Purse, B. V. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2022

Using mechanistic models to highlight research priorities for tick-borne zoonotic diseases: Improving our understanding of the ecology and maintenance of Kyasanur Forest Disease in India

The risk of spillover of zoonotic diseases to humans is changing in response to multiple environmental and societal drivers, particularly in tropical regions where the burden of neglected zoonotic diseases is highest and land use change and forest conversion is occurring most rapidly. In these regions, neglected zoonotic diseases can have significant impacts on poor and marginalised populations in low-resource settings but ultimately receive less attention and funding for research and interventions. As such, effective control measures and interventions are often hindered by a limited ecological evidence base, which results in a limited understanding of epidemiologically relevant hosts or vectors and the processes that contribute to the maintenance of pathogens and spillover to humans. Here, we develop a generalisable next generation matrix modelling framework to better understand the transmission processes and hosts that have the greatest contribution to the maintenance of tick-borne diseases with the aim of improving the ecological evidence base and framing future research priorities for tick-borne diseases. Using this model we explore the relative contribution of different host groups and transmission routes to the maintenance of a neglected zoonotic tick-borne disease, Kyasanur Forest Disease Virus (KFD). The results highlight the potential importance of transovarial transmission and small mammals and birds in maintaining this disease. This contradicts previous hypotheses that primates play an important role influencing the distribution of infected ticks. There is also a suggestion that risk could vary across different habitat types. In light of these results we outline the key knowledge gaps for this system and future research priorities that would aid in informing effective interventions and control measures.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Small scale variability in soil moisture drives infection of vulnerable juniper populations by invasive forest pathogen

The oomycete plant pathogen, Phytophthora austrocedri, is an aggressive killer of cypress trees causing severe mortality of Chilean cedar (Austrocedrus chilensis) in Argentina since the 1940s and now common juniper (Juniperus communis s.l.) in the UK. Rapid mortality of key UK juniper populations was first observed in the early 2000s; the causal agent of mortality was confirmed as P. austrocedri in 2012 and the pathogen has now been widely detected - but is not ubiquitous - in juniper populations across Scotland and England. Although juniper has a broad distribution across the northern hemisphere, the UK incidence of P. austrocedri remains the only confirmed infection of juniper populations globally. Juniper is an important species for biodiversity, so it is imperative to understand the abiotic and biotic drivers of emergent P. austrocedri infection to inform detection, containment and conservation strategies to manage juniper populations across the full extent of its range. As management of UK juniper populations is primarily conducted at a local level, we investigated field scale drivers of disease - in three, geographically separate populations with different infection histories. Variation in the proportion of juniper showing symptoms - discoloured or dead foliage - was measured using stratified sampling across along key environmental gradients within each 100-hectare population, including juniper density identified from aerial imagery. Potential predictors of infection included altitude, slope, distance to nearest watercourse, soil moisture (mean percentage volumetric water content), area of red deer browsing damage and area of commonly associated vascular plant species. We assessed support in the data for alternative models explaining the spatial distribution of P. austrocedri symptoms using full subset covariate selection and Deviance Information Criteria (DIC). Despite differences in environmental gradients and infection histories between populations, area of juniper symptomatic for P. austrocedri increased with waterlogging, increasing with soil moisture in sites where soils had higher peat or clay contents, and decreasing with proximity to watercourses where sites had shallower, sandier soils. These results are consistent with key drivers identified at both local and landscape scale in Chilean cedar. Our approach enables identification of site-specific disease management strategies including prioritisation of inspections in microsites with high soil moisture and promoting conservation measures such as creation of sites for natural regeneration in drier microsites to minimise pathogen spread and maximise the resilience of existing juniper populations.

ecology↗