including major human pathogens such as Zika, dengue, or hepatitis C viruses. This also suggests that shrews were past and perhaps also current natural reservoirs of pestiviruses. Taken together, our results expand the current known Pestivirus host range and provide novel insight into the ancient evolutionary history of pestiviruses and the Flaviviridae family in general.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2022

Seasonal dynamics of the wild rodent faecal virome

Viral discovery studies in wild animals often rely on cross-sectional surveys at a single time point. As a result, our understanding of the temporal stability of wild animal viromes remains poorly resolved. While studies of single host-virus systems indicate that host and environmental factors influence seasonal virus transmission dynamics, comparable insights for whole viral communities in multiple hosts are lacking. Leveraging non-invasive faecal samples from a long-term wild rodent study, we characterised viral communities of three common European rodent species (Apodemus sylvaticus, A. flavicollis, and M. glareolus) living in temperate woodland over a single year. Our findings indicate that a substantial fraction of the rodent virome is seasonally transient and associated with vertebrate or bacteria hosts. Further analyses of one of the most abundant virus families, Picornaviruses, show pronounced temporal changes in viral richness and diversity, which were associated with concurrent and up to [~]3-month lags in host density, ambient temperature, rainfall and humidity, suggesting complex feedbacks from the host and environmental factors on virus transmission and shedding in seasonal habitats. Overall, this study emphasizes the importance of understanding the seasonal dynamics of wild animal viromes in order to better predict and mitigate zoonotic risks.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Evolutionary features of a prolific subtype of avian influenza A virus in European waterfowl

Avian influenza A virus (AIV) is ubiquitous in waterfowl, and detected annually at high prevalence in waterfowl during the Northern Hemipshere autumn. Some AIV subtypes are globally common in waterfowl, such as H3N8, H4N6, and H6N2, and are detected in the same populations at high frequency, annually. In order to investigate genetic features associated to the long-term maintenance of common subtypes in migratory ducks, we sequenced 248 H4 viruses isolated across 8 years (2002-2009) from Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) sampled in southeast Sweden. Phylogenetic analyses showed that both H4 and N6 sequences fell into in three distinct lineages, structured by year of isolation. Specifically, across the eight years of the study, we observed lineage replacement, whereby a different HA lineage circulated in the population each year. Analysis of deduced amino acid sequences of the HA lineages illustrated key differences in regions of the globular head of hemagglutinin that overlap with established antigentic sites in homologous hemagglutinin H3, suggesting the possibility of antigenic differences among these HA lineages. Beyond HA, lineage replacement was common to all segments, such that novel genome constellations were detected across years. A dominant genome constellation would rapidly amplify in the duck population, followed by unlinking of gene segments as a result of reassortment within 2-3 weeks following introduction. These data help reveal the evolutionary dynamics exhibited by AIV on both annual and decadal scales in an important reservoir host.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Identification of site-specific evolutionary trajectories shared across human betacoronaviruses

Comparing the evolution of distantly related viruses can provide insights into common adaptive processes related to shared ecological niches. Phylogenetic approaches, coupled with other molecular evolution tools, can help identify mutations informative on adaptation, whilst the structural contextualization of these to functional sites of proteins may help gain insight into their biological properties. Two zoonotic betacoronaviruses capable of sustained human-to-human transmission have caused pandemics in recent times (SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2), whilst a third virus (MERS-CoV) is responsible for sporadic outbreaks linked to animal infections. Moreover, two other betacoronaviruses have circulated endemically in humans for decades (HKU1 and OC43). To search for evidence of adaptive convergence between established and emerging betacoronaviruses capable of sustained human-to-human transmission (HKU1, OC43, SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2), we developed a methodological pipeline to classify shared non-synonymous mutations as putatively denoting homoplasy (repeated mutations that do not share direct common ancestry) or stepwise evolution (sequential mutations leading towards a novel genotype). In parallel, we look for evidence of positive selection, and draw upon protein structure data to identify potential biological implications. We find 30 mutations, with four of these [codon sites 18121 (nsp14/residue 28), 21623 (spike/21), 21635 (spike/25) and 23948 (spike/796); SARS-CoV-2 genome numbering] displaying evolution under positive selection and proximity to functional protein regions. Our findings shed light on potential mechanisms underlying betacoronavirus adaptation to the human host and pinpoint common mutational pathways that may occur during establishment of human endemicity.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Human B cell lineages engaged by germinal centers following influenza vaccination are measurably evolving

Poor efficacy of seasonal influenza virus vaccines is often attributed to pre-existing immunity interfering with the persistence and maturation of vaccine-induced B cell responses.1 Consistent with this notion, no significant increase in somatic hypermutation (SHM) among circulating influenza-binding lineages was detected following seasonal vaccination in humans.2 A more recent study showed that at least a subset of vaccine-induced B cell lineages are recruited into germinal centers (GCs) following vaccination, suggesting that affinity maturation of these lineages can occur.3 Crucially, however, it has not been demonstrated whether these GC-engaged lineages actually accumulate additional SHM. Here, we address this point using a phylogenetic test of measurable evolution. We first validate this test through simulations and demonstrate measurable B cell evolution in known examples of affinity maturation such as the response to HIV infection. We then show that lineages in the blood are rarely measurably evolving following influenza vaccination, but that GC-engaged lineages - likely derived from memory B cells - are frequently measurably evolving. These findings confirm that seasonal influenza virus vaccination can stimulate additional SHM among responding B cell lineages.

immunology↗

bioRxiv2020

A computationally tractable birth-death model that combines phylogenetic and epidemiological data

Inferring the dynamics of pathogen transmission during an outbreak is an important problem in both infectious disease epidemiology. In mathematical epidemiology, estimates are often informed by time series of confirmed cases, while in phylodynamics genetic sequences of the pathogen, sampled through time, are the primary data source. Each data type provides different, and potentially complementary, insight; recent studies have recognised that combining data sources can improve estimates of the transmission rate and number of infected individuals. However, inference methods are typically highly specialised and field-specific and are either computationally prohibitive or require intensive simulation, limiting their real-time utility. We present a novel birth-death phylogenetic model and derive a tractable analytic approximation of its likelihood, the computational complexity of which is linear in the size of the dataset. This approach combines epidemiological and phylodynamic data to produce estimates of key parameters of transmission dynamics and the number of unreported infections. Using simulated data we show (a) that the approximation agrees well with existing methods, (b) validate the claim of linear complexity and (c) explore robustness to model misspecification. This approximation facilitates inference on large datasets, which is increasingly important as large genomic sequence datasets become commonplace. Author summaryMathematical epidemiologists typically studies time series of cases, ie the epidemic curve, to understand the spread of pathogens. Genetic epidemiologists study similar problems but do so using measurements of the genetic sequence of the pathogen which also contain information about the transmission process. There have been many attempts to unite these approaches so that both data sources can be utilised. However, striking a suitable balance between model flexibility and fidelity, in a way that is computationally tractable, has proven challenging; there are several competing methods but for large datasets they are intractable. As sequencing of pathogen genomes becomes more common, and an increasing amount of epidemiological data is collected, this situation will only be exacerbated. To bridge the gap between the time series and genomic methods we developed an approximation scheme, called TimTam, which can accurately and efficiently estimate key features of an epidemic such as the prevalence of the infection and the effective reproduction number, ie how many people are currently infected and the degree to which the infection is spreading.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2020

Global prevalence and phylogeny of hepatitis B virus (HBV) drug and vaccine resistance mutations

IntroductionVaccination and anti-viral therapy with nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) are key approaches to reducing the morbidity, mortality and transmission of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. However, the efficacy of these interventions may be reduced by the emergence of drug resistance-associated mutations (RAMs) and/or vaccine escape mutations (VEMs). We have assimilated data on the global prevalence and distribution of HBV RAMs/VEMs from publicly available data and explored the evolution of these mutations. MethodsWe analysed sequences downloaded from the Hepatitis B Virus Database, and calculated prevalence of 41 RAMs and 38 VEMs catalogued from published studies. We generated maximum likelihood phylogenetic trees and used treeBreaker to investigate the distribution of selected mutations across tree branches. We performed phylogenetic molecular clock analyses using BEAST to estimate the age of mutations. ResultsRAM M204I/V had the highest prevalence, occurring in 3.8% (109/2838) of all HBV sequences in our dataset, and a significantly higher rate in genotype C sequence at 5.4% (60/1102, p=0.0007). VEMs had an overall prevalence of 1.3% (37/2837) and had the highest prevalence in genotype C and in Asia at 2.2% (24/1102; p=0.002) and 1.6% (34/2109; p=0.009) respectively. Phylogenetic analysis suggested that most RAM/VEMs arose independently, however RAMs including A194T, M204V and L180M formed clusters in genotype B. We show evidence that polymorphisms associated with drug and vaccine resistance may have been present in the mid 20th century suggesting that they can arise independently of treatment/ vaccine exposure. DiscussionHBV RAMs/VEMs have been found globally and across genotypes, with the highest prevalence observed in genotype C variants. Screening for the genotype and for resistant mutations may help to improve stratified patient treatment. As NAs and HBV vaccines are increasingly being deployed for HBV prevention and treatment, monitoring for resistance and advocating for better treatment regimens for HBV remains essential.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2020

Phylogenetic analysis of migration, differentiation, and class switching in B cells

B cells undergo rapid mutation and selection for antibody binding affinity when producing antibodies capable of neutralizing pathogens. This evolutionary process can be intermixed with migration between tissues, differentiation between cellular subsets, and switching between functional isotypes. B cell receptor (BCR) sequence data has the potential to elucidate important information about these processes. However, there is currently no robust, generalizable framework for making such inferences from BCR sequence data. To address this, we develop three parsimony-based summary statistics to characterize migration, differentiation, and isotype switching along B cell phylogenetic trees. We use simulations to demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach. We then use this framework to infer patterns of cellular differentiation and isotype switching from high throughput BCR sequence datasets obtained from patients in a study of HIV infection and a study of food allergy. These methods are implemented in the R package dowser, available at https://bitbucket.org/kleinstein/dowser. Author summaryB cells produce high affinity antibodies through an evolutionary process of mutation and selection during adaptive immune responses. Migration between tissues, differentiation to cellular subtypes, and switching between different antibody isotypes can be important factors in shaping the role B cells play in response to infection, autoimmune disease, and allergies. B cell receptor (BCR) sequence data has the potential to elucidate important information about these processes. However, there is currently no robust, generalizable framework for making such inferences from BCR sequence data. Here, we develop three parsimony-based summary statistics to characterize migration, differentiation, and isotype switching along B cell phylogenetic trees. Using simulations, we confirm the effectiveness of our approach, as well as identify some caveats. We further use these summary statistics to investigate patterns of cellular differentiation in three HIV patients, and patterns of isotype switching in an individual with food allergies. Our methods are released in the R package dowser: https://bitbucket.org/kleinstein/dowser.

immunology↗

bioRxiv2020

Identification of a common deletion in the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2

Two notable features have been identified in the SARS-CoV-2 genome: (1) the receptor binding domain of SARS-CoV-2; (2) a unique insertion of twelve nucleotide or four amino acids (PRRA) at the S1 and S2 boundary. For the first feature, the similar RBD identified in SARs-like virus from pangolin suggests the RBD in SARS-CoV-2 may already exist in animal host(s) before it transmitted into human. The left puzzle is the history and function of the insertion at S1/S2 boundary, which is uniquely identified in SARS-CoV-2. In this study, we identified two variants from the first Guangdong SARS-CoV-2 cell strain, with deletion mutations on polybasic cleavage site (PRRAR) and its flank sites. More extensive screening indicates the deletion at the flank sites of PRRAR could be detected in 3 of 68 clinical samples and half of 22 in vitro isolated viral strains. These data indicate (1) the deletion of QTQTN, at the flank of polybasic cleavage site, is likely benefit the SARS-CoV-2 replication or infection in vitro but under strong purification selection in vivo since it is rarely identified in clinical samples; (2) there could be a very efficient mechanism for deleting this region from viral genome as the variants losing 23585-23599 is commonly detected after two rounds of cell passage. The mechanistic explanation for this in vitro adaptation and in vivo purification processes (or reverse) that led to such genomic changes in SARS-CoV-2 requires further work. Nonetheless, this study has provided valuable clues to aid further investigation of spike protein function and virus evolution. The deletion mutation identified in vitro isolation should be also noted for current vaccine development.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2019

Phylogeographic and phylodynamic approaches to epidemiological hypothesis testing

Computational analyses of pathogen genomes are increasingly used to unravel the dispersal history and transmission dynamics of epidemics. Here, we show how to go beyond historical reconstructions and use spatially-explicit phylogeographic and phylodynamic approaches to formally test epidemiological hypotheses. We illustrate our approach by focusing on the West Nile virus (WNV) spread in North America that has been responsible for substantial impacts on public, veterinary, and wildlife health. WNV isolates have been sampled at various times and locations across North America since its introduction to New York twenty years ago. We exploit this genetic data repository to demonstrate that factors hypothesised to affect viral dispersal and demography can be formally tested. Specifically, we detail and apply an analytical workflow consisting of state-of-the art methods that we further improve to test the impact of environmental factors on the dispersal locations, velocity, and frequency of viral lineages, as well as on the genetic diversity of the viral population through time. We find that WNV lineages tend to disperse faster in areas with higher temperatures and we identify temporal variation in temperature as a main predictor of viral genetic diversity through time. Using a simulation procedure, we find no evidence that viral lineages preferentially circulate within the same migratory bird flyway, suggesting a substantial role for non-migratory birds or mosquito dispersal along the longitudinal gradient. Finally, we also separately apply our testing approaches on the three WNV genotypes that circulated in North America in order to understand and compare their dispersal ability. Our study demonstrates that the development and application of statistical approaches, coupled with comprehensive pathogen genomic data, can address epidemiological questions that might otherwise be difficult or impractically expensive to answer.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2019

Early identification of dengue virus lineage replacement in Brazil using portable genomic surveillance

Over 400 million people are estimated to be at risk of acquiring dengue virus (DENV). Despite efforts to mitigate the impact of DENV epidemics, the virus remains a public health problem in the Americas: more than one million DENV cases were reported in the continent between January and July 2019 DENV was first detected in Brazil in 1982, and Brazil has reported 88% (1,127,244 cases) of all DENV cases in the Americas during 2019 to date. Sao Paulo state in the southeast of Brazil has reported nearly half of all DENV infections in the country. Here we characterised the genetic diversity of DENV strains circulating in Sao Paulo state in 2019, at the epicentre of the ongoing DENV epidemic. Using portable nanopore sequencing we generated 20 new DENV genome sequences from viremic patients with suspected dengue infection residing in two of the most-affected municipalities, Araraquara and Sao Jose do Rio Preto. We conducted a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis with 1,630 global DENV strains to better understand the evolutionary history of the DENV lineages that currently circulate in the region. The new outbreak strains were classified as DENV2 genotype III (American/Asian genotype). Notably, phylogenetic analysis indicated that the 2019 outbreak is the result of a novel DENV lineage that was recently introduced to Brazil from the Caribbean region. Our genetic analysis further indicates that the introduction and onwards spread of the outbreak lineage (named here DENV2-III BR-4) indicates a new DENV2 lineage replacement in Brazil. Dating phylogeographic analysis suggests that DENV2-III BR-4 was introduced to Brazil in or around early 2014, possibly from the Caribbean region. Our study describes the early detection of a newly introduced and rapidly-expanding DENV2 virus lineage in Brazil.\n\nAuthor SummaryDengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease of humans. The disease is caused by the dengue virus (DENV) that is classified within genus Flavivirus. DENV infections are caused by 4 serotypes (DENV 1-4) that are genetically related but antigenically distinct. Dengue infection results in a variety of symptoms that range from mild fever to dengue hemorrhagic fever and/or dengue shock syndrome (DHF/DSS). Clinical outcomes are associated with different types of infection, viral serotypes, genotypes, lineages, and host genetic factors. As a re-emerging infectious disease, DENV has become a serious threat to public health in the Americas, and particularly in Brazil, where it was introduced in the 1980s and became well established due to the country-wide re-infestation of the Aedes aegypti mosquito vector species. During the first six months of 2019, 1,282,183 DENV cases were reported in the Americas, with Brazil reporting a staggering 1,127,244 (88%) of all dengue cases in the continent. To date, no information exists on the genetic composition of the DENV lineage or lineages causing the current epidemic. Here we use portable sequencing to rapidly generate virus genome data from cases occurring in two different are severely-affected municipalities in Sao Paulo state, Brazil. We find that the 2019 dengue outbreak in Brazil is caused by a newly introduced DENV serotype 2 genotype III (Asian/American) that seems to be replacing previously-circulating DENV2 lineages. We discuss the potential implications of our results regarding the current outbreak in the context of previous outbreaks in the same region.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2019

An integrated framework for the joint inference of demographic history and sampling intensity from genealogies or genetic sequences

Estimating past population dynamics from molecular sequences that have been sampled longitudinally through time is an important problem in infectious disease epidemiology, molecular ecology and macroevolution. Popular solutions, such as the skyline and skygrid methods, infer past effective population sizes from the coalescent event times of phylogenies reconstructed from sampled sequences, but assume that sequence sampling times are uninformative about population size changes. Recent work has started to question this assumption by exploring how sampling time information can aid coalescent inference. Here we develop, investigate, and implement a new skyline method, termed the epoch sampling skyline plot (ESP), to jointly estimate the dynamics of population size and sampling rate through time. The ESP is inspired by real-world data collection practices and comprises a flexible model in which the sequence sampling rate is proportional to the population size within an epoch but can change discontinuously between epochs. We show that the ESP is accurate under several realistic sampling protocols and we prove analytically that it can at least double the best precision achievable by standard approaches. We generalise the ESP to incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty in a new Bayesian package (BESP) in BEAST2. We re-examine two well-studied empirical datasets from virus epidemiology and molecular evolution and find that the BESP improves upon previous coalescent estimators and generates new, biologically-useful insights into the sampling protocols underpinning these datasets. Sequence sampling times provide a rich source of information for coalescent inference that will become increasingly important as sequence collection intensifies and becomes more formalised.

genetics↗